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Watching the Tropics
NOAA's National Hurricane Center starting issuing updates on Tropical Depression #2 for a disturbance off the East Coast late Monday morning. The good news is that this system should remain a fish storm as it quickly moves northeast on Tuesday.
Tracking The Tropics
The update from NOAA's NHC, shows this latest system quickly moving northeast away from the East Coast through midweek. It is also forecast to become the 2nd Tropical Storm of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which will be named Bill.
Watching the Tropics
According to NOAA's NHC, the Atlantic Basin is heating up! As of Monday afternoon, we had Tropical Depression #2 east of the East Coast. There is also another wave of energy in the Gulf of Mexico lifting north toward the Gulf Coast States that has a high probability of formation over the next 5 days. If that's not enough, there is another wave of energy west of Africa that NOAA's NHC is deeming a low probability of formation over the next 5 days.
Watching the Tropics
The system in the Gulf of Mexico is expected to lift north toward the Gulf Coast States later this week and weekend ahead with gusty winds and areas of heavy rainfall. Here's the weather outlook from late week into the weekend.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
The extended precipitation outlook through the weekend shows areas of heavy rainfall across parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley and into the Gulf Coast States, where several inches of rain and flooding can't be ruled out.
Western MegaDrought
According to the US Drought Monitor, nearly 97% of the Western US is considered to be abnormally dry with 88% in a Moderate Drought, 75% in a Severe Drought, 55% in an Extreme Drought and 27% in an Exceptional Drought. 1 year ago, no areas were in an Exceptional Drought and only 2% was considered to be in an Extreme Drought
"7 Shocking Satellite Images Reveal the West's Megadrought"
"The 2021 megadrought is having major impacts on the ground. But to truly grasp the scope, you need to see it from space. The megadrought hitting the western United States has yielded no shortage of horror stories to start the dry season. Record heat last week has seared in drought, turning the region from an already well-done steak into a charred crisp. Almond growers are ripping up orchards, and 17 million endangered salmon are being shipped to the sea because rivers are too hot to navigate. Horror stories abound. But the toll of the megadrought is perhaps most visible in the state of reservoirs across the West, from California to Utah. Lake Mead hit a record low, touching a level not seen since the Hoover Dam was constructed. The images of boat docks sitting on now-dry land are visceral, but so too are the state of the West's reservoirs from space. The European Space Agency's Sentinel-2 satellite has captured astounding images of the West's reservoirs. Earther has taken snapshots from 2020 and 2021 of a number of reservoirs in California as well as Lake Mead and Lake Powell, the two largest manmade reservoirs in the West, which millions depend on. These shocking images show how quickly water supplies have deteriorated, and the risks facing the region as the dry season ramps up."
California Reservoir Levels
According to CA.gov most of the reservoirs located in California are running well below the historical average. Interestingly, Folsom Lake is sitting at 34%, which is the lowest out of any of the reservoirs located in the state and it continues to drop.
Minnesota Drought Update
"Little rainfall fell this week, except in some parts of far northern Minnesota where over an inch of rainfall was reported. Gunflint Lake (Cook County) and Orr (St Louis County) reported over 2 inches of rain. The heat this week coupled with the absence of rainfall in most places has accelerated produced drought concerns over many areas of the state. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor portions of 6 Minnesota counties are in severe drought, and 55 counties are designated in moderate drought, with the rest of the state drier than normal, but not yet in drought. Some areas of southern and western Minnesota have received less than 50 percent of normal precipitation for the year so far. Further the outlook models show continued trend for hot and dry through most of the rest of the month. Many lawns are already showing signs of browning, and some tress are under stress as well."
See more from Mark Seeley's Minnesota Weather Talk HERE:
Precipitation Percent of Average So Far This June
"Agriculture impacts: We are early in both the growing season and this drought, so agricultural impacts have been minimal to this point. The main impact messaged by the USDA is that the early June warmth promoted a rapid pace in crop development, though has begun to stress pastures. In both Minnesota and Wisconsin, about 75% of major crops were reported as being in good or excellent condition, with slightly lower percentages for the condition of pastures/rangeland as of June 7th. Hydrologic impacts: Being early on in this dry spell, we have yet to see significant hydrologic impacts. Fire hazards: In Minnesota, all but the counties that border Wisconsin have a fire danger rating from the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources as high or very high, with burn restrictions in place from St. Cloud on north in the state. In Wisconsin, the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources has all of western Wisconsin within a moderate fire danger with only daytime burning restrictions."
See more from the National Weather Service Drought Information Statements HERE:
Precipitation Month to Date
Here's how much precipitation we've had so far this month and despite a few heavy pockets of rain across the Dakotas, northern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin, much of central and southern Minnesota have not had much in terms of any appreciative rain. Interestingly, Rochester, MN & Mason City, IA have not seen a drop of rain yet this month!
Precipitation Departure From Average So Far This June
Here's the precipitation departure from average so far this month. Note that many locations from the central and northern part of the state down to the MN/IA border are at least -1.00" below average with Rochester, MN and Mason City, IA nearly -2.50" below average. Interestingly, this is the driest start to any June on record for Rochester, which again has not yet seen any rain yet this month.
Precipitation Departure From Average Since Jan. 1st
Many areas across the region are dealing with deficits with many areas several inches below average since the beginning of the year. The biggest deficits are located south and east of the Twin Cities across parts of Iowa and southern Wisconsin. With that being said, Madison, WI is sitting at its 5th driest start to any year on record, while Mason City, IA is sitting at its 6th driest start to any year on record.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
Here's the extended precipitation outlook from NOAA's WPC, which shows pockets of decent rainfall potential across parts of southern Minnesota and into central Wisconsin. Unfortunately, this rain chance won't arrive late week. Until then, it will remain hot and dry.
Hot & Dry June So Far in the Twin Cities
Through the first 13 days of June, the Twin Cities is running nearly +14.0F above average, which is the warmest start to any June on record. We've also only had 0.40" of rain, which is the 26th driest start to any June on record.
Warmest Start to June on Record
Here's the top 15 warmest June 1st - 11th stretches on record. Note that this year is the warmest June 1st to 11th on record with an average temperature of 82F !! So far, we've surpassed the other warmest start to any June on record, which was back in 1933 during the Dust Bowl years.
Low Humidity Continues
Here's a look at dewpoint values over the next several days, which shows comfortable dewpoint readings generally in the 50s. There could be a spike in humidity on Thursday as our next best chance of showers and storms arrives.
Tuesday Weather Outlook
The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Tuesday shows more warm and dry weather in place with high temps warming into the mid 80s by the afternoon.
Minneapolis Meteograms
The meteograms for Minneapolis on Tuesday shows temps warming into the 80s by late morning. High temps will warm into the mid/upper 80s in the afternoon, which will once again be nearly +5F to +10F above average. Winds will be out of the NNE through the day and could gust up close to 20mph in the afternoon.
Regional Weather Outlook for Tuesday
The weather outlook across the region on Tuesday looks rather quiet once again with high temperature readings warming into the 80s and 90s across much of the region, which will be nearly +5F to +10F above average.
Extended Weather Outlook for Minneapolis
The extended weather outlook for Minneapolis shows temps still warming into the 80s through the rest of the week. This will be nearly +5F to +10F above average. Keep in mind that the Twin Cities is at its warmest start to any June on record with the average temperature sitting nearly +14.0F above average. We stay dry until late Wednesday and Thursday when showers and storms arrive. Temps behind the front could be quite a bit cooler than they've been in some time. There may also be scattered showers and storms late weekend into early next week. Stay tuned.
Weather Outlook From AM Monday to AM Saturday
The weather outlook from AM Monday to AM Saturday shows mostly dry weather in place again through Wednesday, but showers and storms arrive late Wednesday into Thursday with a chance of a few heavier pockets of rain here and there.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows warmer than average temps across much of the western half of the nation. However, temps in the Central US will be running cooler than average, including the Upper Midwest for the time since around Memorial Day in late May.
Western Megadrought. Warm & Dry Continues Today
By Todd Nelson, filling in for Douglas.
According to the U.S. Drought Monitor nearly 90 percent of the Western US is under some type of drought. 27 percent of which are under an Exceptional Drought!
Reservoir levels are falling fast and even faster than predicted, including Lake Mead, which was developed in the1930s by the creation of the Hoover Dam. It is the vital water source that provides water to nearly 25 million people in the Desert Southwest. Last week, it reached an all-time record low, surpassing that of 2016. A number of states will likely be forced to reduce water supplies as the hot and dry weather conditions persist. It's a bad situation getting worse every day. Some are calling it a 'Megadrought'.
Closer to home, the hottest start to any June on record continues over the next few days with temps running well above average. Many folks in southern Minnesota have not seen a drop of rain since late May.
I don't know about you, but my lawn resembles a psychedelic shade of green and brown. I've given up on watering. We all need a good soaking soon. Keep praying!
Extended Forecast
TUESDAY: Another warm & sunny day. Winds: ENE 5-10. High: 84.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly Clear and quiet. Winds: ENE 5-10. Low: 61.
WEDNESDAY: Breezy & More Humid. Late Day Storm. Winds: SSE 10-20. High: 88.
THURSDAY: Unsettled. A few strong PM storms? Winds: SSW 5-15. Wake-up: 70. High: 91.
FRIDAY: Stiff NW breeze. Stray PM shower. Winds: WNW 15-25. Wake-up: 65. High: 81.
SATURDAY: Few clouds. Comfortable and dry. Winds: NW 5-10. Wake-up: 58. High: 80.
SUNDAY: Increasing T-Shower chance late. Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up: 60. High: 82.
MONDAY: Lingering rain & rumble potential. Winds: NNW 10-15. Wake-up: 60. High: 82.
This Day in Weather History
June 15th
1989: Scattered frost develops across Minnesota, with the coldest reading of 29 at Isabella.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
June 15th
Average High: 79F (Record: 95F set in 2018)
Average Low: 59F (Record: 41F set in 1989)
Record Rainfall: 2.80" set in 1874
Record Snowfall: 0.00"
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
June 14th
Sunrise: 5:25am
Sunset: 9:01pm
Hours of Daylight: ~15 hours & 36 minutes
Daylight GAINED since yesterday: ~ 26 seconds
Daylight GAINED since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 6 hours & 50 minute
Moon Phase for June 15th at Midnight
2.9 Before First Quarter Moon
What's in the Night Sky?
"The young moon returns In June 2021, new moon happens on June 10 at 10:21 UTC. And so – by about June 11 – the young moon, a waxing crescent, returns to the evening sky. If you watch that evening, and in the evenings after that, you can also notice two planets, Venus and Mars. You can spot Regulus, Heart of the Lion in the constellation Leo, now about to descend into the sun's glare for another season. And you might also glimpse the stars Castor and Pollux in the constellation Gemini the Twins. They in such bright twilight, though, that they'll be tougher to see. Evening of June 11, 2021 For us in North America, the moon turned new during the early morning hours of June 10. That means – for us in North America – the moon will be well over one day (24 hours) old at sunset June 11, staying out for over one hour after sunset. On June 11, the sleek and slender young moon will be pairing up with the dazzling planet Venus on the sky's dome. That's not to say that moon watchers in the world's Eastern Hemisphere won't see the young moon after sunset June 11. But the younger and thinner moon may present more of a challenge, as an even paler crescent sets all the sooner after sunset."
National High Temps Tuesday
The weather outlook on Tuesday shows well above average temps continuing across much of the central and western US. In fact, many locations will be nearly +10F to +30F above average with even hotter temps settling in across the Western US with records possible through much of next week.
National Weather Outlook
The national weather outlook through PM Wednesday shows lingering showers and storms across parts of the Northeast on Tuesday. Our next system will eventually slide into the Central US with shower and storm potential mid to late week.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center there is a chance of locally heavy rainfall across parts of the Gulf Coast and Mid-Atlantic Region as the next tropical system slides in. There will be a few pockets of heavier rainfall in the Central US, including far southern MN and into Wisconsin.
Climate Stories
"Forecasters don't need a review board to improve tornado warnings"
"While more progress can be made, the Weather Service is on the right track in preparing the public for tornadoes. On May 21, Capital Weather Gang published the perspective by Mike Smith titled "A decade after deadly Joplin tornado, warnings haven't improved. Here's how to fix them." In the piece, Smith concludes that recent trends in tornado-warning lead time from the National Weather Service call for an "independent review of the National Weather Service's tornado warning procedures and training." Smith cited recent reductions in the lead times for twisters and suggested that the frequency at which warnings are correctly issued for them — known as the probability of detection — was a problem. He suggests that one way to improve is to create a review board, modeled after the National Transportation Safety Board, that would independently collect information and evaluate warning performance. I would agree with this assessment from Smith if this was indeed a problem. Weather Service tornado warning statistics are a multifaceted reflection of nuanced issues. Most importantly, as I will describe, focusing on warning lead-time and/or accuracy misses the most pressing issues related to societal impacts from tornadoes."
See more from Washington Post HERE:
"Ice Shelf Breakup Causes Antarctic Glacier to Melt Faster; Sea Levels at Risk"
"The recent breakup of an Antarctic ice shelf is speeding up the ocean-bound descent of a glacier holding back at least a meter of sea level rise, according to new research. The findings may have implications for predicting when collapsing glaciers will raise sea levels and flood coastal cities. Pine Island, the focus of the study, is already the fastest-melting glacier in Antarctica. It is located at the base of a peninsula jutting out of West Antarctica and helps support an entire ice sheet in that region. "(Pine Island Glacier) has been on the radar of glaciologists for a long time because it drains a significant portion of the West Antarctic ice sheet, and it has been speeding up," said Michele Koppes, a University of British Columbia glaciologist who was not involved in the study. The speed of ice leaving Pine Island Glacier was relatively stable until 2017, when over the following three years, massive icebergs began breaking off the outer ice shelf that extends from the glacier past land and onto the ocean. Experts noticed that the glacial ice loss was accelerating. The speed at which the edge of the glacier was retreating and its ice was floating away was increasing. As the glacier continues to lose more ice, scientists ponder what will happen next."
"It's hurricane season, and you can help rebuild from past storms and train for the next"
"With the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season under way, there is plenty of rebuilding still to do in North Carolina from past hurricanes and volunteers will be needed for major storms that might hit this year. Researchers predict an active hurricane season in the Atlantic this year, with up to 18 named storms by the time the season ends on Nov. 30. Of those, two or three could become major hurricanes — Category 3 or higher — according to forecasters at N.C. State University. The last hurricane to hit North Carolina was Isaias on Aug. 3, 2020. It made landfall at Ocean Isle Beach with winds near 86 mph and was blamed for four deaths in North Carolina, including two in Bertie County where a tornado formed as a result of the downgraded storm and struck a mobile home community."
See more from Herald Sun HERE:
"'Dire situation': Silicon Valley cracks down on water use as California drought worsens"
"Santa Clara county issues restrictions in an already historic crisis, amid fears trouble could deepen over summer. Santa Clara county, the home of Silicon Valley, issued mandatory water restrictions this week during a severe drought that has already reached historic levels. The move was championed by analysts and researchers who have pushed for more conservation efforts across California amid concerns that the state will fall deeper into a drought disaster through the hot, dry summer and autumn. "We are indeed in a dire situation," said Rick Callender, the CEO of the water district serving Santa Clara county, during a public hearing Wednesday. "When you see a storm about to hit your community, the responsibility of government is not to wait until the storm hits to call for emergency action. The responsibility of government, as we all know, is to act before the storm can actually cause the devastation."
See more from The Guardian HERE:
"The 'megadrought' just set a concerning record for Lake Mead"
The largest reservoir in the U.S. reached an all-time low. As a massive "megadrought" grips the Western U.S., water levels in Lake Mead reached a historic all-time low as of Wednesday night, according to CBS News. The water levels have fallen steadily as inflow from the Colorado River and its tributaries have dried up, reported USA Today. According to The Weather Channel, 89% of the Western U.S. is experiencing drought conditions. More than half — about 55% — of the West is experiencing the highest levels of "extreme" and "exceptional" drought, reported The Weather Channel. The low water levels in Lake Mead are likely to lead to historic water cuts for multiple southwestern states, reported Reuters. What is Lake Mead? Why is it important? Formed in 1937 by the construction of the Hoover Dam, Lake Mead is the largest reservoir in the U.S. The reservoir supplies water to 25 million people in Los Angeles, San Diego, Tucson and Las Vegas, per Reuters. Arizona and Nevada rely on Lake Mead for water, especially for agricultural production, said USA Today.
See more from Desert.com HERE:
"California's Drought Is So Bad They're Driving Salmon to the Ocean in Trucks"
"The drought in California is so bad that the state is loading almost 17 million hatchery salmon into trucks for a ride to the coast in a massive effort to help the species. Typically, Chinook salmon spawn in rivers and then migrate to the ocean as juveniles, eventually swimming back up rivers to lay their eggs. But this year, the West is experiencing on of the worst droughts in history, with California Governor Gavin Newsom declaring it an emergency in April. The once-cool and deep riverways salmon have historically traveled are now in some places hot, cracked stretches of dirt. And to make sure that salmon get to the ocean, the California Department of Fish and Wildlife will use 146 trucks to carry the fish up to 100 miles from their hatcheries to the San Francisco Bay and other water areas, according to a release by the agency. They are being let loose at different times of day to avoid a feeding frenzy by lurking seabirds. "Trucking young salmon to downstream release sites has proven to be one of the best ways to increase survival to the ocean during dry conditions," Jason Julienne, a salmon hatchery supervisor, said in a statement."
