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If the Vikings thrive on diminished expectations and a lack of respect — and there is some evidence that they do based on the level to which they exceeded rather middling projections this entire season — they would do well to conduct a basic Google search of NFL playoff predictions.
If the Vikings can find someone picking them to win more than one playoff game and reach at least the NFC title game, they had better luck than I did.
No such prediction came to light during my search; instead, it was a constant barrage of divisional-round losses to the 49ers, mixed in with a healthy (though not majority) serving of upset predictions at the hands of the Giants on Sunday.
Here's a quick scan of what others are predicting in Sunday's game:
THE (RELATIVELY) GOOD
- ESPN's Bill Barnwell had the most explicitly articulated prediction, as he went game-by-game through the entire playoffs. He picked the Vikings in a narrow victory (26-24) over the Giants, but he wrote this of their chances should they meet the 49ers: "I'll keep this one simple: I don't think the Vikings stand a chance in San Francisco, even with a third-string quarterback on the other side of the field." His final score: 34-10, 49ers over the Vikings.
- SI's MMQB had an entire panel weigh in on picks throughout the playoffs. Of the eight who made picks, seven liked the Vikings over the Giants while just one picked a New York upset. But all seven who took the Vikings to win Sunday had them losing to San Francisco next weekend.
- The Sporting News only picked this weekend's games. And while noting the Vikings game has "the best chance for a road upset," the Vikings got the nod in a 28-22 projected win.
THE BAD
- CBS Sports picked a 24-21 Giants victory, noting that the Vikings defense "will make the New York offense look better than it is."
- Likewise, Bleacher Report took New York in a close one, 28-24, correctly stating that "the Vikings hit rock bottom when they don't play well."
- Every writer for the Giants SB Nation site took the Giants, as did the New York Post, though you can perhaps chalk most of that up to home cooking.
THE GLIMMER OF HOPE?
FiveThirtyEight's prediction model, which should be devoid of any emotional biases, gives the Vikings a 67% chance to defeat the Giants and a 24% chance to reach the NFC title game.
If we deconstruct that, the implied chance of the Vikings winning the divisional-round game (possible only, of course, if they win Sunday) is 35.8%.
So if you're a Vikings fan uneasy about the Giants game, think of it this way: The Vikings' chances of winning next week are a little better than the Giants' chances of winning this week, at least according to one model.
