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Mostly Dry Next Several Days
Friday was a fairly soggy day for folks north and east of the Twin Cities metro. There could be a few lingering showers again on Saturday north and east of the metro, but the next several days look dry as a bubble of high pressure settles in.
Fall-Like Dewpoints This Week
Here's the max dewpoint forecast over the next several days. Note that it'll be quite comfortable through the weekend, but even drier, more fall-like readings will settle in as we head into next week.
Windy Sunday Ahead
Looking ahead into Sunday, get ready for some wind! West to northwesterly winds could gust up to 20mph-40mph during the day.
Tropical Depression Nine Developed on Friday
On Friday, Tropical Depression Nine developed in the Caribbean. According to the National Hurricane Center, this system will drift northwest through the weekend as it approaches Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, where tropical alerts have been issued. Gusty winds and heavy rainfall will be likely in those areas.
TD Nine Morphs Into Hurricane Ian
Here's the forecast track for that system as it morphs into our ninth name storm of the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Note that this storm could become Hurricane Ian by Monday and possibly even a major hurricane as it approaches the west coast of Florida by Wednesday. Stay tuned!
Very Active Atlantic Basin
As of PM Friday, there were 3 named storms in the Atlantic Basin with Hurricane Fiona, Tropical Storm Gaston and Tropical Storm Hermine. Fiona will slam into eastern Canada this weekend with hurricane-force winds, heavy rainfall and life-threatening surf and rip currents.
Top 20 Warmest Days of 2022 at MSP
Here are the top 20 warmest days of 2022 at MSP. Note that there have been 18 days at 90F or warmer. The warmest day was June 20th at 101F, but also note that we hit 92F on September 20th, which is tied for the 9th warmest day of the year.
Fall Color Update
It's that time of the year again for fall colors and the MN DNR has their fall color finder up and running. Much of the state is still color free, but there are a few colors popping up here and there.
Average Fall Color
The MN DNR has put together a nice graphic that shows typical dates for peak fall color. The northern par of the state starts to peak during the 2nd half of September into early October. Meanwhile, folks in the central part of the state and into the metro typically don't see peak color until the end of September into the middle part of October. It won't be long now - enjoy!
Average First Frost For MSP
Here's the 30 year average for the first frost in Minneapolis, which lands on October 13th. Last year (2021) the first frost was on October 23rd. If you look at the full MSP record, which dates back to 1873, the latest frost was November 18th back in 2016, while the earliest frost was September 3rd back in 1974.
First Measurable Snow at MSP
Here's the average first measurable snowfall (0.01") at MSP over the last 30 years, which lands on November 6th. Last year, MSP had its first measurable snow on November 13th. The last was on December 3rd back in 1928, while the earliest was September 24th in 1985.
Minnesota Drought Update
Here's the latest drought update across Minnesota. As of September 20th, we still have a sliver of moderate and severe drought conditions stretching from the Twin Cities Metro to the Minnesota River Valley.
Weather Outlook on Saturday
The weather outlook on Saturday will be a little drier across the Upper Midwest, but there will be a few lingering showers mainly north and east of the Twin Cities. Temps will hover in the 50s and 60s across much of the state, but a few low 70s can't be ruled south and west, where a little more sunshine will be found.
Weather Outlook Saturday
The weather outlook for Minneapolis on Saturday shows the potential for a few shower early in the day. Temps will warm into the mid/upper 60s, which will be just slightly below average for late September.
Meteograms for Minneapolis
The hourly forecast for Minneapolis on Saturday shows temps starting in the low/mid 50s in the morning and warming into the mid/upper 60s by the afternoon. There could be a few lingering showers early in the day and an isolated spit or two in the afternoon, but much of the day will be dry. Winds will turn more west-northwesterly
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis through early next week shows at or below average temperature continuing. Reading will be closer to average this weekend, but will turn even cooler through the last full week of September.
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended weather outlook over the next 7 days shows temperature running at or below average levels through much of the week ahead. The coolest day will be Tuesday as highs struggle to get to 60F. Note that overnight lows will dip into the 40s. Frost and freeze concerns may be possible across the northern half of the state Tuesday and Wednesday morning.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
According to the ECMWF & NBM models, the extended temperature outlook shows fall-like temperature readings continuing through the end of the month. However, the first few days of October could warm into the 70s, which would be above average for early October.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows above average temps continuing across much of the nation and especially across the Midwest and Plains.
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows dry weather in place from the Great Lakes to the Southern US
Fiona, Gaston, Hermine and Ian. Oh my!
By Todd Nelson
According to NOAA's National Hurricane Center, the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season is September 10th. We're only 2 weeks past peak and this is the busiest the basin has been all season. As of Friday, we were tracking Hurricane Fiona, Tropical Storm Gaston and newly formed Tropical Depression Nine.
Fiona was a devastating category 4 storm that brought flooding rains to parts of the Caribbean and Bermuda earlier this week. Fiona will be an historic storm as it slams into eastern Canada this weekend with possibly the lowest pressure ever recorded.
Meanwhile, Tropical Depression Nine morphs into Hurricane Ian and is on track to make landfall in Florida next week. Stay tuned!
Closer to home, lawns and gardens got a gentle soak yesterday, but not enough to end the drought across the metro. A few PM spits will be possible today, but much of the weekend will be dry with a refreshing breeze. Sweater weather returns next week as temps dip into the 40s overnight. Fall is here! I'll have another Pumpkin Spice Latte, please.
Extended Forecast
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. A few spits. Winds: NNW 10-20. High: 68.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Decreasing clouds. Winds: NNW 5-10. Low: 54.
SUNDAY: Sun returns. Gusty NW winds. Winds: NW 15-30. High: 68.
MONDAY: Brisk sunshine. Not as windy. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 49. High: 62.
TUESDAY: Sunny skies. Sweater weather. Winds: NNE 5-10. Wake-up: 43. High: 59.
WEDNESDAY: Pumpkin Spice Latte Kind of Day? Winds: SSE 8-13. Wake-up: 42. High: 64.
THURSDAY: Breezy south wind. Bright blue sky. Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up: 46. High: 69.
FRIDAY: Another dry & frivolous fall day. Winds: SSW 10-20. Wake-up: 50. High: 71.
This Day in Weather History
September 24th
1985: 0.4 inches of snow falls in the Minneapolis area.
1982: Tropical air moves north into Minnesota. The Twin Cities have a low of 71.
1869: Heavy rain dumps nearly 10 inches on the White Earth Reservation.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
September 24th
Average High: 70F (Record: 90F set in 12017)
Average Low: 51F (Record: 30F set in 1942)
Record Rainfall: 1.06" set in 1934
Record Snowfall: 0.4" set in 1985
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
September 24th
Sunrise: 7:02am
Sunset: 7:06pm
Hours of Daylight: ~12 hours & 4 minutes
Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 3 minutes & 6 seconds
Daylight LOST since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 3 hour & 34 minutes
Moon Phase for September 24th at Midnight
0.6 Days Before New Moon
National High Temps Saturday
The weather outlook on Saturday shows lingering cooler temps across the Great Lakes and Northeast. Meanwhile, temps in the Southern & Western US will be above average with record highs possible in the Southern US.
National Weather Outlook Friday
Saturday will feature a few showers and storms across the Great Lakes Region with a few late day strong storms possible in the Tennessee Valley,
National Weather Outlook
Here's the weather outlook through Sunday, which shows an area of low pressure intensifying over the Great Lakes this weekend. Showers and a few storms will be possible there and into the Northeast as the storm moves east. Meanwhile, the western half of the nation will by dry and mild.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, areas of heavy rainfall will be possible across the Great Lakes Region over the weekend. However, the heaviest rains will be found in Florida as potential Hurricane Ian moves through next week.
Climate Stories
"China's biggest lake declares 'red alert' as long drought lingers"
"The central Chinese province of Jiangxi has declared a water supply "red alert" for the first time after the Poyang freshwater lake, the country's biggest, dwindled to a record low, the Jiangxi government said on Friday. The Poyang Lake, normally a vital flood outlet for the Yangtze, China's longest river, has been suffering from drought since June, with water levels at a key monitoring spot falling from 19.43 metres to 7.1 metres over the last three months. The Jiangxi Water Monitoring Centre said Poyang's water levels would fall even further in coming days, with rainfall still minimal. Precipitation since July is 60% lower than a year earlier, it said."
See more from The Globe and Mail HERE:
"Which hurricane caused the most damage?"
"Powerful winds, drenching rain and towering storm surges make hurricanes not only some of the planet's most violent storms, but also the "costliest natural disasters in the United States," researchers reported in 2019 in the journal PNAS. Ranking the most damaging hurricanes, however, depends on the measure used: usually, financial cost or lives lost. By economic accounting, 2005's Hurricane Katrina usually tops the list (though models adjusting for economic growth place a 1926 Miami storm first). Meanwhile, the deadliest hurricane struck the Caribbean in 1780, causing more than 22,000 deaths, Eric Jay Dolin, author of "A Furious Sky: The Five-Hundred-Year History of America's Hurricanes" (2020, Liveright), told Live Science. (By definition, a "hurricane" is a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic or Eastern Pacific oceans, while other parts of the world call these storms typhoons or cyclones — some of which have been deadlier.)"
See more from Live Science HERE:
"EV sales to hit all-time high in 2022, IEA says, but more work needed to put world on net-zero path"
Electric vehicle sales are on course to hit an all-time high this year, but more work is needed in other sectors to put the planet on course for net-zero emissions by 2050, according to the International Energy Agency. In an announcement accompanying its Tracking Clean Energy Progress update, the IEA said there had been "encouraging signs of progress across a number of sectors" but cautioned that "stronger efforts" were required to put the world "on track to reach net zero emissions" by the middle of this century. The TCEP, which is published yearly, looked at 55 parts of the energy system. Focusing on 2021, it analyzed these components' progression when it came to hitting "key medium-term milestones by the end of this decade," as laid out in the Paris-based organization's net-zero pathway.
