Minnesota on Thursday reported another 22 COVID-19 deaths, raising the August toll from the coronavirus to 121, more than double July's total.
All but one of the deaths occurred in August — with one being verified in July — amid the emergence of a highly infectious delta variant of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19. The deaths included 13 senior citizens, an age group that has suffered 87% of Minnesota's total of 7,839 deaths, but also a Chisago County individual in the 30 to 34 age range. Forty people younger than 35 have died of COVID-19 since the start of the pandemic.
The high, single-day death total reflects the continued risk of the pandemic despite vaccination progress. Minnesota on Thursday reported that more than 3.3 million people have received at least a first dose of COVID-19 vaccine — amounting to 70.7% of its eligible 12 and older population.
Separate federal tracking, which includes vaccinations at sites such as the Minneapolis VA Medical Center that aren't tallied by the state, puts Minnesota's first-dose rate in people 18 and older at 74.8%.
The state on Thursday reported 1,904 coronavirus infections, raising Minnesota's total to 653,288. People with COVID-19 filled 631 inpatient hospital beds in Minnesota on Wednesday — including 163 intensive care beds — bringing the state closer to the one-day peak that occurred during last spring's wave of 699 hospitalizations.
But infection activity in Minnesota has been falling short of modeling estimates by Mayo Clinic, raising hope the state may avoid the severe outbreaks taking place in states such as Florida, where hospital resources are in short supply.
Minnesota should expect more infections in September and October, even as numbers decline elsewhere, said Curtis Storlie, a biomedical statistician at Mayo. But the state perhaps won't see the level of pandemic activity that occurred last fall when it reported a one-day record of 1,864 COVID-19 hospitalizations on Nov. 29.
"There's certainly a chance that things [in Minnesota] could accelerate," Storlie said. "But at the present time, that's what's being expected — a much slower burn than in Florida, so we probably won't have the crippling peak they had."
Mayo's forecasting agrees with this week's Ensemble model by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which combined estimates from 21 organizations and predicted a short-term peak in Minnesota infection numbers later this month.
Severe COVID-19 waves fueled by the delta variant peaked quickly in England and India. State health officials said they are hopeful for a similarly abrupt wave in Minnesota that also is blunted by vaccinations.
Studies have shown that the two-dose Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have lost some effectiveness at preventing any coronavirus infections amid the rise of the delta variant, but remain strongly protective against severe illness, hospitalization and death. Studies are lagging on the single-dose Johnson & Johnson vaccine because it was approved later.
How many of Minnesota's newly reported deaths involved vaccinated people is unclear. The state tracks breakthrough infections — including 80 COVID-19 deaths in fully vaccinated people so far — but there is a time lag in syncing infection and vaccination databases.
Gov. Tim Walz urged remaining unvaccinated Minnesotans to seek their shots and take advantage of incentives, including the extended weekly lottery for vaccine recipients at Terminal 2 of the Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, who can win $200 Sun Country vouchers.
"Getting the safe, free and effective shot is vital to slowing the spread of COVID-19," the governor said.
The positivity rate of COVID-19 diagnostic testing has increased to 6.7%, above the state's 5% caution threshold for substantial viral spread and a low of 1.1% on June 29 before the delta variant became the dominant strain in Minnesota. Genomic sequencing of positive specimens suggests as much as 95% of new infections in Minnesota involve the variant.
One concern is that outbreaks at large events, such as the Minnesota State Fair, or in schools could worsen the current wave beyond projections.
At least 113 school buildings for pre-kindergarten through age 12 children reported positive infections in the two-week period ending Aug. 28. That is a modest increase from prior weeks at the beginning of the school year, according to a weekly COVID-19 report released Thursday by the Minnesota Department of Health.
Fifty colleges or institutions of higher learning reported infections in that time period that were a decline from prior weeks amid mandates and incentives to vaccinate students before classes resume.
Staff writer Christopher Snowbeck contributed to this article.
Jeremy Olson • 612-673-7744
