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2023: 3rd Warmest Year on Record at MSP
It certainly was warm year, but did you realize that MSP just had its 3rd warmest year on record? The average temperature at MSP for all of 2023 was only 0.9F behind the 2 warmest years on record, which was 2012 and 1931.
"Top Five Weather Events for 2023 in Minnesota"
"Here are the results of voting for the top five weather events of 2023 from the Minnesota State Climatology Office. Votes were cast from various weather enthusiasts including the National Weather Service, the University of Minnesota, State agencies and Facebook followers. #5 "Big Mess" Snowstorm Clobbers Minnesota: January 2-5, 2023 The New Year greeted Minnesota with a large, messy winter storm, as a concoction of heavy snow, freezing rain, sleet, rain, and thunderstorms pounded parts of the state. The storm produced widespread accumulations of over one foot, with 15.1 inches for a storm total in the Twin Cities, making this the 14th-largest snowstorm on record since 1884."
See more from the MN State Climatology Office HERE:
December: Warmest & 10th Least Snowy on Record
Believe it or not, the Twin Cities just finished its warmest and 10th least snowy December on record. Temps were nearly +12F above average and snowfall was nearly -9.0" below average.
A Historically Warm, Wet, and Snowless December in Minnesota
"No below-normal temperatures all month in St. Cloud and the Twin Cities December 2023 featured an extraordinary combination of warmth, wetness, and snowlessness, breaking or challenging records in all three categories. In many regards, December was more like November in Minnesota, with bare ground dominating the landscape across the state for much or all of the month, and temperatures remaining mild virtually every day, with a few bouts of very to extremely warm weather. A rare holiday heat wave arrived with precipitation event that produced rain almost exclusively, and propelled the month to the top of the precipitation charts as well. Strong El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean have kept frigid winter air masses locked up in central and northern Canada, 1,000 to 2,000 miles to our north. Most days have been much warmer than average, and passing cold fronts have struggled to bring in anything other than seasonally-normal air."
See more from the MN State Climatology Office HERE:
Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI)
"Winter seasons have significant societal impacts across all sectors ranging from direct human health and mortality to commerce, transportation, and education. The question "How severe was this winter?" does not have a simple answer. At the very least, the severity of a winter is related to the intensity and persistence of cold weather, the amount of snow, and the amount and persistence of snow on the ground. The Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI) was developed to objectively quantify and describe the relative severity of the winter season."
It's probably no surprise, but most locations around the Midwest and Great Lakes have had a "Mild" winter so far. Again, we're still waiting for the other boot to drop, but being in an El Nino setup, a winter like last year is not really in the cards. The Midwest will likely see an overall warmer and less snowy winter.
"Mild" Winter So Far in for the Twin Cities
Here's a look at the Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI) for Minneapolis, MN so far this winter season. With a lack of cold temps and snow, it may be no surprise that we are currently sitting under a "Mild" winter rating so far.
Seasonal Snowfall So Far
The Twin Cities has only seen ~5" of snow this season, which is nearly -14.0" below normal snowfall, which is the top 15 least snowy starts to any season on record. With only ~8" of snow in Duluth, they are more than 2 feet below normal snowfall and good enough for the top 10 least snowy starts to any season on record. Marquette, MI is nearly 52" below normal snowfall and currently sitting at the 4th least snowy start to any season on record.
Seasonal Snowfall Departure From Average
Looking around the region, no climate site has a surplus. The biggest deficits are around the Great Lakes, where we typically get lake effect snow, but with a lack of Arctic air, we haven't seen much in the way of heavy snow yet this season.
Twin Cities Average Snowfall
Depending on what 30-year average you look at, December is typically the 1st or 2nd snowiest month out of the year in the Twin Cities. If you look at the last 30 years 1993-2022, December averages 12.7" of snow and is the snowiest month of the year, followed by January with nearly 11" of snow.
Quiet Early 2024. More Active By The Weekend?
The weather outlook through the first week of January looks pretty quiet across much of the Midwest. However, things could get a little more interesting as we approach the weekend and next week. Some of the longer-range models are suggesting the potential of more active weather across the Midwest and Central US. Stay tuned...
Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Tuesday
The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Tuesday, January 2nd will quiet with lingering clouds. Temps will warm to around the freezing mark with only a few peeks of sunshine.
Meteograms For Minneapolis
Temperatures in the Twin Cities will start mid/upper 20s in the morning and will warm into the lower 30s by the afternoon. Much of the day will be dry with lingering clouds across the region. Northwesterly winds will be a bit breezy around 15mph to 20mph through the day.
Weather Outlook For Tuesday
The weather outlook for Tuesday will warm into the upper 20s and lower 30s across much of the state, which will still be nearly 10F to 15F above average. Skies will be dry, but mostly cloudy once again.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
The 5 day temperature outlook for Minneapolis will still be warmer than average by nearly 5F to 10F through the first few days of 2024.
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended weather outlook for Minneapolis over the next 7 days will warm into the 20s and 30s through the upcoming weekend, which will still be nearly 5F to 10F above average for early January. The extended weather outlook through the week ahead keeps us still very quiet around the region, but as we approach the weekend and the following week, things could get a little more active. Stay tuned...
Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
Temps in the Twin Cities through the first week and a half of January look to remain above average by nearly 5F to 10F. However, we are getting indications of cooldown as we approach mid-month and beyond. Note that we have had very little in the way of cold air this season, so it may feel quite a bit colder during the 2nd half of the month. Stay tuned...
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook, we're finally starting to see some changes. Note that colder than average temperatures may start to develop across the western half of the country, including the Midwest!
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
The 8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook shows more active weather across the Southern two-thirds of the nation and especially in the Southeastern and Southwestern US.
Winter Struggling With El Nino Signal
By Paul Douglas
I've been staring at weather and climate models for far too long. Permit me to go out on a shaky limb: Old Man Winter will continue to pull his punch. A few spasms of cold weather? Count on it, but fewer Siberian slaps than usual; maybe only a couple of subzero nights. 30s and a few 40s in late January and February. Less snow than average, maybe a lot less.
The next 3 weeks are (historically) the coldest of the year and we will see 20s by late next week with a few single digit lows. But a rerun of the "Polar Vortex"? I don't see it. At least not yet.
Models print out 1-2" snow Friday into Sunday, but next week's big snowstorm will probably track south of Minnesota. We'll get the cold - and ice will (finally) form on area lakes, but that ice may still be sketchy and unreliable for the U.S. Pond Hockey Championships on Nokomis.
Why? Warmest December on record, with 26 days above 32F. 3rd warmest year on record for MSP.
Lake Minnetonka should have a record late ice-in (old record: January 2, 2002).
Extended Forecast
TUESDAY: Peeks of sunshine. Winds: NW 10-15. High 34.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Winds: WNW 10.. High 25.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy, a cool breeze. Winds: NW 10-20. High 30.
THURSDAY: A sunnier day on tap. Winds: S 5-10. Wake-up: 18. High 29.
FRIDAY: A little light snow, coating late? Winds: SE 5-10. Wake-up: 22. High 32.
SATURDAY: PM flakes, another coating - 1". Winds: S 8-13. Wake-up: 28. High 34.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy, probably dry. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 23. High: 31.
MONDAY: Gray, but snow may stay south of MN. Winds: NE 10-20. Wake-up: 21. High: 28.
This Day in Weather History
January 2nd
1941: Grand Portage gets over 4.5 inches of precipitation in 24 hours. That's roughly how much normally falls there during the 'winter' months from November to February.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
January 2nd
Average High: 24F (Record: 45F set in 1897 & 1998)
Average Low: 11F (Record: -36F set in 1885)
Record Rainfall: 0.46" set in 1999
Record Snowfall: 6.1" set in 1999
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
January 2nd
Sunrise: 7:50am
Sunset: 4:43pm
Hours of Daylight: ~8 hours & 52 minutes
Daylight GAINED since yesterday: 52 Seconds
Daylight GAINED since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 6 minutes
Moon Phase for January 2nd at Midnight
0.9 Days Before Last Quarter
National High Temps on Tuesday
The weather outlook on Tuesday looks fairly mild across much of the nation for the second day of the new year except for the Southern US, where temps will be a little cooler. Much of the nation will be quiet as well.
National Weather Outlook For Tuesday
The National Weather Outlook on Tuesday will be mostly quiet across the nation except for a few spots. There could be some heavier rain in the Western US and across the Southern US. Light snow will be possible around the Great Lakes Region.
National Weather Outlook
The National Weather outlook through Wednesday show lingering rain/snow pushing through the Eastern US through the New Year. Some rain and thunder will develop across parts of the Southern US early this week with a bigger storm system moving into the Western US by midweek.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
The extended precipitation outlook shows heavier precipitation developing across the Southern and Eastern US through the first week of 2024. We'll also see some heavier precipitation develop across the West Coast with several inches of rain possible across northern California.
Extended Snowfall Outlook
According to the ECMWF weather model, We could be entering a more active weather pattern across the nation after the first few days of the month. Areas of snow (heavy at times) could develop across parts of the Western Central and Northeastern US. Stay tuned as we approach next weekend and the week after.
Climate Stories
"The year's most extreme weather shows what a warming planet is capable of, and what's to come"
"In the hottest year on record, the fingerprints of a changing climate in a warming world were all over dozens of extreme weather events. There wouldn't be weather without heat; heat is energy, and weather is an expression of that energy, of an atmosphere trying to balance itself. But too much heat in the system raises the limits of what is possible in weather and pushes it toward the extremes. So it's maybe no surprise then that this year's record heat was a "through line" in many of 2023's most brutal weather events, Kristina Dahl, climate scientist with the Union of Concerned Scientists, told CNN. "Climate change influences our weather on Earth every day," Dahl said. "In my mind, the burden of proof now is to show that climate change hasn't influenced an event, because it's just so clearly influencing everything around us." The extreme weather events of this year are not unique – they're a sign of what's to come."
"Four good news climate stories from 2023"
"We don't want to give you the wrong idea: things are bad. Antarctic ice sheets are melting, the fossil fuel lobby was everywhere at the COP talks, and even solutions like electric cars have their problems. And that just covers the past few weeks of this newsletter. But to end 2023 we'd like to focus on a few of the more optimistic stories we have run over the past year. 1. We have skyscraper-sized wind turbines now Back in January, we asked Simon Hogg, executive director of Durham Energy Institute, about huge new wind turbines being built in the North Sea. These turbines, he wrote, "stand more than a quarter of a kilometre high from the surface of the sea to the highest point of the blade tip". "If you placed one in London, it would be the third-tallest structure in the city, taller than One Canada Square in Canary Wharf and just 50 metres shorter than the Shard. Each of its three blades would be longer than Big Ben's clock tower is tall." The sheer size has some benefits: "A bigger blade extracts energy from the wind over a greater area as it rotates, which generates more electricity." Each rotation can power an average home for two days."
See more from The Conversation HERE
"The Most Important Climate Stories of 2023 Aren't All Bad News"
"In 2023 climate news was a mixed bag: we saw unrelenting heat but also glimmers of hope of progress toward reducing greenhouse gas emissions. To say the year in climate has been a mixed bag is an understatement. There have been glimmers of hope alongside stark reminders of the peril we all face if we don't quickly slash greenhouse gas emissions. Early in the year the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released the final installment of its Sixth Assessment Report, which was, as United Nations secretary-general António Guterres put it, "a how-to guide to defuse the climate time-bomb." As 2023 came to a close, there was some encouraging, if modest, movement forward on international and U.S. climate action. But this will also be the hottest year on record, driving home how inadequate that action has been to date."
See more from Scientific American HERE:
