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"Why Canada's wildfires are extreme and getting worse, in 4 charts"
"There is little that's normal about the siege of Canadian wildfires that sent record amounts of smoke pouring into the Lower 48 last week. Even as the fires in Quebec have eased some and the hazy skies over the eastern United States have mostly cleared, blazes still rage in parts of British Columbia and Alberta. Statistics on the fires — which help place their scope in historical context — continue to show how extreme they are. And they're part of a trend toward larger, fiercer fires and more-damaging fire seasons. The fires have burned the most land on record so early in the season — more than 4.7 million hectares (11.6 million acres). And already, even though the fire season is just underway, more area has burned than in all but three entire fire seasons since modern records began in 1983."
See more from Washington Post HERE:
Canadian Wildfire Smoke
Thanks to a number a very large Canadian wildfires, endless plumes of wildfire smoke continues to drift across the Canadian Provinces and south into the Lower 48. This summer is shaping up to be a hot, dry and smoky one, which doesn't appear to end anytime soon.
Smoky Skies Return
Here's the wildfire smoke analysis into Wednesday, which shows widespread smoke drifting over much of the Upper Midwest and Minnesota. Some of the smoke concentration looks fairly impressive, so skies will be quite hazy with slightly lower visibility at times.
Air Quality Alert Through Thursday
"Smoke from Canadian wildfires will move into northern Minnesota beginning Tuesday evening and will reach Brainerd and Alexandria by early Wednesday morning. The smoke will slowly move south during the day Wednesday and may approach St. Cloud in the evening. In addition, light smoke may move into southeast Minnesota on Wednesday evening. Winds will shift and push this smoke towards the west. Smoke will linger across much of the state throughout the day on Thursday, but concentrations should decrease below the orange category Thursday morning. In addition, sunny skies, warm temperatures, low humidity, and light winds will produce an environment for volatile organic compounds (VOC) and oxides of nitrogen (NOx) to react in the air to produce elevated levels of ozone in the afternoon. Ozone will be elevated across the Twin Cities and Rochester during the afternoon hours, but will decrease in the evening."
5th Driest May 1st - June 13th On Record
According to NOAA's NWS, this is the 5th driest May 1st through June 13th on record with only 1.71" of rain falling at the MSP Airport. Note that since May 1st, MSP should've had nearly 6.00" of rain, so we are more than 4.00" below average.
MN Drought Update
According to the US Drought Monitor, parts of Minnesota are under a MODERATE drought now, which includes parts of the Twin Cities. This moderate drought area is where the rainfall deficit is nearly -2.00" to -4.00" below average over the last 30 days. These drought areas will continue to expand if we don't get any good rain anytime soon.
30 Day Precipitation Anomaly
The map below shows the 30 day precipitation anomaly, which indicates that some locations in red are nearly -3.00" or more below average since mid May. This is where drought conditions are expanding... we need rain soon!
Weather Outlook Through Midday Thursday
Here's the weather outlook through midday Thursday, which shows mostly quiet and dry conditions continuing across the region. The good news is that strong winds will subside a bit as we slide through the week, but hot temperatures and smoky skies will return over the next few days.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
Much of the week ahead will be dry and hot, so lawns and gardens will continue to need manual watering. Later this week will bring a chance of showers and storms, which could produce a few pockets of rain. The best chance of a decent rain will arrive PM Friday into Friday night. Stay tuned...
Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Wednesday
The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Wednesday, June 14th shows sunny and dry weather conditions with highs approaching 90F, which will be well above average once again. We'll also see smoky/hazier skies through the day with Air Quality Concerns in place.
Meteograms For Minneapolis
The hourly temps through the day Wednesday show temps starting in the mid 60s in the morning with highs warming to near 90F by the afternoon. North to Northwesterly winds won't be as gusty as they were earlier this week with gusts only at 10mph to 15mph.
Weather Outlook For Wednesday
Here's the weather outlook across the region for Wednesday. Skies will remain dry, but hazy with high temps warming into the upper 80s to near 90F across the state, which will be nearly +10F to +15F above average for mid-June. Visibilities will be a little lower with Air Quality concerns in place through the day as well.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
Temperatures for the Twin Cities will remain well above average through the rest of the week as high temps warm into the upper 80s to near 90F. Thanks to some rain and thunder chances, we'll cool a little on Saturday back to near normal readings around 80F.
Comfy Dewpoints Continue
Dewpoints will still be comfortable through the week, but it will slowly become more humid as we slide into the weekend.
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended weather outlook for the Twin Cities will be warmer than average over the next few days with hot and slightly more humid conditions developing through the end of the week. Late Friday brings our first real chance of decent rainfall to parts of the region with a few thunderstorms possible. Lingering showers will be possible into the weekend, but rainfall amounts should remain lower over the weekend.
Extended Temperature Outlook
The NBM extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows a warmup to near 90F midweek and also toward the 3rd week of June. Note that MSP has only seen 0.26" of rain since May 15th, which is the driest May 15th to June 13th on record at MSP.
Weather Outlook
Weather conditions across the Midwest remain quite dry through the week ahead with only a slight chance of rain or thunder developing later in the week. Meanwhile, isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across the Southern US with locally heavy rain.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14-day temperature outlook shows warmer-than-average temperatures settling in across much of the Central US, including the Midwest, while cooler than average temps will settle in across the Western US and also across the Mid-Atlantic.
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows more active weather possible across Northwestern US as we head into mid-month. Drier weather will settle in across Texas and the Desert Southwest.
More Smoke Than Rain Into The Weekend
By Paul Douglas
Where have all the thunderstorms gone? May and June are peak months for lightning, thunder, hail and high water. I should be tracking squall lines of severe storms on Doppler as well as nocturnal storms bubbling up along warm frontal boundaries. Not this year. A few puny showers and isolated thunderstorms yes, but a far cry from the rock and roll atmosphere we are accustomed to in June.
Instead, Minnesota meteorologists are tracking smoke plumes from Canada and wondering (out loud) if El Nino will amplify the heat this summer. An odd pattern.
It was 38F in Madison, Wisconsin early Monday. Meanwhile, Texas and the Gulf Coast are bracing for 100-110 degree heat. Puerto Rico just experienced heat indices as high as 120-125!
Minnesota will get a taste of the heat with a shot at 90F today, and a streak of days near 90F next week. The best chance of a few T-storms? PM hours Saturday.
Models bring smoke from Canadian wildfires into Minnesota today, turning a blue sky hazy-gray. I'm tracking "smoke fronts".
Extended Forecast
WEDNESDAY: Hot, smoky sunshine. Winds: NW 7-12. High: 89.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Hazy skies. Winds: NNW 5. Low: 65.
THURSDAY: Hazy sunshine, more smoke. Winds: E 7-12. High 86.
FRIDAY: Warm sunshine, lingering smoke. Winds: SE 5-10. Wake-up: 64. High 87.
SATURDAY: Sticky with a few PM T-storms. Winds: S 5-10. Wake-up: 65. High: 89.
SUNDAY: More sunshine and warmer. Winds: SE 8-13. Wake-up. 63. High: 90.
MONDAY: Sunny and hot Winds: SE 8-13. Wake-up: 66. High: 91.
TUESDAY: Murky sun, early Dog Days. Winds: SE 8-13. Wake-up: 68. High 92.
This Day in Weather History
June 14th
1981: A tornado hits Roseville, destroying homes and damages Har Mar Mall.
1956: 8 inches of rain fall in the Ivanhoe area in 3.5 hours. 100 thousand dollars in damage to crops is reported.
1943: Torrential downpours cause flooding in the Twin Cities and east central Minnesota. 2.5 inches of rain fall in St. Paul in two hours. In addition, four streetcars are hit by lightning.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
June 14th
Average High: 79F (Record: 98F set in 1987)
Average Low: 60F (Record: 44F set in 1909, 1917 & 1927)
Record Rainfall: 2.48" set in 1924
Record Snowfall: NONE
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
June 14th
Sunrise: 5:25am
Sunset: 9:00pm
Hours of Daylight: ~15 hours & 34 minutes
Daylight GAINED since yesterday: +32 Seconds
Daylight GAINED since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 6 hour & 48 minutes
Moon Phase for June 14th at Midnight
32.9 Days Before New Moon
National High Temps on Wednesday
Temperatures on Wednesday will be a little cooler across many areas in the US with 60s along the West Coast and thunderstorms along the East Coast.
National Weather Wednesday
The weather outlook on Wednesday will still be unsettled across the Southern US, where strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible. We'll also see storms develop in the Eastern US and through the Intermountain-West.
National Weather Outlook
The weather outlook through Wednesday shows unsettled weather continuing across the Central and Southern US with strong to severe thunderstorms across the Gulf Coast States. Some of the storms could produce gusty winds and large hail along with locally heavy rainfall.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, the extended precipitation outlook shows heavier precipitation developing from parts of the Western US into the Central US and in the Eastern US. Some of the heaviest rain will be found across the Gulf Coast and into the Southeastern US.
Climate Stories
"Disturbing find at bottom of ocean triggers worrying weather prediction"
"The world's coldest, densest mass of ocean water is critical to the Earth's temperature regulation. And worryingly, it's shrinking. Antarctic Bottom Water is formed by cold winds at a handful of sites around Antarctica. The exceptionally salty water sinks to the seafloor, filling depths below 4000 metres as it spreads to basins connected to the Southern Ocean. Its flow helps the world's oceans circulate and this assist them in storing heat and absorbing carbon. If this process is affected, then it will be bad news for humankind, because oceans have so far absorbed 90 per cent of the heating created by human activities and around a third of extra carbon pollution created since the Industrial Revolution."
See more from Yahoo News HERE:
"Tornado alley is widening, putting millions more people and properties at risk"
"The threat of tornadoes is rising as the weather conditions that create them are becoming more frequent and widespread due to global warming, experts say. That means a lot of areas that rarely see these storms are now in their paths. The U.S. experienced six times more billion-dollar severe storms in the past decade than in the previous two decades, according to Climate Central. Those are the storms that produce tornadoes. So far this year, tornadoes have taken at least 58 lives across 10 states, already surpassing the annual average. Much of that is because the season is starting earlier, and tornado alley is expanding due to a warmer climate. "Northeast Texas, eastern Oklahoma, the Arkansas River Valley, the mid-South, these areas are expected to see a near doubling of storms that produce tornadoes," said Walker Scott Ashley, professor of meteorology at Northern Illinois University."
"A Clear Indication That Climate Change Is Burning Up California"
"In the past six years, California has logged three of its five deadliest fires on record, and eight of its 10 biggest. More than 100 people have died, tens of thousands have been displaced, and millions more have been subjected to smoky air, the health consequences of which we don't fully understand. We know that climate change supercharges these fires thanks to the drier environments it creates, but by how much is tricky to say. Fire science is a complicated thing: A blaze might arise from a lightning strike, a hot car on tall summer grass, snapped power lines. But a paper published today in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences delivers a fuller sense of the relationship between human-caused warming and California's wildfires. It finds that climate change is responsible for almost all of the increase in scorched acreage during the state's summer fires over the past 50 years. And its authors predict that the increase in burned area will only continue in the decades to come. The arrival of this study is a timely reminder just days after East Coasters endured a toxic haze that originated in Canada: Wildfire is an international problem, and it's likely to get worse as time goes on."
See more from The Atlantic HERE:
