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Snow Depth Comparison Now vs Last Year
The Twin Cities has only seen 5.3" of snow so far this season with only a trace to a light coating of snow on the ground across much of the state. Last year at this time, the Twin Cities had already had already seen 33.3" of snow with 6" of snow on the ground. On the other hand, Duluth had already seen nearly 63" of snow with 27" of snow on the ground. What a difference!
January 2nd Was Perihelion
Earth reached its closest distance to the sun yesterday, a phenomenon known as perihelion. During perihelion, Earth is approximately 3.1 million miles closer to the sun than it will be at aphelion on July 5. It's important to note that Earth's orbit around the sun is not perfectly circular, resulting in an occurrence of perihelion and aphelion once per year.
Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI)
"Winter seasons have significant societal impacts across all sectors ranging from direct human health and mortality to commerce, transportation, and education. The question "How severe was this winter?" does not have a simple answer. At the very least, the severity of a winter is related to the intensity and persistence of cold weather, the amount of snow, and the amount and persistence of snow on the ground. The Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI) was developed to objectively quantify and describe the relative severity of the winter season."
It's probably no surprise, but most locations around the Midwest and Great Lakes have had a "Mild" winter so far. Again, we're still waiting for the other boot to drop, but being in an El Nino setup, a winter like last year is not really in the cards. The Midwest will likely see an overall warmer and less snowy winter.
"Mild" Winter So Far in for the Twin Cities
Here's a look at the Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI) for Minneapolis, MN so far this winter season. With a lack of cold temps and snow, it may be no surprise that we are currently sitting under a "Mild" winter rating so far.
Seasonal Snowfall So Far
The Twin Cities has only seen ~5" of snow this season, which is nearly -14.0" below normal snowfall, which is the 24th least snowy starts to any season on record. With only ~8" of snow in Duluth, they are more than 2 feet below normal snowfall and good enough for the 8th least snowy starts to any season on record. Marquette, MI is nearly 54" below normal snowfall and currently sitting at the 4th least snowy start to any season on record.
Seasonal Snowfall Departure From Average
Looking around the region, no climate site has a surplus this season. The biggest deficits are around the Great Lakes, where we typically get lake effect snow, but with a lack of Arctic air, we haven't seen much in the way of heavy snow yet this season.
Twin Cities Average Snowfall
Depending on what 30-year average you look at, December is typically the 1st or 2nd snowiest month out of the year in the Twin Cities. If you look at the last 30 years 1993-2022, December averages 12.7" of snow and is the snowiest month of the year, followed by January with nearly 11" of snow.
Quiet Early 2024. More Active By The Weekend?
The weather outlook through the first week of January looks pretty quiet across much of the Midwest. However, things could get a little more interesting as we approach the weekend and next week. Some of the longer-range models are suggesting the potential of more active weather across the Midwest and Central US. Stay tuned...
Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Wednesday
The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Wednesday, January 3rd will be quiet with lingering clouds. Temps will warm to around 30F with only a few peeks of sunshine.
Meteograms For Minneapolis
Temperatures in the Twin Cities on Wednesday won't move very much with readings hovering in the upper 20s throughout the day. There could be a few peeks of sunshine in the afternoon, but much of the day will remain cloudy with northerly winds around 15mph to 20mph.
Weather Outlook For Wednesday
The weather outlook for Wednesday will warm into the 20s for much of the state with even colder conditions up north with highs only warming into the 10s. Despite being a little colder on Wednesday, temperatures will still be running about 5F above average for this time of the year.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
The 5 day temperature outlook for Minneapolis will still be warmer than average by nearly 5F to 10F. The warmest days will be late week and into the weekend with highs warming into the low/mid 30s. We may also see a little snow around the region this weekend, including the Twin Cities. Stay tuned...
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended weather outlook for Minneapolis over the next 7 days will warm into the 20s and 30s through early next week, which will still be nearly 5F to 10F above average for early January. The week ahead keeps us still very quiet around the region, but as we approach the weekend and the following week, things could get a little more active. Areas of snow could develop as we approach the weekend with even more into early next week.
Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
Temps in the Twin Cities through the first week and a half of January look to remain above average by nearly 5F to 10F. However, we are getting indications of cooldown as we approach mid-month. Note that we have had very little in the way of cold air this season, so it may feel quite a bit colder during the 2nd half of the month.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook, we're finally starting to see some changes. Note that colder than average temperatures may start to develop across the western half of the country, including the Midwest!
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
The 8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook shows more active weather across much of the nation, including the Midwest. With that being said, it looks like we may be seeing a better chance of snow.
Quiet This Week, Then Colder And Snowier
By Paul Douglas
A Minnesota winter is not a season. It's an occupation. Last year we picked up nearly 2 winters worth of snow. The first half of this winter has been typical for... Kansas. As we all know, past performance is not indicative of future results. In spite of an overwhelming El Nino signal locking in dry, mild, Pacific winds - there will be exceptions.
Colder air always comes in waves, like breakers on the beach. I see 30s into Sunday but we cool off into the 20s next week (average), maybe teens late next week with nights in single digits. You know, like winter?
Each successive burp of chilly air will be preceded by a little snow. A coating to an inch Saturday, maybe a few inches next Monday? Enough to whiten lawns and fields. No big snowstorms, but potentially shovel-worthy. ECMWF ensemble models show highs topping 40F by early February after an abbreviated, edited version of a Minnesota winter.
If anyone asks we've picked up 6 minutes and 22 seconds of daylight since December 21. Notice any difference yet?
Extended Forecast
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy, breezy. Winds: NW 10-15. High 31.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy and chillier. Winds: NW 10-15. High 15.
THURSDAY: Plenty of sunshine. Winds: SW 8-13. High 29.
FRIDAY: Clouds increase, nighttime coating? Winds: S 10-15. Wake-up: 23. High 36.
SATURDAY: Coating to an inch of light snow. Winds: S 8-13. Wake-up: 28. High 33.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy and dry. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 26. High: 31.
MONDAY: Couple inches of snow possible. Winds: NE 10-15. Wake-up: 27. High: 30.
TUESDAY: Drying out. A colder breeze. Winds: WNW 10-20. Wake-up: 25. High 28.
This Day in Weather History
January 3rd
1941: Grand Portage gets over 4.5 inches of precipitation in 24 hours. That's roughly how much normally falls there during the 'winter' months from November to February.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
January 3rd
Average High: 24F (Record: 45F set in 1897 & 1998)
Average Low: 11F (Record: -36F set in 1885)
Record Rainfall: 0.46" set in 1999
Record Snowfall: 6.1" set in 1999
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
January 3rd
Sunrise: 7:50am
Sunset: 4:43pm
Hours of Daylight: ~8 hours & 53 minutes
Daylight GAINED since yesterday: 57 Seconds
Daylight GAINED since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 7 minutes
Moon Phase for January 3rd at Midnight
0.1 Days After Last Quarter
National High Temps on Wednesday
The weather outlook on Wednesday looks fairly mild across much of the nation for the third day of the new year except for the Southern US, where temps will be a little cooler. Weather conditions will turn more active across the Western US with areas of rain (and thunder) along the West Coast with some snow in the high elevations.
National Weather Outlook For Wednesday
The National Weather Outlook on Wednesday will be a little more active across parts of the nation than it was over the New Year's holiday. A cool front will spark some rain/snow showers around the Great Lakes Region. Areas of rain and thunder will develop in the Southern US and a much larger rain/snow event will develop in the Western US.
National Weather Outlook
The National Weather outlook through Thursday shows snowfall potential around the Great Lakes region through midweek. Areas of rain and thunder will be possible in the Southern US, but a much larger storm will develop in the Western US with heavier coastal rains and high elevation snow.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
The extended precipitation outlook shows heavier precipitation developing across the Southern and Eastern US through early next week. Note that some of this on the northern side of the heaviest band of precipitation could be in the form of snow. We'll also see some heavier precipitation develop across the West Coast with several inches possible along the coast and in the higher elevations.
Extended Snowfall Outlook
According to the ECMWF weather model, We could be entering a more active weather pattern across the nation after the first few days of the month. Areas of snow (heavy at times) could develop across parts of the Western Central and Northeastern US. Stay tuned as we approach next weekend and the week after.
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