Paul Douglas On Weather
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Cool & Quiet Weekend Ahead

Here's the weather outlook from AM Saturday to AM Monday, which shows fairly quiet weather to start the week. There could be a few showers Tuesday and Wednesday as a storms system slides through the Midwest. It also looks like there will be thunderstorms possible later in the week as a warm front lifts north.

Precipitation Potential Through Next Week

Here's the extended precipitation outlook through next weekend, which shows fairly decent rain amounts across the region coming in 2 different waves. The first will come through midweek and the second will move through late week and during the weekend ahead. Some spots could see 1" to 2" of rain especially across the southeastern part of the state.

Precipitation So Far This May

It's been a wet May so far with several locations seeing several inches of rain already. St. Cloud is has had nearly 6" of rain this month, which is the 3rd wettest start to any May on record.

Precipitation Since January 1st

The last several weeks have been quite active across the Midwest and precipitation amounts have been fairly appreciative in some locations. Note that the Twin Cities has seen nearly 10.60" of liquid so far this year, which is the 25th wettest start to any year on record in the Twin Cities. St. Cloud is the 8th wettest start to any year on record.

Precipitation Departure From Average Since January 1st

Minnesota Drought Update

Thanks to above average precipitation so far this year, we've wiped out much of the drought that was in place to start the year. In fact, as of early January, nearly 10% of the state in northern Minnesota was considered in a severe drought. Now, only 3% of the state is considered to be abnormally dry.

Status of Spring

"May 18, 2022 - Spring leaf out has now arrived at all but the highest elevation locations in the West. Our spring leaf anomaly compares the arrival of spring leaf out this year to a long-term average of 1991-2020. In the East, spring leaf out is patchy this year, arriving days to weeks late across much of the Southeast and upper Midwest, and arriving days to weeks early across the southern part of the Midwest, the Southern Appalachians, the mid-Atlantic, and the Northeast. In western states, spring leaf out is also patchy, arriving a week late in some locations and over a month early in others. Parts of Montana and South Dakota are 2-3 weeks early. Spring bloom is also spreading north, arriving days to a week late in Texas and Florida and days to several weeks early in California. Spring bloom is over a week early in parts of Georgia, the Carolinas, and Virginia. The mid-Atlantic is patchy, several days early in some locations and several days late in others. The southern part of the Midwest is several days to a week late."

See more from NPN HERE:

Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Monday

The weather outlook for Minneapolis on Monday looks fairly quiet with a mix of sun and clouds. Temperatures will warm into the mid 60s, which will still be nearly -5F to -10F below average. Winds won't be as strong as they were last weekend, but at least it'll be a little warmer.

Meteograms for Minneapolis

The hourly temps for Minneapolis on Monday shows temperatures starting in the mid 40s in the morning and warming in mid 60s by the afternoon. Skies will be sunnier in the morning and will be cloudier in the afternoon. Southerly winds will be near 10mph to 15mph.

Weather Outlook on Monday

Temps around the region on Monday will warm into the 60s which will be nearly -5F to -10F below average. There is a chance of showers and a few storms across the southern and southwestern part of the state.

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows temps running well below average through the first half of the week. Highs will be nearly -5F to -10F below average, but will gradually warm through the week ahead.

Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended weather outlook over the next 7 days shows lingering chilly temps in place over the next few days. Soggier skies will take hold midweek with warmer temps in place by the end of the week and weekend ahead.

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

According to the ECMWF & GFS extended temperature outlook, temps will be quite chilly through the weekend and early next week. Readings will gradually warm into next week, but it appears we'll be cooler than average.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows above average temps across the eastern two-thirds of the nation. Meanwhile, folks in the Northwestern US will be cooler than average.

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows a better chance of active weather across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Region by the end of the month.

Some Painful Lessons About May Sunburn
By Paul Douglas

"Paulie D. Why didn't you warn me? 50s over the weekend and I still got a bad sunburn. How is that possible?" Forgive me, I thought you had commonsense. My bad. Sunburn potential has nothing to do with air temperature and everything to do with sun angle, now as high in the sky as it is in mid-July. Life is a steep learning curve.

I was relieved not to be tracking beachball-size hail on my Doppler over the weekend, one of the few benefits of a (much)cooler front. International Falls saw flurries on Saturday, by the way. A shriek-worthy nugget.

Winds ease and temperatures mellow this week. The only chance of widespread rain comes Wednesday, from a storm tracking toward Chicago. Have a Plan B for midweek, but things still look fairly promising for the holiday weekend with 70s - if the sun stays out for a few hours Saturday and Sunday temperatures may surge past 80F. We cool off a bit next week - no sign of any extended or prolonged heat in your zip code. Much of America is sizzling. We'll get our turn.

Extended Forecast

MONDAY: Partly sunny, less wind. Winds: S 5-10. High: 65.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy, isolated shower. Winds: SSE 5-10. Low: 52.

TUESDAY: Clouds increase, still dry. Winds: SE 7-12. High: 66.

WEDNESDAY: Rain likely. Cool and damp. Winds: NE 8-13. Wake-up: 52. High: 57.

THURSDAY: Sunny breaks, drying out. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 47. High: 68.

FRIDAY: Sunny and spectacular. Winds: W 5-10. Wake-up: 53. High: 79.

SATURDAY: Early thunder, then warm sunshine. Winds: W 5-10. Wake-up: 57. High: 80.

SUNDAY: Morning T-storms, some PM sunshine. Winds: W 10-20. Wake-up: 63. High: 81.

This Day in Weather History

May 23rd

1914: An early heat wave hits the state, with a high of 103 at Tracy.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

May 23rd

Average High: 72F (Record: 89F set in 2012)

Average Low: 53F (Record: 28F set in 1963)

Record Rainfall: 1.56" set in 1975

Record Snowfall: None

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

May 21st

Sunrise: 5:35am

Sunset: 8:43pm

Hours of Daylight: ~15 hours & 7 minutes

Daylight GAINED since yesterday: ~ 1 minute & 55 seconds

Daylight GAINED since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 6 Hour & 21 Minutes

Moon Phase for May 23rd at Midnight

1.5 Days After Last Quarter Moon

See more from HERE:

National High Temps Monday

The weather outlook on Monday shows below average temps across much of the nation.

National Weather Outlook

Here's the national weather outlook through early next week. Unsettled weather will be in place across the central and southern US with areas of heavy rain and a few strong storms.

Extended Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, areas of heavier precipitation will be found across parts of the central and southern US.

Climate Stories

"A meteor shower outburst from a shattered comet may spawn new tau Herculids display on May 30"

"New for 2022, the tau Herculid meteor shower may make an appearance on the night of May 30-31. Sometimes, astronomy can be full of surprises. Take the case of a tiny comet, normally far too faint to be seen without the help of a telescope. But in 1995, it suddenly and quite unexpectedly brightened up to become dimly visible with the naked eye. Come the end of May, things could turn exciting, thanks again to this same tiny comet. On that night, a new meteor shower — the tau Herculids — might erupt, perhaps ranking with the best of the annual meteor displays. Yet, there is also a small chance of something extraordinary — perhaps one of the most dramatic meteor displays since the spectacular Leonid meteor showers of more than 20 years ago."

See more from HERE:

"The sun as you've never seen it before"

"Powerful flares, breathtaking views across the solar poles, and a curious solar "hedgehog" are among the haul of spectacular images, movies and data returned by Solar Orbiter from its first close approach to the sun. Although the analysis of the new dataset has only just started, it is already clear that the ESA-led mission is providing the most extraordinary insights into the sun's magnetic behavior and the way this shapes space weather. Solar Orbiter's closest approach to the sun, known as perihelion, took place on 26 March. The spacecraft was inside the orbit of Mercury, at about one-third the distance from the sun to the Earth, and its heatshield was reaching around 500°C. But it dissipated that heat with its innovative technology to keep the spacecraft safe and functioning."

See more from HERE:

"Grim 2022 drought outlook for Western US offers warnings for the future as climate change brings a hotter, thirstier atmosphere"

"Much of the western U.S. has been in the grip of an unrelenting drought since early 2020. The dryness has coincided with record-breaking wildfires, intense and long-lasting heat waves, low stream flows and dwindling water supplies in reservoirs that millions of people across the region rely on. Heading into summer, the outlook is pretty grim. The National Weather Service's latest seasonal outlook, issued May 19, 2022, described drought persisting across most of the West and parts of the Great Plains. One driver of the Western drought has been persistent La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific since the summer of 2020. During La Niña, cooler tropical Pacific waters help nudge the jet stream northward. That tends to bring fewer storms to the southern tier of the U.S. and produce pronounced drought impacts in the Southwest."

See more from The Conversation HERE:

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