Paul Douglas On Weather
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A Few Showers And Storms Around Friday

As we head into Friday, we will be watching shower and thunderstorm potential across the Twin Cities. The greatest potential will be in the early morning hours, with redevelopment possible in the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, partly sunny skies are expected. Temperatures will start off in the mid-60s, only climbing to the mid-70s for highs.

We will watch the potential of showers and storms across the state on Friday, with the greatest odds of seeing more constant rain up across parts of northern Minnesota (particularly the Arrowhead region). Highs will range from near 60F up in northern Minnesota to near 80F in the south.


More Soggy Weather This Weekend

As we head into the weekend, we will watch more storm chances as we get a frontal boundary to move through. That'll help spark off those chances late Saturday into Saturday Night and (mainly early) Sunday in the metro. Highs through the weekend will be in the upper 70s to around 80F.

A few of the storms that pop later Saturday into Saturday Night could be on the strong side across southern Minnesota from the metro southward. A Marginal Risk of severe weather (threat level 1 of 5) is in place.


Rain Potential Through 7 AM Monday

The heaviest rain the next several days will be up across northern Minnesota, where rainfall amounts could top 3" for some locations. This will lead to the potential of flash flooding - particularly through Friday - up across the Arrowhead. Down toward the Metro, a generalized quarter to half an inch can be expected with some isolated 1" amounts.


Drought Update

The story, when looking at this week's latest Drought Monitor, is the increase of all the active categories across the state. The amount of the state under Severe Drought (mainly across the metro and out into the southern suburbs) went from 0.97% to 1.94%. Moderate Drought increased from 8.85% to 10.62%, and areas that are at least abnormally dry went up to 39.12% from the 25.96% it was at last week. That's due to recent dry weather. Hopefully rain the next several days will help us see a decrease by next Thursday.

Looking at the strict week-to-week change map, you can see numerous areas saw worsening conditions by a category this week.


Warming Back Up For A Couple Days Next Week

Dry weather moves back in for Monday, but with that will come warmer weather once again. Highs will make it back to the mid-80s on Tuesday before another frontal system moves through, bringing a storm chance and much cooler air in. While highs on Wednesday still look to make it into the 70s at the moment, model guidance is showing 60s behind that front for next Thursday through at least Saturday.


Fall Color Update

We are starting to see more pockets of color popping up across the state according to the Minnesota DNR. As of the latest update, several state parks in northwestern, western, and southern Minnesota are reporting 10-25% color. Flandrau State Park reported Thursday, "You'll see that most trees and grasses are fairly green. Some of the trees are starting to shift to yellow." You can keep your eye on this map over the next several weeks from the MN DNR by clicking here.

Here's a handy map of typical peak fall colors from the MN DNR. This ranges from mid/late September in far northern Minnesota to mid-October in southern parts of the state.


NOAA Issues New Winter Weather Outlook
By Paul Douglas

Hello darkness my old friend. We are losing roughly 3 minutes of daylight with every passing day, as Earth's northern hemisphere tilts away from the sun. One of the few things we can predict with utter precision. Winter is coming, and NOAA's latest December - February outlook forecasts colder than normal for Minnesota, with "equal chances" for precipitation. Meaning no strong wet or dry signal for the Upper Midwest. Odds are it won't be anything like last winter, in spite of a nagging La Nina cold phase in the Pacific. "Colder with some snow". Take it to the bank.

Severe drought now covers the southern half of the Twin Cities metro area, so I won't whine about showers and T-storms today; probably the wettest day in sight. Expect squirts and spurts of lukewarm, slightly-humidified air Saturday and Sunday with afternoon temperatures near 80F. Another swarm of T-storms may bubble up Saturday night. Bring it on.

Mid-80s early next week? Impressive, considering the sun angle is now equivalent to late March.


Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

FRIDAY: Few showers, T-storms. Wake up 66. High 76. Chance of precipitation 80%. Wind S 10-15 mph.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny, nighttime T-storms. Wake up 65. High 81. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind S 7-12 mph.

SUNDAY: Damp start, then lukewarm sunshine. Wake up 65. High 80. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind NW 7-12 mph.

MONDAY: Sunny spells, nighttime thunder. Wake up 62. High 79. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind SE 5-10 mph.

TUESDAY: Warm sunshine, feels like August. Wake up 64. High 86. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SE 5-10 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy, windy and cooler. Wake up 63. High 70. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NW 15-25 mph.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny, feels like autumn. Wake up 53. High 63. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.


Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
September 16th

*Length Of Day: 12 hours, 28 minutes, and 43 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 3 minutes and 5 seconds

*When Do We Drop Below 12 Hours Of Daylight?: September 26th (11 hours, 57 minutes, 40 seconds)
*When Does The Sun Start Rising At/After 7 AM?: September 22nd (7:00 AM)
*When Does The Sun Start Setting At/Before 7 PM?: September 27th (7:00 PM)


This Day in Weather History
September 16th

2006: A rapidly forming tornado hits Rogers just before 10pm, causing one fatality.

1992: New Market receives nearly a foot of rain. A bridge collapses during a flood in northern Le Sueur County.

1955: An F1 tornado touches down in Mille Lacs and Kanabec Counties, causing 1 fatality and $500,000 in damages.


National Weather Forecast

On Friday, a system in the Upper Midwest will bring the chance of showers and storms, some of which could be strong. This area of rain extends back into the Rockies, where some snow may even mix in at higher elevations. We're also tracking a frontal boundary still positioned near the Gulf Coast and across Florida producing storms and heavy rain.

Two areas of heavy rain will be possible across the nation through Saturday evening - one across northern Minnesota and a second in Florida. These areas have the highest potential of seeing widespread 3"+ tallies.


Air pollution may spur irregular heart rhythms in teens: study

More from The Hill: "Breathing in tiny particles of air pollution may trigger irregular heart rhythms in otherwise healthy teenagers and increase their risk of sudden cardiac death, a new study has found. The study, published in the Journal of the American Heart Association on Wednesday, investigated the impact of inhaling fine particulate matter — also known as PM 2.5 — on heart rhythms of adolescents. Such particles, which are smaller than 2.5 microns in diameter, are key pollutants in wildfire smoke and in vehicle exhaust and can irritate the lungs and blood vessels of the heart."

How Cash-Strapped Schools Are Benefiting From the Sun

More from the New York Times: "One school district was able to give pay raises to its teachers as big as 30 percent. Another bought new heating and ventilation systems, all the better to help students and educators breathe easier in these times. The improvements didn't cost taxpayers a cent, and were paid for by an endlessly renewable source — the Sun. As solar energy gains traction across the country, one beneficiary have been schools, particularly those in cash-strapped districts contending with dwindling tax bases. From New Jersey to California, nearly one in 10 K-12 public and private schools across the country were using solar energy by early 2022, according to data released Thursday by Generation180, a nonprofit that promotes and tracks clean energy. That's twice as many as existed in 2015."

Historic famine looms as drought grips East Africa

More from Grist: "According to the United Nations, the worst famine of the twenty-first century is unfolding in the Horn of Africa. For months, a climate-change-fueled drought of historic proportions and supply chain disruptions caused by the war in Ukraine have combined to cause severe food shortages in Somalia, Ethiopia, and Kenya.Famine experts expect the situation to deteriorate through the fall and winter. A recent report from the Food Security and Nutrition Working Group of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development, a trade block representing East African countries, found that more than 25 million people across the region could be experiencing dire food insecurity by early 2023."


Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).

- D.J. Kayser