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Driest September on Record at MSP?
Well this kind of snuck up on us, but did you realize that MSP has only seen 0.23" of rain so far this month? If MSP doesn't see any additional rainfall through next Friday, this will be the driest September on record at MSP.
September Precipitation
Here's how much rain has fallen across the region through the first 3 weeks of the month. Despite a few pockets of heavy rain here and there, September has been a fair dry month for many. The most widespread heavy rain has fallen across parts of Wisconsin, where Milwaukee has seen 6.23" of rain and is at their 9th wettest September on record.
September Precipitation Departure From Average
Looking at the precipitation departures from average for the month of September, many locations are running deficits, some bigger than others. Again, September has been a pretty dry month in the Midwest with the exception of southern Wisconsin.
Yearly Precipitation Departure From Average
If we take a look at the year as a whole, rainfall has been hit or miss around the region as well. Minneapolis is nearly -7" below average (24th driest start to any year on record), but 75 miles north of the MSP in St. Cloud, there is a +5" surplus, which is the 20th wettest start to any year on record. Meanwhile, International Falls is nearly +11.50" above average and is currently sitting at the wettest start to any year on record!
Mostly Dry Extended Forecast
Here's the precipitation outlook through the weekend, which shows very little rainfall across the region. In fact, it looks dry through the end of the month and into the first few days of October.
Dry Last Full Week of September
Here's the weather outlook from through the last full week of September and into the first weekend of October. A bubble of high pressure will slowly drift through the Upper Midwest with a few days of very cool and fall-like weather with a couple/few mornings of frost up north!
Fall-Like Dewpoints This Week
Looking at the dewpoint forecast through the week ahead, it certainly won't be humid! As a big bubble of high pressure settles in this week, dry and mostly sunny weather will persist. Dewpoints will actually fall into the 30s Tuesday, Wednesday & Thursday, which will be some of the driest dewpoints we've seen so far this season. A lower dewpoint will also mean cooler overnight low temps as well. Sweater weather has returned.
Frosty Mornings Up North This Week
Frost advisories will be likely across parts of the region over the next few night as temperatures dip into the 30s. The coldest morning will be Wednesday with widespread 30s and possibly even some 20s in northern Minnesota and NW Wisconsin.
Hurricane Ian Strengthens
Here's a look at Hurricane Ian from PM Monday in the Caribbean. According to the National Hurricane Center, this system will continue to drift north-northeast through the week. Tropical alerts have been issued from Cuba to the south and west coast of Florida.
Ian Expected to Become a Hurricane
Here's the forecast track for Ian, which is our ninth name storm of the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Note that this storm is expected to be a major hurricane through Thursday with winds possibly as strong as 140mph on Wednesday.
Very Active Atlantic Basin
As of PM Monday, Ian was the only named storm in the basin, but there is another tropical wave that the National Hurricane Center was watching in the Central Atlantic.
Fall Color Update
It's that time of the year again for fall colors and the MN DNR has their fall color finder up and running. Much of the state is still color free, but there are a few colors popping up here and there.
Average Fall Color
The MN DNR has put together a nice graphic that shows typical dates for peak fall color. The northern par of the state starts to peak during the 2nd half of September into early October. Meanwhile, folks in the central part of the state and into the metro typically don't see peak color until the end of September into the middle part of October. It won't be long now - enjoy!
Average First Frost For MSP
Here's the 30 year average for the first frost in Minneapolis, which lands on October 13th. Last year (2021) the first frost was on October 23rd. If you look at the full MSP record, which dates back to 1873, the latest frost was November 18th back in 2016, while the earliest frost was September 3rd back in 1974.
First Measurable Snow at MSP
Here's the average first measurable snowfall (0.01") at MSP over the last 30 years, which lands on November 6th. Last year, MSP had its first measurable snow on November 13th. The last was on December 3rd back in 1928, while the earliest was September 24th in 1985.
Minnesota Drought Update
Here's the latest drought update across Minnesota. As of September 20th, we still have a sliver of moderate and severe drought conditions stretching from the Twin Cities Metro to the Minnesota River Valley.
Weather Outlook on Tuesday
Temperature on Tuesday will be nearly -5F to -10F/-15F below average for late September. Some communities northern and eastern part of Minnesota won't even make it out of the 50s. Grand Marais might even be stuck in the 40s for highs during the day - BRR!
Weather Outlook Tuesday
The weather outlook for Minneapolis on Tuesday shows dry and very chilly weather in place with temps warming into the upper 50s.
Meteograms for Minneapolis
The hourly forecast for Minneapolis on Tuesday shows temps starting in the mid 40s in the morning and warming into the mid/upper 50s by the afternoon. Skies will remain dry and mostly sunny with winds gusting close to 15mph-20mph through the day.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis over the next several days shows temps only warming into the upper 50s and 60s through the the week. Temps will be nearly -10F below average through midweek with a gradual warming trend as we approach the weekend.
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended weather outlook over the next 7 days shows another dry stretch as a bubble of high pressure settles in. Temps will be cooler than average through the first half of the week with chilly overnight lows, dipping to frosty levels for some up north. There appears to be a gradual warming trend as we approach the end of the week and weekend ahead.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
According to the ECMWF & NBM models, the extended temperature outlook shows fall-like temperature readings continuing through the first half of the week. However, there appears to be a decent warmup into early October, which will actually be a little above average for that time of the year.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows above average temps continuing across much of the nation and especially across the Western US.
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows dry weather in place from the Great Lakes to the Southern US
Hurricane Ian Threatens Gulf Coast of Florida
By Paul Douglas
Tampa Bay is one of the 10 most at-risk a reason Earth, according to The World Bank. The last time a Category 3+ hurricane struck Tampa Bay was 1921. Today there are nearly 4 million residents and local causeways close when water rises 6 feet or more.
The concern with Hurricane Ian is primarily "storm surge", a mound of water pushed ashore by screaming winds and low pressure. Ian may slow down or even stall just offshore, prolonging a firehose of wind-whipped water into coastal communities Wednesday and Thursday. Model tracks are still contradictory, but the potential for widespread wind/water damage is high from Sarasota to Tampa Bay. The "Euro" keeps the worst of the storm just offshore. It maybe a very close call.
Brisk 50s today give way to a shot at 70F by Friday with sunshine each day. A nice problem to have, but drought continues to accelerate. According to the Twin Cities National Weather Service, this is the driest September since records started in 1872 with only .23" rain. Hoping for a wet October.
Extended Forecast
TUESDAY: Sunny and brisk. Winds: N 10-15. High: 59.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear with patchy AM frost. Winds: N 5. Low: 38.
WEDNESDAY: Frosty north. Sunny with less wind. Winds: S 5-10. High: 63.
THURSDAY: Blue sky, breezy and milder. Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up: 47. High: 67.
FRIDAY: Lukewarm sunshine. Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up: 51. High: 71.
SATURDAY: Mix of clouds and sunshine. Winds: SE 7-12. Wake-up: 53. High: 72.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny, still quiet. Winds: SE 7-12. Wake-up: 55. High: 70.
MONDAY: Mellow holding pattern. Some sun. Winds: S 7-12. Wake-up: 56. High: 71.
This Day in Weather History
September 27th
1942: Minneapolis has a high temperature of only 40 degrees.
1898: A heat wave produces highs of 91 degrees at Beardsley and 90 at Moorhead.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
September 27th
Average High: 68F (Record: 88F set in 1987)
Average Low: 49F (Record: 29F set in 1942 & 1991)
Record Rainfall: 0.54" set in 1947
Record Snowfall: Trace set in 1951
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
September 27th
Sunrise: 7:06am
Sunset: 7:01pm
Hours of Daylight: ~11 hours & 54 minutes
Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 3 minutes & 6 seconds
Daylight LOST since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 3 hour & 44 minutes
Moon Phase for September 27th at Midnight
2.4 Days Since New Moon
National High Temps Tuesday
The weather outlook on Tuesday shows lingering cooler temps across the Great Lakes and Southeast. Meanwhile, temps will generally be above average across the western half of the nation.
National Weather Outlook Tuesday
An area of unsettled weather will linger in the Great Lakes and Northeast along with the Southwest. Meanwhile, we're keeping a very close eye on what's happening with Hurricane Ian as it nears the Florida coastline.
National Weather Outlook
The weather outlook through Wednesday shows a large bubble of high pressure settling in across the Midwest and Great Lakes, which will bring frosty conditions to those area later in the week. Hurricane Ian will also cause major impacts in Florida during the 2nd half of the week and weekend ahead.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, areas of heavy rainfall will be likely across Florida as Hurricane Ian moves through during the 2nd half of the week and weekend ahead.
Climate Stories
"Puerto Ricans await aid, fret about post-hurricane recovery"
"City worker Carmen Medina walked purposefully through the working-class community of Tranquility Village under a brutal sun, with clipboard, survey forms and pen in hand — part of a small army of officials trying to gauge the scope of disaster caused by Hurricane Fiona's strike on Puerto Rico. She stopped at a white-and-seafoam green house and asked the owner to detail her losses in the storm that had flooded much of the town of Toa Baja. "Oh, my dear," responded Margarita Ortiz, a 46-year-old house cleaner standing in a home that was nearly barren because so many flood-damaged belongings had already been discarded. Pockets of water still bulged from her ceiling Friday in what had been a newly painted house, and Ortiz listed what she could recall of her lost furniture and other goods. After staying in a shelter and with a friend for days, she hopes to move back into her home soon: "When you lose your bed, you lose your head."
"Alaskan tribal communities confront food insecurity after storm"
"For dozens of tribal communities in western Alaska, damage from Typhoon Merbok — fueled by climate change — deepens food insecurity. The big picture: Alaska's winter is just weeks away, and disaster recovery typically takes years. Last weekend, the remnants of Merbok lashed 1,300 miles along the western coast of Alaska with the strongest September storm ever recorded in the Bering Sea. Floods from the storm caused power outages, which wiped out subsistence stores, while damaging water and sewage systems, homes and roads — affecting sources of food and livelihood. Multiple power outages that have been reported across the affected communities have resulted in the spoilage of the subsistence food gathered throughout the year to last through winter."
"Satellite Images Show a Dark Puerto Rico After Hurricane Fiona"
"Hurricane Fiona made landfall over Puerto Rico this past weekend, and the resulting widespread flooding and strong winds knocked out the grid for the island's more than 3 million residents. The outages are apparent from space. NASA satellite images of Puerto Rico this week show a significant difference between this week and earlier in the summer. The metro area in the Northeastern part of the island, which is where the capital city of San Juan is located, has had power restored, but communities around the central and southern parts of Puerto Rico remain in the dark."