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In an era of disruption pertaining to how we watch sports on TV, perhaps the past few months will best be remembered as the calm before the storm.
Diamond Sports entered bankruptcy just before the start of the MLB season and has so far relinquished rights to two teams — the Diamondbacks and Padres — but more than anything we have seen that the court process can be a bit tedious.
More major changes, though, await in the coming months. To help get a handle on what's ahead, I was joined on Thursday's Daily Delivery podcast by The Streamable founder Jason Gurwin.
He's been following industry trends for years and identified five particular things that bear watching:
- What's next for the Twins? We learned a month ago that the Twins would be staying on Diamond Sports-owned Bally Sports North through the end of this season. But that 12-year contract expires after this season.
Gurwin said Bally Sports North is "a success story" for Diamond Sports and that the beleaguered company could be incentivized to strike a deal to extend its contract with the Twins to ensure a robust 12-month calendar of programming along with the Wolves and Wild.
But any new Twins deal in 2024 — whether to stay on Bally Sports North or a switch to being run by MLB — will need to include a direct-to-consumer option for those who don't subscribe to a bundled cable or satellite package.
2. What about the rest of MLB? Gurwin said "what has kind of surprised some people is that less has happened rather than more" this summer with baseball on Bally Sports channels, but he predicted that is going to change.
"I think Bally is going to walk away from a lot of these (MLB) contracts," Gurwin said, which presumably would leave MLB to take over production and distribution for those teams as they have already done for the Diamondbacks and Padres.
In those markets, games are being shown over traditional cable and satellite providers — though Gurwin said MLB will need to negotiate carriage agreements in the future — as well as via a $19.99 a month direct-to-consumer streaming option.
3. What is the future of Diamond Sports? That is perhaps the biggest question of all, particularly as bankruptcy proceedings continue and the company "hasn't really presented what I would describe as a go-forward plan," Gurwin said.
Diamond has to negotiate new carriage agreements this fall with both DirecTV and Comcast. DirecTV has already filed a statement in the bankruptcy proceedings telling Diamond Sports that it shouldn't assume it will be able to negotiate a new deal.
Losing DirecTV and its roughly 12 million subscribers and/or Comcast would be a "death spiral" for Diamond Sports, Gurwin said. Complicating matters is how to factor in pricing if Diamond Sports continues to drop more of its underperforming MLB contracts.
But Gurwin also noted that those satellite and cable giants also need Diamond Sports — or at least the regional sports programming they currently offer — to differentiate themselves from other satellite and streaming options that don't carry those channels.
Regardless, leagues and teams will be watching those negotiations closely.
4. That's the ticket. One thing we do know: YouTube won the rights to NFL Sunday Ticket and Red Zone — a longtime DirecTV property — and has priced plans (with a current discount) between $299 and $439 depending on the package and subscriber status.
That's a major shift that makes the service — which offers viewers every out-of-market NFL Sunday game — available to a wide streaming audience.
Gurwin noted one subtle reminder, though, for those used to subscribing via DirecTV: latency. That refers to the broadcast delay on streaming, which is typically several seconds behind the feed sent to cable and satellite and can create major spoilers for those following along with group chats and on social media.
5. NBA and NHL impact. I asked Gurwin to peer into his crystal ball (note: he does not have a real crystal ball that I know of) and he said we should start paying attention to the NBA and NHL now that those seasons are just a couple months from starting up.
"The NBA and NHL rely on regional deals — the NHL in particular because they're such a big part of the way they make money from their media contracts," Gurwin said. "So I wouldn't be surprised if, if they try to find a way to make this work with Bally Sports."
But he also highlighted that the NBA's national media rights deals expire after the 2024-25 season and there have been rumblings that the league might try to align regional and national rights into one big bundle.
