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You, as a Vikings fan, might call it stone hands. Or butterfingers, on a different note. In the end, though, you might just say the Vikings got what they deserved.
But an NFL data scientist would paint a different picture of the 2023 Vikings: They have been extremely unlucky through a 2-4 start — easily the least lucky team in the NFL when four metrics are combined (and even, in many cases, when they are not).
It's sort of a fancy and intriguing way to quantify the concept of "Football Gods" that Star Tribune columnist Patrick Reusse — my guest on Monday's Daily Delivery podcast — so often talks about.
They certainly smiled on the Gophers on Saturday in their 12-10 win over Iowa, though an overturned punt return for a touchdown — an out of left field call that feels like it would have gone against the Gophers in 99% of all simulations, regardless of whether it was technically correct — would not make it into Tom Bliss' calculation of luck.
Bliss, an NFL data scientist, sorts luck into four quantifiable categories: interceptions dropped by an opponent; passes dropped by an opponent; field goals and extra points made or missed by an opponent; and fumble recoveries by either team.
The idea is that there are elements both random and out of a team's control in each, and the degree to which they work for or against a team — impacting their win probability along the way — gives you a good measure of their luck or lack thereof.
The Vikings this year, through six games? They astoundingly are dead last in win probability added in three of the four individual metrics: opponent dropped interceptions, opponent dropped passes and fumble recoveries. They're seventh-worst in opponent kicking.
Add it up and their win probability has decreased by 133.5% by the four luck factors through six games. The next-worst team is at 88.7%.
A fraction of this can be explained by a single play: An interception off the hands of T.J. Hockenson at the end of the Chargers game that was the biggest swing in win probability of any play this season in the NFL (and has helped the Chargers sit atop the luck standings at plus-166.5%).
But those other categories, particularly the Vikings losing a league-high nine fumbles, play major roles.
It should not surprise you to know that the Vikings were No. 5 in luck last season, their charmed 13-4 campaign.
They'll need to start getting some better luck — and making it — Monday against San Francisco.
Here are four more things to know today:
*A headline like "Packers face harsh reality of 2023 season after abysmal offensive showing" should make quite a few of you happy.
*The road team has won all six times in the ALCS. It's Texas at Houston in Game 7 tonight, if you want something to flip over to during Vikings/49ers breaks.
*Speaking of other options, if you don't like the regular broadcast of Monday Night Football you can check out the Manning Cast on ESPN2. I'll probably be watching that one.
*Star Tribune Wolves writer Chris Hine will join me on Tuesday's show to preview the Wolves season. Here's his recent piece on Rudy Gobert. The news we'll be watching: Will Jaden McDaniels get a contract extension before the end of today, the deadline for a deal getting done?
