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Winter Hazard Awareness Week in Minnesota and Wisconsin (November 14th - 18th)
November 14th through the 18th is Winter Hazard Awareness Week in Minnesota and Wisconsin. Each year, the National Weather Service, the Minnesota Division of Homeland Security and Emergency Management, and Wisconsin Emergency Management promote winter safety and preparedness for all citizens wherever they are: in their homes, on the road, at work and at play. Unfortunately, many people each year suffer needlessly because they are unaware of the potential dangers of the winter season. Winter safety information will be presented each day during the week of November 14th. The winter safety information will be separated into the 5 topics this week.
Monday, November 14th: Winter Storms
The National Weather Service provides a variety of different forecast products and watches/warnings. The latest forecasts for snowfall amounts, ice accumulations, and wind chills can be found on our Winter Weather page. A map that shows the winter weather watches and warnings in effect can be found on the front page of the National Weather Service Twin Cities web site. On the NWS Twin Cities web site, you can click anywhere on the front page map or enter a zip code in the upper left corner to get a forecast specific to a single location.
Watch/Warning Definitions
Winter Storm Watch: Severe weather conditions, including heavy snow, blowing snow, freezing rain and/or sleet , may soon affect your area. If a watch is issued for your area, you should pay special attention to future forecasts and statements, and begin to make safety preparations.
Winter Storm Warning: Severe winter weather conditions are occurring or are imminent. Most warnings are issued for heavy snow and wind, but may also be issued for ice and sleet storms. If a warning is issued for your area you should take immediate action to ensure the appropriate safety precautions have been taken.
Blizzard Warning: Visibilities are reduced to less than 1/4 mile for several hours due to falling and/or blowing snow, making travel virtually impossible. The wind will be at least 35 mph.
Snow Squall Warning: An exceptionally rare warning that most typically applies to lake effect snow squalls, where visibility drops to near-zero. It is issued for one hour or less for a small area, and is relayed as a Wireless Emergency Alert.
Advisories: These are issued for conditions which warrant increased public awareness and moderately hamper travel, but where the weather is not severe enough to merit a warning.
Wind Chill: The cooling effect upon exposed skin, produced by the combination of temperature and wind. A copy of the Wind Chill Chart is available on our web site.
See more from the NWS Twin Cities HERE:
See more from the Minnesota Department of Public Safety HERE:
Somewhat Snowy Monday
Here's the simulated radar from AM Monday to midday Tuesday, which shows light snow lingering across the region with minor snow accumulations possible. Because it has been so cold as of late, the ground has froze, meaning what ever falls will likely stick. It won't be heavy, but there could be some slick spots over the next few days.
Snowfall Potential
Here's the snowfall potential through 6AM Wednesday, which shows some minor accumulations possible. It appears that locations around the Twin Cities could see some 2" to 4" tallies through midweek, while a few locations in Central Minnesota could see some 3" to 5" tallies. The heaviest snow in the state will be along the North Shore, which will be enhance by Lake Superior and higher terrain there. Tan lawns will likely turn some shade of white this week.
Battle of the (Weather Model) Bands
Here's a look at some of the longer range models through the week ahead. The ECMWF, GFS and NBM are all suggesting snowfall accumulations of around 1" to 4" through the week ahead. Some locations could be on the higher end of that scale or slightly higher through the end of the week, while others will be on the lower end of that scale. Regardless, it looks like we'll be getting some of our first snowfall accumulations of the season this week.
ECMWF (European) Model:
GFS (American ) Model:
NBM - National Blend of Models:
Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Monday
Here's the weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Monday, November 14th. Areas of light snow will be possible for much of the day, which could bring some 1" to 2" tallies to the metro. Temperature will hover around the freezing mark during the afternoon, but it should be cold enough to stick in many spots.
Weather Outlook on Monday
It'll be a cold and somewhat snowy day across the region with temps warming into the 20s and lower 30s, which will be nearly -5F to -15F below average for mid November. Snow won't be terribly heavy, but it'll be last long enough to accumulate across parts of the region.
Feels Like Temps on Monday
Feels like temps early Monday morning will be chilly with readings down around 20F. Much of the day will feel subfreezing with wind chill values only 'warming' into the mid/upper 20s by the afternoon.
Meteograms For Minneapolis
Temps on Monday will still be quite cold for this time of the year. Readings in the morning will start in the mid 20s in the Twin Cities and will only warm to the lower 30s by the afternoon. Southeasterly winds will be a little steadier with gusts around 10mph - 15mph.
Precipitation Departure From Average This Fall
It has been a very dry Fall so far with precipitation running more than 4.57" below average (since September 1st). The September 1st - November 12th time period was the 6th driest on record.
Precipitation Departure From Average Since Jan. 1st
The Twin Cities is nearly 9.5" below average for the year, which is the 21st driest start to any year on record (through November 12th). Meanwhile, International Fall, MN is still nearly 9.66" above average, which is still the 2nd wettest start to any year on record there.
Drought Update
It has been a dry year for many across central and southern MN. Extreme drought continues across parts of the Twin Cities to the Minnesota River Valley where rainfall deficits have been the greatest. It would be nice to get a good soaking prior to heading into winter, but it doesn't appear that anything substantial is on the way anytime soon.
Continued Cold Through Mid November
The 850mb temp anomaly through most of next week shows below average temps across much of the Nation. It appears that the cold air is here to stay for quite some.
Record Cold Highs Possible Friday?
Friday will be a very cold day with record cold high temps possible across parts of the state. It'll feel like January in November!
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows well below average temperatures in place over the next several days. It'll feel more like winter with highs only warming into the 20s and lower 30s, which will be nearly -10F to -20F below average for this time of the year. Friday could be even colder with highs only warming into the teens, which will be nearly -25F below average.
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended weather outlook over the next 7 days shows well below average temperatures in place over the next several days. There could also be several days of light snow next week, which could mean light snow accumulations across the region.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
Here's the extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis through the last full week of November. The NBM Model shows well below average temperatures continuing with another surge of colder weather late next week/weekend. The coldest air of the season arrives Thursday - Saturday, which will likely be the coldest since March.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows colder than average temps in place across much of the nation and especially across the eastern half of the nation as we approach the week of Thanksgiving.
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows quieter weather in place across most of the eastern two-thirds of the nation.
Snowy Surprise This Week. Hibernating Cold Ahead.
By Todd Nelson, filling in for Douglas
If there's one thing we've learned about living in Minnesota, it doesn't take long for the weather to change once peak fall color has passed. I don't know about you, but my goosebumps have goosebumps. I haven't acclimated to the mid winter chill quite yet. Before we know it, we'll all be joining Old Man Winter's workout plan. Shovel & shiver, shovel and shiver. Sounds about right.
Hard to believe that 2weeks ago, we were dealing with record warmth (76F on November 2nd). Today we're talking snow with some 1 to 2 inch tallies possible by the end of the day. Recent cold weather has allowed the ground to freeze, so roads could be a bit slick. Slow commutes? You betcha!
Light snow accumulations linger through midweek turning your neighbor's leafy lawn into an enchanting shade of white. A reinforcing shot of cold weather arrives Thursday with subzero wind chills AM Friday and Saturday. The coldest since last March.
If you need me, I'll be hibernating. Emerging from my Snuggie blanket to the smell of warm gravy on Thanksgiving (maybe).
Extended Forecast
MONDAY: 1" to 2" snow possible. Winds: ESE 5. High: 32.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a chance of snow. Winds: ESE 5. Low: 28.
TUESDAY: Light snow. Another coating to 1". Winds: ENE 5. High: 33.
WEDNESDAY: Lingering flakes & flurries. Winds: NNW 5-10. Wake-up: 26. High: 32.
THURSDAY: Another light snow chance. Colder. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 18. High: 24.
FRIDAY: Peeks of sun. Icy winds. Winds: WNW 10-15. Wake-up: 11. High: 18.
SATURDAY: Hibernating. Coldest since last winter. Winds: WSW 5. Wake-up: 9. High: 20.
SUNDAY: More sun. Still feels like January. Winds: SW 10-15. Wake-up: 9. High: 23.
This Day in Weather History
November 14th
2002: A magnitude 7.9 earthquake in Alaska turned some well water black in southeast Minnesota due to magnesium particles that were shaken loose.
1996: An ice storm moves through much of central and southern Minnesota and west central Wisconsin. Schools closed or began late over much of southern Minnesota the morning of the 15th due to a 1/2 inch thick layer of ice that covered much of the area. Flights were canceled at Minneapolis/St. Paul International Airport due to ice forming on airplanes and runways, although mainly sleet was reported in the Twin Cities.
1833: A spectacular meteor shower is witnessed at Ft. Snelling.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
November 14th
Average High: 43F (Record: 71F set in 1990)
Average Low: 28F (Record: 0F set in 1919)
Record Rainfall: 0.8" set in 1926
Record Snowfall: 2.5" set in 1951
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
November 14th
Sunrise: 7:09am
Sunset: 4:45pm
Hours of Daylight: ~9 hours & 35 minutes
Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 2 minutes & 24 seconds
Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 21st): ~ 6 hour & 4 minutes
Moon Phase for November 14th at Midnight
1.3 Days Before Last Quarter Moon
National High Temps Monday
The weather outlook on Monday shows well below average temperatures continuing across much of the nation with readings nearly -10F to -20F below average. Cold cold high temps maybe possible across the Texas Panhandle.
National Weather Outlook Monday
The weather outlook for Monday shows a larger storm system developing across the Central US. Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible along parts of the Gulf Coast with areas of rain and snow moving into the Central Plains and Upper Midwest.
National Weather Outlook
The weather outlook through Tuesday shows a decent storm system developing in the Central US with areas of thunderstorms and rain across the Southern US, while areas of snow will be found farther north.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, it'll be a soggy start to the week across the Gulf Coast and Eastern US. Meanwhile, there will be accumulating precipitation farther north, but this will likely fall in the form of snow in the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region.
Snowfall Potential
According to the ECMWF (European model), snow accumulations will be possible across more of the nation as we head through, what will be, a very chilly middle part of November for many nationwide.
Climate Stories
"How Centuries-Old Whaling Logs Are Filling Gaps In Our Climate Knowledge"
"A little after 7:30 in the morning on Wednesday, December 7, 1887, in the aftermath of remarkably strong northeasterly winds, Captain William A. Martin instructed the crew of the Eunice H. Adams, a whaling ship from Massachusetts, to anchor in cerulean water roughly 24 feet deep, close to Port Royal, South Carolina. Around 9 a.m., Charles Hamilton, a desperate crew member, jumped overboard — deserting his post, with the intention of swimming to land. He was intercepted mid-route by another ship, which returned him to the leaking brig he had tried to escape. Later that day, an act of near-mutiny occurred. According to the ship's logbook, a signed letter from the majority of the crew was sent ashore to Port Royal authorities. In it, the men complained that the vessel they sailed on was "unseaworthy," unhappy with the unplanned stop and delay for repairs merely months into their voyage, in the hope that they'd be released from duty. Authorities did nothing. A sheet of rain beat down on the Eunice H. Adams, and the miserable crew was forced to continue to carry on to Cabo Verde, an archipelago on the westernmost point of Africa."
See more from Civil Beat HERE:
"A mountain, a tower, a thermos of molten salt. These are the batteries that could power our renewable future"
"Blackouts are a devastating reality of our climate-changed world. An unprecedented winter storm in 2021 knocked out power for millions of Texans for days, killing hundreds, and this summer Californians managed to barely save their state's power grid from the brink of collapse during a record-breaking heat wave. Some blackouts are caused by storms destroying infrastructure like transmission lines and substations — just look at what's happened in Puerto Rico after Hurricanes Maria and, more recently, Fiona. But many blackouts can also be blamed on how the electric system works. Namely: The goal of the power grid is to deliver electricity to your home as soon as it's been generated at a power plant. There isn't a great pool of electricity waiting in reserve for when demand spikes. Experts say that needs to change."
What is a flash drought? An earth scientist explains
"Many people are familiar with flash floods – torrents that develop quickly after heavy rainfall. But there's also such a thing as a flash drought, and these sudden, extreme dry spells are becoming a big concern for farmers and water utilities. Flash droughts start and intensify quickly, over periods of weeks to months, compared to years or decades for conventional droughts. Still, they can cause substantial economic damage, since communities have less time to prepare for the impacts of a rapidly evolving drought. In 2017, a flash drought in Montana and the Dakotas damaged crops and grasses that served as forage for cattle, causing US$2.6 billion in agricultural losses. Flash droughts also can increase wildfire risks, cause public water supply shortages and reduce stream flow, which harms fish and other aquatic life."
See more from The Conversation HERE:
