Paul Douglas On Weather
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NASA Announces Summer 2023 Hottest on Record

"Summer of 2023 was Earth's hottest since global records began in 1880, according to scientists at NASA's Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS) in New York. The months of June, July, and August combined were 0.41 degrees Fahrenheit (0.23 degrees Celsius) warmer than any other summer in NASA's record, and 2.1 degrees F (1.2 C) warmer than the average summer between 1951 and 1980. August alone was 2.2 F (1.2 C) warmer than the average. June through August is considered meteorological summer in the Northern Hemisphere. This new record comes as exceptional heat swept across much of the world, exacerbating deadly wildfires in Canada and Hawaii, and searing heat waves in South America, Japan, Europe, and the U.S., while likely contributing to severe rainfall in Italy, Greece, and Central Europe. "Summer 2023's record-setting temperatures aren't just a set of numbers – they result in dire real-world consequences. From sweltering temperatures in Arizona and across the country, to wildfires across Canada, and extreme flooding in Europe and Asia, extreme weather is threatening lives and livelihoods around the world," said NASA Administrator Bill Nelson. "The impacts of climate change are a threat to our planet and future generations, threats that NASA and the Biden-Harris Administration are tackling head on."

See more from NOAA HERE:

5th Warmest Summer on Record at MSP

The average temperature in the Twin Cities this summer (June 1st - August 31st) was +2.8F above average and the 5th warmest summer on record at MSP. Note that last year (2022) was the 14th warmest summer on record and 2021 was the warmest summer on record at MSP!

7th Driest Summer on Record at MSP

Believe it or not, MSP only picked up 5.79" of rain this summer, which was -7.19" below average and good enough for the 7th driest summer on record at MSP. Last year it was the 10th driest on record.

6th Most 90F Days on Record at MSP

It has been a hot summer with (32) days with highs at 90F degrees or warmer. This is the 6th most number of 90F degree days on record, the most recent being 1988 when there were 44 days.

Number of 90F Days So Far This Year

Here's a list of all the 90F degree days that we've seen so far this year. The hottest days, were back to back on August 22nd and 23rd, when the MSP hit 98F and heat index values peaking around 110F to 120F around the metro. We also hit 98F on September 4th, but the dewpoint wasn't as high, so the heat index wasn't as intense. Uffda!

Average Number of 90F Days At MSP

Looking at the last 30 years, the average number of 90F days at the MSP Airport is (14). July is the hottest month with an average of (6) 90F days. This year we've had (23) 90F days, last year we had (18) days in the 90s and in 2021 there were (27) days in the 90s. The most number of 90F days in any single year was (44) set in 1988.

Fall Color Update

Here's a picture from the Don Del Greco and the MN DNR website from Maplewood State Park. There doesn't appear to be much leaf color quite yet, it won't be long now before peak fall color arrives in just a few short weeks.

Fall Color Update

According to the MN DNR, there is already a little fall color showing up across parts of the state. Note that peak color typically arrives along the International border around mid to late September. It could be a little later this year, but cooler nights ahead will help to get the fall colors underway.

Typical Peak Fall Color

According to the MN DNR, typical peak color arrives across the international border mid to late September with peak color arriving near the Twin Cities late September to mid October. It won't be long now and you'll be able to find your favorite fall color in a backyard near you.

Hurricane Nigel

  • Here's a look at Hurricane Nigel around the Tuesday 5pm EDT update from the NHC with 100mph sustained winds, which is considered a Category 2 storm. Hurricane Nigel is now the 6th hurricane of the season and the 10th named storm of the season. Here are a few other stats from Philip Klotzbach on Twitter:
    #Nigel has intensified into a #hurricane - the 5th hurricane to form in the Atlantic since August 26. This ties 2023 with 1955, 2004 and 2012 for the most Atlantic hurricanes on record to form between August 26 - September 18.
  • #Nigel has formed in the central tropical Atlantic - the 10th named storm to form in the Atlantic since August 20. That's the most named storms on record to form in the Atlantic between August 20 - September 16, breaking the old record of 9 named storms set in 2020

Tracking Nigel

The good news is that Nigel will be a "Fish Storm" and stay over open waters of the Atlantic. A cool front moving off of the East Coast will help to steer Nigel farther east and away from Bermuda. By this weekend, Nigel will approach the UK, Scotland and Ireland in the northeast Atlantic.

Atlantic Outlook

According to NOAA's NHC, the Atlantic basin is still quite active. There are 2 other waves that they are watching, one of the waves located off the Carolina Coast has a low probability of formation over the next 7 days and the other is in the eastern Atlantic, which has a high probability of formation.

Past Peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th, but did you know that the typical peak is September 10th? This is when the Atlantic Basin has had the most hurricanes and named storms since records began. This is also when weather conditions are at optimal levels for these types of storms.

90 Day Precipitation Anomaly

On average, the wettest time of the year is in the summer, with the months of June, July and August seeing nearly 13" of rain at the MSP Airport. If we take a look at the 90 day precipitation anomaly, which dates back to early to mid June, some locations are nearly -3.00" to nearly -7.00" below average (in red/pink). Note that some locations across southeastern Minnesota are nearly -8.00" to -10.00" below average.

Drought Update

Drought continues and expanded from last week with a little more than 1% of the state in an Exceptional drought. Nearly 19% of the state is now in an Extreme drought, while more than 60% of the state is in a Severe drought, which includes much of the Twin Cities metro. 3 months ago, 77% of the state was considered abnormally dry, with nearly 19% in a moderate drought, so things have certainly gotten much worse since then.

Extended Rainfall Outlook

Well it's looking increasingly more likely that we'll get some substantial rainfall somewhere across the Upper Midwest, including parts of Minnesota. According to NOAA's WPC, there could be some 1" to 2" (or more) tallies across Minnesota through next weekend. It's not set in stone yet, but we could really use the rain! Stay tuned...

Weather Outlook For Wednesday

The weather outlook on Wednesday shows temps warming into the 70s and 80s across much of the state, which will be nearly +10F to +15F above average for mid-September. A few locations and especially those optimistic bank thermometers could sneak up close to that 90F mark!

Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Wednesday

The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Wednesday, September 20th will be dry and quiet with temps warming into the upper mid 80s, which will be nearly +15F above average for this time of the year. There will be a mix of sun and clouds, but skies will remain dry and sunny.

Meteograms For Minneapolis

Weather conditions for Minneapolis on Wednesday will be warm and dry throughout the day. Temps will start around 60F in the morning (average overnight low is 53F) and will warm into the mid 80s by the afternoon (average daytime high is 71F). Skies will remain dry with breezy southerly winds around 15mph.

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

The 5 day temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows above average temperatures continuing through the rest of the week. The warmest days will arrive Wednesday and Thursday as we bump up into the low/mid 80s, which will be nearly +10F to +15F above average for this time of the year. Readings will fall back down into the 70s as we approach the weekend, but we'll still be slightly above average this weekend with highs in the low/mid 70s.

A Bit Sticky This Week?

The max dewpoint forecast for Minneapolis shows dewpoint readings warming into the low/mid 60s over the next few days, which will be a little more humid or summerlike, especially for this time of the year.

Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

The 7 day extended weather outlook through mid month shows warmer than average temperatures through the rest of the week. It'll be mostly dry until the end when a slow moving storm system rolls into town. This storm could bring a better chance of a soaking rain to parts of the state. Not great timing, but we'll take the rain!

A Slight Temperature Bump Next Week

According to NOAA's National Blend of Models, temperatures through the rest of the week will continue to run above average with readings in the upper 70s and low/mid 80s. The warmest day will be Wednesday with highs around 85F in the Twin Cities. It doesn't appear to last too long as readings fall back into the low/mid 70s by the weekend and through the last full week of September.

Weather Outlook

The weather outlook in the Midwest through next weekend will become more unsettled, especially late week and into the weekend as a slow-moving storm system blows into town. Prior to that, it'll be warm and dry through midweek. The weekend will trend wetter and cooler as the storm system drifts overhead.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows Warmer than average temperatures across much of the nation and especially across the Midwest late month and early October. It'll be a little cooler across the West Coast.

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, more active weather will develop across parts of the Western US and could possibly spill into parts of the Midwest. Meanwhile, it'll be drier from the Great Lakes to the Texas Gulf Coast.

Warm Summer Ripens Into A Lukewarm Fall
By Paul Douglas

Odds favor a super-sized summer season this year with 70s and a few 80s extending into October. Winter hasn't been canceled, but it will probably be postponed. One of the few silver linings to a warming climate, coupled with a raging El Nino in the Pacific.

According to Praedictix meteorologist DJ Kayser, the 32 days at/above 90F in the metro ties for the 6th most on record. Meteorological Summer (June 1 to September 1) was 2.8F warmer than average; the 5thwarmest on record. A rainfall deficit of 7.19" made it the 7th driest since 1871.

The weekend is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma. Weather models keep flip-flopping on rainfall amounts. Many of us will pick up .25 to .5" with a few 1"+ amounts over far southern Minnesota.

Temperatures into Friday will be more typical of early August than late September with 80s, maybe a few 90-degree highs south and west of MSP today. Plenty warm, with less humidity and fewer bugs.

This is why September is the most under-rated month of the year.

Extended Forecast

WEDNESDAY: Warm sunshine. Winds: SE 10-20. High 85.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of t-showers. Winds: S 10. Low: 62.

THURSDAY: Sunny, breezy and warm. Winds: SE 10-20. High 83.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny, still lukewarm. Winds: SE 10-20. Wake-up: 60. High 80.

SATURDAY: A few T-storms in the area. Winds: E 10-20. Wake-up: 61. High: 76.

SUNDAY: More numerous showers, T-storms. Winds: NE 10-20. Wake-up: 59. High: 70.

MONDAY: Showers and T-storms linger. Winds: NE 10-20. Wake-up: 57. High: 69.

TUESDAY: Drier with partial clearing. Winds: NW 8-13. Wake-up: 56. High: 72.

This Day in Weather History

September 20th

2001: 3/4 to 1 3/4 inch hail falls in Freeborn and Faribault counties.

1972: A downpour in Duluth produces 5 1/2 inches in ten hours.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

September 20th

Average High: 71F (Record: 92F set in 2022)

Average Low: 53F (Record: 28F set in 1962)

Record Rainfall: 3.28" set in 2018

Record Snowfall: Trace set in 1927

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

September 20th

Sunrise: 6:57am

Sunset: 7:15pm

Hours of Daylight: ~12 hours & 17 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: 3 Minutes & 6 Seconds

Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 21st): ~ 3 Hour & 20 Minutes

Moon Phase for September 20th at Midnight

1.5 Days Before First Quarter Moon

National High Temps on Wednesday

Temperatures on Wednesday will be fairly mild across the middle part of the country with temps warming into the 80s and 90s, which will be above average for this time of the year. Folks along the West Coast will actually be a little cooler as a storm system begins moving into the Pacific Northwest.

National Weather Wednesday

The weather outlook on Wednesday shows more unsettled weather moving into the Pacific northwest with areas of rain and thunder. Note that some in the high elevations of the northern Rockies could even see areas of snow mixing in at times. Farther east, spotty showers and storms will begin moving into the Midwest and will eventually become more widespread as we approach the weekend.

National Weather Outlook

The weather outlook through Thursday turns more unsettled across the Northwest as a storm system moves in. This will be responsible for widespread areas of rain and thunder with high elevation snow mixing in as well. The storm will slowly push east and will bring soaking rains to parts of the Midwest as we approach the weekend.

Extended Precipitation Outlook

The extended precipitation outlook shows areas of heavy rainfall across the East Coast as an area of low pressure develops and slides north. We'll also see some heavier precipitation potential in the coastal areas of the Pacific Northwest and across the Central US as we head into the weekend ahead.

Climate Stories

Sunlight streaming through fog wins Weather Photographer competition

The Royal Meteorological Society has announced the 2021 winners of its popular annual Weather Photographer of the Year competition. Giulio Montini's spectacular photo Morning Fog, taken on an opaque autumn day from a small church on a hilltop in the town of Airuno, Italy, took top prize. The photograph was one of many entries that celebrated the beauty of weather. Of a shortlist of 21 images chosen from over 8,900 photos taken by more than 3,300 photographers from 114 countries, Morning Fog was chosen as the overall winner by an esteemed international panel of judges. The Royal Meteorological Society is the UK's Professional and Learned Society for weather and climate. Working to strengthen the science and raise awareness of the importance of weather and climate, support meteorological professionals and inspire enthusiasts.

See more from Science Focus HERE:

"How ISS Astronauts Take Incredible Photos Of Lightning From Space"

"Here on Earth, we're used to one primary view of thunderstorms: from the ground, looking up. You might also have seen footage of storms from various points in Earth's atmosphere, showing how water builds up into clouds and generates thunder and lightning. You sometimes see footage of large hurricanes captured by Earth-monitoring satellites from the very high orbits where they operate. But a very small number of people experience a totally different view of thunderstorms: the astronauts on board the International Space Station (ISS). The ISS orbits around 250 miles above the Earth's surface, far above the clouds but below the 310 to 370 mile region where most Earth-observation satellites orbit. That gives the astronauts staying on the station a unique view of weather conditions on Earth, especially when it comes to large thunderstorms, which can be seen from high above."

See more from Slash Gear HERE:

"'It's an emergency.' Midwest towns scramble as drought threatens drinking water."

"After more than a year of drought, some heartland towns are searching for new sources of drinking water and restricting usage. James Rainbolt typically can tackle most problems at his rural water plant with some extra time or money. But he can't fix this. "I just can't make it rain," he said. Like others across southeast Kansas, Rainbolt remains helpless as he watches a persistent drought dry up the local water supply. He runs a public wholesale water supply district that provides the drinking water for several cities and rural water districts. The lack of rain has been so severe that it's now threatening the water district's intake pipe, which brings water from a local lake to the treatment plant. As lake levels fall, the angle at which the 8-inch pipe meets a floating pump station grows steeper and steeper, stressing the flexible joint. If the joint breaks, the consequences would be catastrophic, instantly cutting the water supply for thousands of people, businesses and schools across three counties."

See more from Kansas Reflector HERE:

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