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Excessive Heat Concerns on Tuesday & Wednesday
The National Weather Service has issued Excessive Heat Alerts for Tuesday and Wednesday due to heat index values that could be as high as 105F. IMPACTS...Extreme heat and humidity will significantly increase the potential for heat related illnesses, particularly for those working or participating in outdoor activities.
Dangerous Heat on Tuesday & Wednesday
Below is chart of forecast highs and maximum heat index values for a number of select cites across the region. Some spots could see heat index values above 100F, including the Twin Cities.
Severe Threat Tuesday
According to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, there is a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms across parts of the southern half of the state late in the day Tuesday. Some of the storms could produce large hail and gusty winds if they can get going.
Severe Threat on Wednesday
There is also a severe risk on Wednesday from near Central Minnesota into parts of central and southern Wisconsin. A few of these storms could be strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds as the primary threat. There could also be heavy rainfall, where some of the stronger storms develop.
Simulated Radar 7AM Tuesday to 7AM Wednesday
Here's the HRRR Simulated Radar from 7AM Tuesday to 7AM Wednesday. Tuesday will be a hot & sticky day with scattered showers and storms possibly developing later in the day, some of which could be strong to severe with pockets of heavy rainfall.
Precipitation Potential Through AM Thursday
Here's the rainfall potential through AM Thursday, which shows the heaviest rainfall along and east of the Mississippi. Some of the rainfall amounts could approach 1" to 2" or more.
Minnesota Drought Update
According to the US Drought Monitor, nearly 20% of the state is now considered to be in an Extreme Drought, which is up from the 4% last week. Keep in mind that this is the first time any part of MN has seen Extreme Drought since April of 2013. 72% of the state is in a Severe Drought, which is up from the nearly 52% from late week. Moderate drought covers much of the Twin cities.
Precipitation Departure From Average Since Jan. 1st
It has been a warm and dry year so far with precipitation running well below average across much of the region. Here's the precipitation from average since January 1st, which shows several locations running several inches below average. The Twin Cities is -5.44" below average precipitation since the beginning of the year, which is the 27th driest start to any year on record. Milwaukee is nearly -9.30" below average, which is the 3rd driest start to any year on record.
Tuesday Weather Outlook
The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Tuesday shows hot weather conditions in place through much of the day. Note that the MSP Airport has seen (20) 90F days so far this year, so Tuesday's high of 94F will make it the 21st day with highs in the 90s so far this year. The average number of 90F days at MSP is generally around 13, last year we had 12.
Hot & Humid Tuesday Ahead
Air temperatures will warm into the low/mid 90s on Tuesday with sticky dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s. With that being said, feels like temps will warm into the upper 90s to near 100F.
Minneapolis Meteograms
The meteograms for Minneapolis on Tuesday show temps warming from the low/mid 70F in the morning to the low/mid 90s by the afternoon. Much of the day will be dry, but there could be a few late day showers and storms. Southerly winds will be a bit gusty at times.
Regional Weather Outlook for Tuesday
The weather outlook across the region on Tuesday shows hot and humid weather in place across much of the region. Note that temps will warm into the upper 80s and low/mid 90s, which will be nearly +5F to +10F above average. Temps across the Dakotas could warm into the low 100s, which will be nearly +15F to +20F above average. There could be a few showers and storms late in the day across parts of the region.
Extended Weather Outlook for Minneapolis
The extended weather outlook for Minneapolis shows a string of very warm days as we head through the rest of the last full week of July. Highs will warm into the 90s through Wednesday, which will be nearly +10F to +15F above average for mid/late July. Note that temps will fall into the 80s on Thursday and will likely remain there through the weekend and into next week.
Weather Outlook Through Early Next Week
Here's the extended weather outlook through the end of the week shows areas of showers and storms developing in a few spots over the next few days. Most of this activity will be late in the day and into the overnight hours. Some of the storms could be strong to severe with locally heavy rains.
Regional Rainfall Potential Through 7PM Wednesday
Here's the rainfall potential through 7PM Wednesday across the Midwest, which shows better rain chances across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley. This rain will be from thunderstorms developing on the outer periphery of the dome of very hot and humid weather setting up across much of the Central US.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows warmer than average temps continuing across much of the Central US, including the Upper Midwest.
The Tokyo Olympics Are Heating Up Too
By Paul Douglas
We've been watching the Extreme Weather Olympics for some time now. More people are catching on that weather disruption might not be a fluke, but a trend. Every week I see something on the maps I haven't seen before.
Without delving into the head-scratching reasons why it's called the 2020 Olympics, athletes in Tokyo are feeling the effects of warming summers. Daytime highs have been reaching the 90s, with a heat index close to 100F.
Climate scientists point out Tokyo temperatures in July and August are 5.1F warmer, on average, than the last time Tokyo hosted the games in 1964. On average there are 8 more days of 95-degree weather.
Today should be thunder-free, with less running and screaming (much smaller severe storm risk). Wednesday will be the rough equivalent of being locked up inside a sauna with upper 90s and a few strong T-storms in the area.
While the USA sizzles, a couple volleys of Canadian air cool us into the 80s later this week and next. 2021: the summer 80s were called "cool fronts".
Extended Forecast
TUESDAY: Hot sunshine. Winds: S 7-12. High: 93.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of thunder. Winds: ENE 5. Low: 74.
WEDNESDAY: Even hotter, few T-storms nearby. Winds: SW 10-15. High: 97.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny, breezy and "cooler". Winds: N 10-20. Wake-up: 72. High: 88.
FRIDAY: Warm sunshine, not as humid. Winds: NE 5-10. Wake-up: 68. High: 87.
SATURDAY: Blue sky, still pleasant. Winds: NW 7-12. Wake-up: 67. High: 86.
SUNDAY: A few more clouds, "average" temps. Winds: NW 7-12. Wake-up: 65. High: 83.
MONDAY: Mix of clouds and sun, comfortable. Winds: N 7-12. Wake-up: 63. High: 81.
This Day in Weather History
July 27th
1910: Giant hailstones fall in Todd and Wadena Counties. One stone weighed in at 5 pounds.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
July 27th
Average High: 83F (Record: 104F set in 1931)
Average Low: 64F (Record: 49F set in 1971)
Record Rainfall: 6.35" set in 1892
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
July 27th
Sunrise: 5:53am
Sunset: 8:45pm
Hours of Daylight: ~14 hours & 52 minutes
Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 2 minute & 12 seconds
Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 20th): ~45 Minutes
Moon Phase for July 27th at Midnight
4.2 Days After Full "Buck" Moon
"July 23: Full Buck Moon 9:37PM - When the new antlers of buck deer push out from their foreheads in coatings of velvety fur. It was also often called the Full Thunder Moon, thunderstorms being now most frequent. Sometimes this is also called the Full Hay Moon."
What's in the Night Sky?
"The full moon, Jupiter, Saturn ... what could be better? Watch as they light the night from dusk until dawn on July 23 to 26, 2021."
National High Temps Tuesday
The weather outlook on Tuesday shows hot temps in place across much of the Midwest, where temps will be nearly +5F to +15F above average. Most locations around the country will be at or above average with the exception of the Desert Southwest, where monsoon storms will be possible.
National Weather Outlook
The national weather outlook through the midweek time frame shows scattered showers and storms possible from the Intermountain Wester and across parts of the Midwest with locally heavy pockets of rain.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center areas of heavy rainfall will be possible in the Intermountain West to the Upper Midwest and across parts of the Southeast. Some of the rain could be locally heavy with localized flood concerns.
Climate Stories
"Extreme weather renews focus on climate change as scientists update forecasts"
"As scientists gather online to finalize a long-awaited update on global climate research, recent extreme weather events across the globe highlight the need for more research on how it will play out, especially locally. The list of extremes in just the last few weeks has been startling: Unprecedented rains followed by deadly flooding in central China and Europe. Temperatures of 120 Fahrenheit (49 Celsius) in Canada, and tropical heat in Finland and Ireland. The Siberian tundra ablaze. Monstrous U.S. wildfires, along with record drought across the U.S. West and parts of Brazil. "Global warming was well projected, but now you see it with your own eyes," said Corinne Le Quere, a climate scientist at the University of East Anglia. Scientists had long predicted such extremes were likely. But many are surprised by so many happening so fast – with the global atmosphere 1.2 degrees Celsius warmer than the preindustrial average. The Paris Agreement on climate change calls for keeping warming to within 1.5 degrees. "It's not so much that climate change itself is proceeding faster than expected — the warming is right in line with model predictions from decades ago," said climate scientist Michael Mann of Pennsylvania State University. "Rather, it's the fact that some of the impacts are greater than scientists predicted."
"CLIMATE CHANGE HAS AFFECTED OUR BODY SIZE FOR THE LAST MILLION YEARS, SAYS NEW STUDY"
"Climate is a main driver of changes in body size, according to new research performed jointly by teams of researchers with the University of Cambridge and the University of Tübingen in Germany. "We can see from people living today that those in warmer climates tend to be smaller, and those living in colder climates tend to be bigger. We now know that the same climatic influences have been at work for the last million years," said Professor Andrea Manica, a researcher in the University of Cambridge's Department of Zoology who led the study. To determine the correlation between climate and body size, researchers relied on two sets of data: measurements of body and brain size from over 300 fossils from the genus Homo, as well as a reconstruction of the world's regional climates over the last million years. In comparing the two, they have pinpointed the specific climate each fossil experienced when it was living. "Our study indicates that climate – particularly temperature – has been the main driver of changes in body size for the past million years," Manica said."
See more from The Debrief Here:
"ROCKET LAUNCHES ARE SHOCKINGLY BAD FOR THE ENVIRONMENT"
"The billionaire space race is well on its way, setting the stage for a burgeoning space tourism industry. More civilian space tourists are making their way into space than ever before — a trend likely to grow substantially as the sector advances. At the same time, widespread rocket launches also appear to come with a considerable cost to the environment, The Guardian reports. Rockets burn monstrous amounts of fuel to escape the Earth's gravity, a hefty price to pay for Virgin CEO Richard Branson to experience four fleeting minutes of weightlessness. More people than ever before are also starting to hold billionaires responsible for taking day trips to space instead of using their considerable resources to fight Earth's many environmental crises instead."
