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Mainly Sunny & Cool Monday With A Northwest Breeze Sticking Around
A spectacular Autumn Monday is ahead in the metro, even if the temperatures are 7F degrees below average. Mainly sunny skies with just passing clouds at times are expected. Morning temperatures start off in the upper 40s with highs climbing to the low 60s.
While it doesn't look to be quite as windy as Sunday was across the state, we're still going to see a brisk northwest breeze that could gust up to 30 mph at times in the metro.
Besides those strong winds, the weather will otherwise be calm on Monday with partly to mostly sunny skies and highs in the 50s and 60s - several degrees below average.
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Dry, Mostly Cool Fall Week Ahead
As we look at temperatures this upcoming week, Tuesday looks to be the coolest with highs not making it out of the 50s. Most of the week will see highs in the 60s, but a system moving in for the end of the week and beginning of next weekend could help boost temperatures up to the upper 60s and/or low 70s Friday into at least Saturday.
And it is going to be a mainly dry week across the state. The forecast rain up north you see is falling Sunday and Sunday Night, otherwise, through Friday evening there really isn't any precipitation expected across the state. As a frontal boundary moves in later Friday into Saturday a few showers might be possible Friday Night, but right now they look scattered and light in nature - and mainly to the west of the metro.
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Crisp Mornings This Week Lead To Frost And Freeze Concerns
Might we finally start to say "goodbye" to those dang mosquitoes? The potential exists into Tuesday and Wednesday mornings of a widespread frost - and even freeze conditions - across a good section of the state. We could even be approaching potential frost conditions here in the metro Wednesday morning.
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Below-Average Precipitation In September For Many
Despite some heavier batches of rain across parts of central and northern Minnesota this month, all climate locations are running at least slightly below average for September. Hibbing and Brainerd are the closest to average, only 0.05" below average in both locations through Saturday. Meanwhile, the Twin Cities has only picked up 0.23", over 2" below average.
And with no rain in the forecast through the end of the month on Friday, we'll end up with the driest September in Twin Cities history with that 0.23" of rain being all we could muster for the month. That'll beat the record of 0.27" in 1882.
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Fall Color Update
This was my view on Friday from Mt. Trudee up in Tettegouche State Park back on Friday. There were definitely patches of color - especially toward the top of trees - but there were plenty of green leaves still around. I'm sure within the next week to week and a half the view is going to look quite a lot different!
The colors are turning out there - in some areas faster than others. We've got a hodgepodge of color out there, with pockets of 25-50% spread across different areas of the state. One of those areas under 25-50% color is Hayes Lake State Park up in northwestern Minnesota, which stated simply on Friday: "The leaves are changing fast." You can keep your eye on this map over the next several weeks from the MN DNR by clicking here.
Here's a handy map of typical peak fall colors from the MN DNR. This ranges from mid/late September in far northern Minnesota to mid-October in southern parts of the state.
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Sunny This Week With A Slow Warming Trend
By Paul Douglas
All weather models are wrong. Some are wrong less often. The dark art of meteorology is knowing which models to believe and when. Alberta Clippers can be annoying. Category 3 hurricanes can be catastrophic.
If you have friends living in the Tampa Bay area reach out and encourage them to pay attention and have an evacuation plan.<p>ECMWF (European) guidance has been consistently predicting "Ian" to track toward Tampa, while NOAA's models have a track farther west, with landfall on the Florida Panhandle. I'm leaning toward the ECMWF solution. Tampa may be the most storm-surge-vulnerable major metro area in the US. We'll see how this plays out, but I have a bad feeling about what "Ian" may bring.
In stark contrast there will be no "weather" to speak of here at home this week. Light jackets today and Tuesday give way to low 70s and scattered shorts by late week. No soaking storms are brewing.
With weather apps everyone is now an armchair meteorologist. Encourage friends and family in Florida to have a plan.
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Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast
MONDAY: Partly sunny, breezy. Wake up 48. High 61. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind NW 15-25 mph.
TUESDAY: Cool sunshine, less wind. Wake up 44. High 60. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind N 7-12 mph.
WEDNESDAY: Blue sky, few complaints. Wake up 40. High 63. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind SE 5-10 mph.
THURSDAY: Sunny and milder. Wake up 46. High 66. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind SE 10-20 mph.
FRIDAY: Lukewarm sunshine. Wake up 51. High 69. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind S 10-20 mph.
SATURDAY: Mix of clouds and sunshine. Wake up 50. High 70. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SW 7-12 mph.
SUNDAY: A few more clouds, still nice. Wake up 54. High 72. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind W 7-12 mph.
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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
September 26th
*Length Of Day: 11 hours, 57 minutes, and 40 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 3 minutes and 6 seconds
*When Do We Drop Below 11 Hours Of Daylight?: October 15th (10 hours, 59 minutes, 7 seconds)
*When Does The Sun Start Rising At/After 7:30 AM?: October 16th (7:30 AM)
*When Does The Sun Start Setting At/Before 7 PM?: September 27th (7:00 PM)
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This Day in Weather History
September 26th
1980: Cold morning lows are recorded, with 20 degrees at Tower and 16 at Embarrass.
1942: 1.8 inches of snow falls in St. Cloud.
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National Weather Forecast
On Monday, all eyes will be on Ian which will be moving west of the Cayman Islands. However, moisture from that system will already be spreading north into portions of Florida, leading to showers and storms. An area of low pressure in portions of Canada near the eastern Great Lakes will produce storms in the Northeast and Great Lakes (which will also be helped by another system back toward the western Great Lakes). A trailing front into the southern U.S. could help produce storms in the Mid-Atlantic, along the northern and western Gulf Coasts, and portions of southern Texas.
Stormy weather through the second half of the weekend and into early in the week will lead to heavy rainfall in parts of the eastern Great Lakes, with over 3" possible for some. We're also tracking heavy rain in association with Ian working across the Florida Peninsula during the first half of the week.
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Ian A Threat To The Southeast (Particularly Florida)
While Ian has not been strengthening as fast as had been expected as the system still tries to get organized, we are expecting to see this storm strengthen Monday and Tuesday as it moves toward western Cuba. It could reach Category 4 hurricane strength across the southeast Gulf of Mexico before approaching the Big Bend region of Florida late week. Models are still split between the Tampa Bay to the Florida Panhandle region for a potential landfall, so that is something to keep an eye on in the next few days. While the system will be somewhat weakening due to strong winds aloft, that doesn't mean the danger will decrease: with this scenario, the wind field will be expanding and the system slowing down, which would increase both the size of the wind impacts across the region as well as expand the storm surge threat along the coast.
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Why Minnesota Democrats aren't embracing California's ban on new gas cars
More from MinnPost: "States like Washington and Massachusetts plan to join California in largely banning the sale of new gas-powered cars by 2035, seeing it as an effective way to rapidly cut greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation sector. In Minnesota, however, prominent Democrats who celebrated an earlier move toward cleaner vehicles are not supporting the idea — at least not so far. Gov. Tim Walz's administration hasn't ruled out a ban on selling new gas cars, though Walz's regulators strongly suggest it won't happen any time soon. Now, a key DFL lawmaker in the Minnesota House from progressive Minneapolis is also throwing cold water on the idea. State Rep. Jamie Long, who leads the House's Climate and Energy Finance and Policy Committee said the governor is "taking the right approach" by implementing an earlier and less strict version of California's auto emissions standards for just one year."
EV adoption is one of the world's only climate bright spots
More from Protocol: "This year is on track to be a record for global electric vehicle adoption. EVs are expected to make up 13% of light duty vehicle sales, and the world is on track to hit a 2030 milepost en route to net zero by mid-century. Yet the road ahead is far from smooth in other industries. In 2021, EV sales doubled and made up 9% of the car market by the year's end. This year's surge is due to more being sold in European and Chinese markets, according to the new installment of the International Energy Agency's Tracking Clean Energy Progress report released this week. However, the report notes that "electric vehicles are not yet a global phenomenon" and sales in the Global South have lagged due to both high sticker prices and a charging infrastructure deficit. (Exported gas-powered cars are also keeping many emerging countries stuck on fossil fuels.)"
Air Pollution Can Amplify Negative Effects of Climate Change
More from the University of Texas at Austin: "The impacts of air pollution on human health, economies and agriculture differ drastically depending on where on the planet the pollutants are emitted, according to a new study that could potentially incentivize certain countries to cut climate-changing emissions. Led by The University of Texas at Austin and the University of California San Diego, the study is the first to simulate how pollutants affect both climate and air quality for locations around the globe. The research, which is published in Science Advances, analyzed the climate and air quality impacts of aerosols — tiny solid particles and liquid droplets that contribute to smog and are emitted from industrial factories, power plants and vehicle tailpipes. Aerosols create unique global patterns of impact on human health, agricultural and economic productivity when compared with carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, which are the focus of efforts to mitigate climate change."
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Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).
- D.J. Kayser
