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Frost & Freeze Concerns
The National Weather service has issued Frost & Freeze watches & warnings across the Dakotas and parts of western Minnesota in advance of some very chilly weather that will settle in over the next couple nights. The coldest temps will arrive AM Saturday with readings falling into the 20s for some, which would be considered a hard freeze.
Morning Lows Friday & Saturday
Morning lows will dip into the 20s and 30s over the next couple of days with the coldest morning being Saturday with a few more locations dropping into the 20s. Note that North Platte, NE could drop to 25F on Saturday! These will be some of the coldest readings of the season so far. Get ready for the chill.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
Here's the extended precipitation outlook through next week, which shows limited rainfall across the state. The best chance of rain will be on Friday with some spots picking up a couple of tenths of an inch of rain.
Simulated Radar
Here's the simulated radar from AM Thursday to PM Friday, which show scattered showers possible the region through the end of the week. Some of the heaviest rains will be found across the northern half of the state.
90 Day Precipitation Anomaly
Thanks to some recent heavy rains parts of the state are now in a surplus over the last 90 days. Some of the biggest surpluses (which aren't many) are showing up in blue in pockets along and north of the Twin Cities and also just east of the metro in western Wisconsin.
Drought Update
Recent heavy rains have helped the drought situation quite a bit in spots across the state. With that being said, we're still in a drought across much of the state with nearly 8% under an extreme drought.
Fall Color Update
Here's a picture from Savanna Portage State Park and the Park Staff. Fall colors look well underway there and will continue over the coming days.
Fall Color Update
According to the MN DNR, the fall color season is well underway. Parts of northern Minnesota are already at and past peak color. Fall colors will continue to rapidly change, so take a moment and enjoy the season while you can. Note that most leaves will vacate the premises in a few weeks and won't return until sometime in mid/late May...
See more from the MN DNR HERE:
Wisconsin Fall Color Update
Here's a look at the fall color report in Wisconsin. Fall colors are peaking in some areas and peak isn't far away in others.
See more from Travel Wisconsin HERE:
Typical Peak Fall Color
According to the MN DNR, typical peak color arrives across the international border mid to late September with peak color arriving near the Twin Cities late September to mid October. It won't be long now and you'll be able to find your favorite fall color in a backyard near you.
Tropical Storm Philippe
Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for Bermuda in advance of Tropical Storm Philippe as it drifts west of the island on Friday. Gust winds, heavy surf and waves of rain will be possible there before conditions improve over the weekend.
Tracking Philippe
According to NOAA's NHC, Philippe will continue to drift north over the next several days and will make a close encounter with Bermuda on Friday as a Tropical Storm with gusty winds, heavy surf and waves of rain. Philippe could make landfall in nearly the same area the Lee did on September 16th.
Past Peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th, but did you know that the typical peak is September 10th? This is when the Atlantic Basin has had the most hurricanes and named storms since records began. This is also when weather conditions are at optimal levels for these types of storms.
Weather Outlook For Friday
The weather outlook on Friday will be very chilly regionally with temps struggling to get into the lower 50s, which will be well below average for this time of the year. There will also be areas of rain and gusty winds, which will make it feel even colder. Hello late October weather!
Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Friday
The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Friday, October 6th will significantly cooler than it has been with highs only warming into the lower 50s. Areas of rain will be possible with gust winds which will make it feel very much like a late October or early November day.
Meteograms For Minneapolis
Temps in Minneapolis will start in 40s in the morning and will only warm to near 50f in the afternoon under mostly cloudy skies. Breezy westerly winds will make it feel even cooler and more like fall! Wind gusts through the day could approach 25mph to 30mph at times.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
The 5 day temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows much cooler temperatures as we head through the next several days. Highs will only warm into the 50s, which will be well below normal for this time of the year.
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
The 7 day extended outlook shows temps only warming into the 50s through early next week, which will be well below average for this time of the year. It's starting to feel a lot like Autumn, everywhere you go...
A Slight Temperature Bump Next Week
According to NOAA's National Blend of Models, it'll be quite a bit cooler than average over the next several days with a gradual warming trend as we approach the middle part of next week.
Weather Outlook
The Midwest will endure a pretty significant cool down from last weekend with highs dropping nearly +40F. The high on Sunday was 92F and the high on Friday and Saturday could be in the lower 50s. Meanwhile, the rain that impacted us Tuesday & Wednesday will help to funnel Tropical Storm Philippe into the Northeast much like Lee did in mid September. Gusty winds and heavy rainfall could be possible by the weekend in the Northeast.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows Warmer than average temperatures across the western half of the nation as we approach mid month. Readings in the Midwest will likely be above average through that time period. Below average temps will develop in the southeastern US.
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, more active weather will develop across the Pacific Northwest and the eastern US, but much of the Central US will be drier than average.
Frost Is Coming Later In The Twin Cities
By Paul Douglas
When I arrived in Minnesota (1983) the average first frost in the immediate Twin Cities area was October 2. Now the average (mean) date of first frost at MSP is October 11, according to the Midwestern Regional Climate Center. The growing season is longer, and lake ice season has shrunk by 2 weeks or more. It's not your grandfather's weather anymore.
No more hot fronts to track, but eye-water winds pushing chilly air southward out of Canada. A storm stalling over Quebec province will keep pumping cool, unstable air south of the border into most of next week.
Today may wind up being the most uncomfortable day in sight with winds gusting over 30 mph, occasional spits of rain and temperatures in the 40s. From mid-July to November in 3 days.
Much of western Minnesota will wake up to frost Sunday morning, but a lingering breeze and clouds may keep the Twin Cities metro frost-free for now. I see highs in the 50s into next week.
But we probably haven't seen the last 70-degree warm front of 2023 yet.
Extended Forecast
FRIDAY: Windblown rain, raw. Winds: NW 15-35. High 49.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy & breezy. Slight chance of showers. Winds: NW 15-30. Low: 40.
SATURDAY: Mix of clouds and sun, brisk. Winds: NW 10-20. High 54.
SUNDAY: Scrappy clouds, cool breeze. Winds: NE 8-13. Wake-up: 44. High: 57.
MONDAY: More clouds than sunshine. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 42. High: 54.
TUESDAY: Peeks of sun, feels like October. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 39. High: 55.
WEDNESDAY: Another cloud-cluttered sky. Winds: NE 5-10. Wake-up: 44. High 56.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny, risk of light jackets. Winds: NE 10-20. Wake-up: 45. High 58.
This Day in Weather History
October 6th
1997: Hail, wind, and an F0 tornado are reported in the early morning hours in several counties in west central Minnesota. Near Canby in Yellow Medicine County, hail combined with wind gusts nearing 60 mph damage the roof of a bus garage, elementary school windows and a school vehicle. Renville, McLeod, Carver, Scott, and Dakota counties also receive hail and strong winds. Widespread pea to marble size hail accumulates to three inches deep in several areas, and crops are severely damaged over a large part of Renville county. Many power lines and trees are blown down. Southeast of Bird Island, a barn collapses and kills over 100 pigs. Near Brownton in McLeod County, hail accumulates to a depth of 3 inches with one foot drifts. A brief tornado touches down near Stewart in McLeod County, damaging a few trees.
1987: Snow falls over the Arrowhead region.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
October 6th
Average High: 64F (Record: 87F set in 2007)
Average Low: 45F (Record: 25F set in 1873)
Record Rainfall: 1.69" set in 1941
Record Snowfall: Trace set in 1952 & 2005
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
October 6th
Sunrise: 7:17am
Sunset: 6:44pm
Hours of Daylight: ~11 hours & 27 minutes
Daylight LOST since yesterday: 3 Minutes & 5 Seconds
Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 21st): ~ 4 Hour & 10 Minutes
Moon Phase for October 6th at Midnight
0.7 Days After Last Quarter Moon
National High Temps on Friday
Temperatures on Friday will be warmer than average across the East Coast, where temps will be nearly +5F to +10F above average. Cooler than average temps will be found through the Midwest.
National Weather Outlook For Friday
The weather outlook on Friday looks unsettled along a cold front through the eastern US with areas of heavy rain possible.
National Weather Outlook
The weather outlook through Saturday shows unsettled weather from the Great Lakes to the Northeastern US with areas of heavy rain and gusty winds. This combination storms will develop into areas of heavy snow north of the Great Lakes in Canada.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
The extended precipitation outlook shows areas of heavy rainfall across the Central US. There will also be areas of heavy rain across the Northeast as Phililppe moves in.
Climate Stories
"Study identifies jet-stream pattern that locks in extreme winter cold, wet spells"
Winter is coming—eventually. And while the Earth is warming, a new study suggests that the atmosphere is being pushed around in ways that cause long bouts of extreme winter cold or wet in some regions. The study's authors say they have identified giant meanders in the global jet stream that bring polar air southward, locking in frigid or wet conditions concurrently over much of North America and Europe, often for weeks at a time. Such weather waves, they say, have doubled in frequency since the 1960s. In just the last few years, they have killed hundreds of people and paralyzed energy and transport systems.
"NASA's Eclipse Explorer 2023 lets you track the Oct. 14 annular solar eclipse with new interactive map"
"A spectacular annular solar eclipse will grace the Americas on Oct. 14 and you can track it down to the exact second with NASA's 2023 Eclipse Explorer. The Eclipse Explorer's interactive map details when and where the eclipse will be visible, including the path and duration of annularity (the areas from which the 'ring of fire' can be seen), allowing users to dive into the eclipse viewing experience like never before. Find out exactly when the eclipse will be visible at your location and watch how the eclipse evolves in time. You can toggle between cities and use the slider bar at the bottom to move through different stages of the eclipse."
See more from Space.com HERE HERE:
"September Was the Most Anomalously Hot Month Ever"
"In a year already overloaded with so many climate-related superlatives, it's time to add another to the list: September was the most anomalously warm month ever recorded. And the steady heat building this year could make 2023 not only the hottest year on record but the first to exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial temperatures, or the stable climate that preceded the massive release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere from burning fossil fuels. Under the landmark Paris climate accord, nations have pledged to try to keep global warming under that threshold. "It's very worrying," says Kate Marvel, a senior climate scientist at Project Drawdown, a nonprofit organization that develops roadmaps for climate solutions."
See more from Scientific American HERE:
