Paul Douglas On Weather
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Monday Weather Outlook

A quiet, chilly start to the work week is expected in the Twin Cities Monday. While the graphics say partly cloudy, I think we will see more clouds than sun - or mostly cloudy skies - throughout much of the day. Temperatures start the day off around freezing, only climbing into the low 40s for highs.

Monday should be fairly dry across the state, but I can't rule out a few spare sprinkles at times. Clouds will be on the decrease from northern and western Minnesota southeastward, so we'll call the day partly to mostly sunny. It'll be a cool day statewide, with highs only in the upper 30s to low 40s in most locations. These highs will be 10F-20F degrees below average.

Winds will be breezy once again on Monday, with north-northwest winds gusting up to around 25 mph at times in the Twin Cities.

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Extended Temperature Outlook

It'll be a cool start to the week in the Twin Cities, with highs only in the 40s Monday through Wednesday behind the cold front that moved through late Sunday. Warmer weather returns for Thursday and Friday with highs back around 60F - just a couple of degrees shy of average, which by Friday is 62F.

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April Summary Through Saturday

Despite some of our cooler and wetter weather, it has still be a warmer than average start to the month in the Twin Cities. Through Saturday, our average temperature has been 49.5F, +5.2F degrees from average and tied for the 15th warmest start to the month. While we are above average precipitation-wise - and that precipitation has greatly helped the drought situation across the region - we have seen below average snowfall (which I don't think too many people will complain about!).

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Jackets This Week - Spring Returns Next Week
By Paul Douglas

"What a few degrees, Paul? Who cares." I hear less of that over time, by the way. Most sentinent adults (and their kids) realize our climate is changing. A 5F drop in temperature triggered the last Ice Age 18,000 years ago - so yes, a few degrees can have a big impact.

The Le Sourfriere volcanic eruption on the island of Saint Vincent in the Caribbean may have already spewed .5 teragrams of SO2 (sulfer dioxide) into the upper atmosphere. Researchers suggest 5 teragrams of SO2 might have a measurable (cooling) effect on global climate. That said, it's probably suboptimal to rely on volcanoes for future cooling requirements.

An airmass of Canadian heritage cools us off to jacket levels today. Expect a cool bias into the weekend, but (all) models show a surge of milder, wetter air next week, with 60s, even a shot at 70s and T-storms. No headline-grabbing storms this week, but significant rain-makers return next week. Spring is an atmospheric tug-of-war, a wild ride. All we can do is watch & wonder.

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Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

MONDAY: Cloudy and chilly. Wake up 32. High 40. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy, stray PM shower. Wake up 30. High 43. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind NW 10-15 mph.

WEDNESDAY: More clouds than sun, brisk. Wake up 29. High 43. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 8-13 mph.

THURSDAY: More sunshine, feels like spring. Wake up 32. High 60. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind W 10-20 mph.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy, PM sprinkle. Wake up 42. High 55. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind S 10-20 mph.

SATURDAY: Ragged clouds, a few rain showers. Wake up 43. High 52. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.

SUNDAY: Some AM sun, late day shower risk. Wake up 32. High 49. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind E 5-10 mph.

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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
April 19th

Record Snow Depth: 7" in 2013

*Length Of Day:13 hours, 42 minutes and58 seconds
*Daylight GAINED Since Yesterday:~2 minutes and 57 seconds

*When Do We Climb To 14 Hours Of Daylight?April 25th (14 hours,0 minutes, and 21 seconds)
*When Is The Sunrise At/Before 6:00 AM?: May 2nd (6:00 AM)
*When Is The Sunset At/After 8:30 PM?: May 11th (8:31 PM)

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This Day in Weather History
April 19th

1928: Chilly air moves across the region with a record low of 19 at the Twin Cities.

1893: A heavy snowstorm at Bird Island would last until the 21st. 17 inches of snow would fall, with drifts 3 to 4 feet high.

1820: The first tornado ever reported in Minnesota hits the camp that would soon become Ft. Snelling. It damages the roof of a barracks, with no one injured.

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National Weather Forecast

As a cold front continues to work south and east on Monday - positioned early in the day from the Front Range and Central Plains to the Great Lakes - rain and snow showers will be possible from the Northern Rockies through Central Plains, Great Lakes, and the Northeast. An area of low pressure near the Carolina coast will bring the potential for some storms. The cold front still positioned across Florida will lead to more heavy rain.

The heaviest rain through the first part of the week will fall across portions of Florida, where rainfall tallies from Sunday through 7 PM Tuesday could approach 5" in some locations. While the heaviest snow will be out toward the Northern Rockies where up to a foot and a half of snow could fall, we could also see a couple of inches of snow fall across portions of the Central Plains.

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Category 5 Super Typhoon Surigae brushes Philippines

More from Yale Climate Connections: "At 2 p.m. EDT Saturday, April 17, the Japan Meteorological Agency put Surigae's central pressure at an astounding 895 mb, beating the previous record low pressure for a typhoon this early in the year by 15 mb. (Previous record: 910 mb, Super Typhoon Maysak, Mar. 31-Apr 1., 2015.) The Joint Typhoon Warning Center put Surigae's peak 1-minute average winds at 190 mph, making it the strongest typhoon so early in the year, as rated by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, JTWC. (Previous record: Super Typhoon Hester, 185 mph winds, January 1, 1953.)"

Despite Tensions, U.S. and China Agree to Work Together on Climate Change

More from the New York Times: "The United States and China have said they will fight climate change "with the seriousness and urgency that it demands" by stepping up efforts to reduce carbon emissions, a rare demonstration of cooperation amid escalating tensions over a raft of other issues. The agreement, which included few specific commitments, was announced on Saturday night, Washington time, after President Biden's climate envoy, John Kerry, visited China for three days of talks in which the negotiators managed not to be sidetracked by those disputes."

Deciduous trees offset carbon loss from Alaskan boreal fires, new study out of NAU finds

More from Northern Arizona University: "More severe and frequent fires in the Alaskan boreal forest are releasing vast stores of carbon and nitrogen from burned trees and soil into the atmosphere, a trend that could accelerate climate warming. But new research published this week in the journal Science shows that the deciduous trees replacing burned spruce forests more than make up for that loss, storing more carbon and accumulating it four times faster over a 100-year fire interval. The study, led by a team of researchers at the Center for Ecosystem Science and Society at Northern Arizona University, suggests these faster-growing, less flammable deciduous forests may act as a stabilizing 'firebreak' against escalating fire patterns and nutrient loss in the region."

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Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).

- D.J. Kayser