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The Vikings celebrated the success of first round pick Jordan Addison (70 catches, 10 touchdowns) and reaped the rewards for their faith in undrafted rookie Ivan Pace Jr. in 2023.
But the reality is that those two players are among the too-few examples of impactful young players who have debuted for the Vikings in the last two years since Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and Kevin O'Connell were hired.
Combined with strong contributions from young players on every other team in the NFC North, the result has been a Vikings team that is falling fast in the division. The lack of rookie production has been noticeable on the field for the Vikings in the last two years.
It is even more damning — as I talked about on Thursday's Daily Delivery podcast — when the eye test is paired with data.
Using a metric from Sports Info Solutions and adjusting for other factors, ESPN measured how much impact all 32 NFL teams received from rookies in 2023. The news was bad for the Vikings in every way possible.
Minnesota ranked No. 25 out of 32 teams. While Addison and Pace were excellent additions, the Vikings had neither depth nor overwhelming quality otherwise. Third-round corner Mekhi Blackmon showed some promise, but overall the Vikings paid dearly for having just one pick (Addison) in the top 100.
Looking at the other three teams in the division, it's not hard to see — at least in part — why they are ascending. The Packers (No. 3), Lions (No. 4) and Bears (No. 5) all had elite rookie production. All had at least four picks in the Top 100; Detroit had six. Contributions from key rookies are a big reason Detroit and Green Bay are still alive in the playoffs and why the Bears improved greatly in the second half of the season.
Then again, one draft class can't completely sink a team. So let's go back to the same evaluation ESPN did after the 2022 season.
That year the Vikings had four picks in the Top 66 ... and still fared poorly. Their ranking was No. 25 out of 32 teams in terms of impact from rookies, same as this year. Even worse: Those four picks didn't fare much better in 2023 as second-year players. Lewis Cine, Andrew Booth Jr. and Brian Asamoah are buried on depth charts. Ed Ingram is a middling starter (at best) at guard.
Meanwhile, the Bears and Lions were both in the Top 10 in 2022 and Green Bay was No. 14.
All of this underscores two things: The need for some of those picks from the last two years to find their form quickly, and the even more urgent need for Adofo-Mensah to somehow have a better draft in 2023.
They only have two Top 100 picks at the moment, No. 11 and No. 42. Detroit has four while Green Bay has five. The Bears have two picks in the top 10, including No. 1 overall.
A look at the Vikings' roster shows numerous holes and deficits in talent, many caused by underperformance from those aforementioned last two classes.
It feels like 20 pounds of problems crammed into a five-pound bag.
Good luck with that.
Here are four more things to know today:
*This piece on 16 key Vikings veterans is a good reminder, too, of a lot of key decisions facing the team this offseason.
*Star Tribune Gophers writer Randy Johnson was my guest on Thursday's podcast. We talked plenty about the men's hockey team and also got into recent additions to the football coaching staff.
*A big difference between this year's Wolves and last year's Wolves, so far, is their ability to take games against inferior opponents seriously. Another difference: The talent and ability to win against bad teams, as they did Wednesday at Detroit, even when their attention wanders.
*Chip Scoggins will be my guest on Friday's show. Come prepared if you listen: Read his outstanding profile first.
