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Sunrise on Sunday, September 5th, 2021
Fall Color Tracker
According to the MN DNR, much of the state is already experiencing minor changes in the fall color. Keep in mind that much of the summer was hot and dry, so some of the trees are a bit stressed and could be prematurely changing. With that being said, we are getting closer to that time of the year. See the latest update from the MN DNR HERE:
Fall Color Depends on Weather
Ever wonder why some years, fall color is so vibrant vs some years, fall color tends to be a bit more dull? Val Cervenka, Coordinator from the DNR Forest Health Program, shares how the weather can play a roll in those fall colors. Due to the hot and dry summer that most of experienced, it is likely that fall foliage could be less impressive this year with more tans, bronzes and auburns.
Typical Peak Dates For Fall Color
According to the MN DNR, fall colors typically start to peak across the northern part of the state in mid/late September. Peak color typically arrives in central and southern Minnesota late September and into early/mid October. Note that over the next several weeks, you'll notice some big changes in the landscape as we head deeper into fall.
Hurricane Larry
Take a look at the visible satellite loop of Hurricane Larry from AM Sunday. At this point, Larry was a major category 3 storm with 120mph sustained winds in the central Atlantic. At one point on Saturday, Larry had 125+mph winds, there have only been 3 other Atlantic seasons on record that have had 3 hurricanes with max winds of 125+mph by September 4th: 1933, 2005 and 2008. Hurricane Grace & Ida had maximum winds of >=125mph winds already this year.
Tracking Larry
According to NOAA's NHC, Larry is tracking NW and could be near Bermuda mid to late week as a potentially major category 3 storm with strong winds, heavy rains and a storm surge. Stay tuned!
Drought Comparison
Here's the drought comparison from week to week (August 24th vs August 31st). Note that many locations across the southern two-thirds of the state picked up some much needed precipitation. A few locations picked up several inches of rainfall, which helped to dent the drought in many spots. Note that Extreme Drought conditions dropped from 57% on the 24th to 38% on the 31st, while Severe Drought conditions dropped from nearly 97% to 89%. It was a nice dent, but we still need more rain!
Precipitation Departure From Average Since Jan. 1st
Despite picking up some much needed rainfall at the end of August, many locations are still several inches below average since January 1st. Some of the biggest deficits are still across the northern half of the state, where Exceptional Drought conditions are in place. However, the Twin Cities is now less than -3.00" below average.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
The week ahead looks most dry across the southwestern half of the state, including much of the Twin Cities. However, precipitation values across the northeastern part of the state could approach 0.25" to 0.50" as a system passes through the region late Monday night into Tuesday. The next best chance of rain could push through Friday night and early Saturday. Stay tuned...
Simulated Radar From AM Monday to Sunday
Here's the simulated radar through our first full week of September; AM Monday to Sunday. Note that a system will pass through the northeastern part of the state PM Monday into Tuesday, but much of the precipitation will be found well northeast of the Twin Cities. There could be another system that slides through the region later in the week, but at this point, we don't see much appreciative precipitation potential over the next 5 to 7 days across the Midwest.
Weather Outlook for Labor Day Monday
The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Monday, September 6th looks like another nice day with mild sunshine. Temps will warm into the upper 70s to near 80F, which will be pretty close to average for early September.
Minneapolis Meteograms
The meteograms for Minneapolis on Monday shows temps warming from the mid 50s in the morning to the mid to upper 70s by the afternoon. Skies will be sunny for much of the day with SSW winds at 10mph-20mph.
Regional Weather Outlook for Monday
The weather outlook across the region on Monday shows temps running close to average across much of the region with highs warming into the 70s across the state. Much of the region will be dry and sunny with a few isolated T-Showers possible across the Dakotas.
Extended Weather Outlook for Minneapolis
The extended weather outlook for Minneapolis shows near average temps over the next several days with highs warming into mid/upper 70s. There could be a few isolated showers early Tuesday, but the threat remains fairly low.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows warmer than average temps across much of the nation as we head into the middle part of the month. Cooler than average temps will be possible along the West Coast and into Alaska.
Shorts Advised For Last Day of State Fair
By Paul Douglas
True confession: my wife of 37 years is a wondrous freak. She gets so stressed watching our college alma mater play football that we TAPE the game and ONLY watch it if they win. "I have enough stress in my life" she shrugs. File that under unique coping skills. I wish I could do that for 2020 and 2021 - just play back the good parts. It wouldn't take long.
At least the holiday weather has been a breath of fresh, sun-kissed perfection. What a stretch. And today is the icing on the atmospheric cake, with enough sun for 80 degrees, with a few thunderstorms rumbling into town tonight. Gusty northwest winds on Tuesday pull in some cooler Canadian exhaust by midweek, but low 80s return by Friday. Next weekend looks showery as opposing airmasses scuffle overhead, but until the drought breaks I won't be grumbling about weekend puddles.
We went to the State Fair Sunday, munching and gawking our way through the food and exhibits, enjoying the best people-watching this side of Vegas. One more perfect day!
Extended Forecast
MONDAY: Warm sun. Storms tonight. Winds: S 10-15. High: 80.
MONDAY NIGHT: Slight chance of T-showers. Winds: S 10-15. Low: 63.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny with a stiff breeze. Winds: NW 15-25. High: 74.
WEDNESDAY: More clouds. stray shower up north. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 58. High: 72.
THURSDAY: Sunny weather perfection. Winds: SW 5-10. Wake-up: 52. High: 75.
FRIDAY: Plenty of warm sunshine. Winds: W 8-13. Wake-up: 59. High: 82.
SATURDAY: . Early shower then clearing. Winds: N 10-15. Wake-up: 63. High: 76.
SUNDAY: .Cooler with an opportunity for showers. Winds: E 10-15. Wake-up: 56. High: 69.
This Day in Weather History
September 6th
1977: An early morning thunderstorm drops 2 inch hail in McLeod County.
1922: A heat wave over Minnesota brings highs over 100 to southwest Minnesota. One of the hot spots is New Ulm with 105.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
September 6th
Average High: 76F (Record: 98F set in 1922)
Average Low: 57F (Record: 35F set in 1885)
Record Rainfall: 1.61" set in 1881
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
August 13th
Sunrise: 6:41am
Sunset: 7:40pm
Hours of Daylight: ~12 hours & 59 minutes
Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 3 minute & 3 seconds
Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 20th): ~2 Hour & 38 Minutes
Moon Phase for September 6th at Midnight
0.3 Days Since New Moon
What's in the Night Sky?
"The northern sky is like a large celestial clock, with Polaris – aka the North Star – at its center. In other words, the entire northern sky wheels in a great circle throughout the night (although it's wheeling in a counter-clockwise direction). But the northern star Polaris stays still (or nearly so). That's because Earth's northern axis nearly points to it. And so Polaris is the famous North Star, used by sea navigators and scouts to find the direction north. Want to find it? You can use the famous Big Dipper asterism to locate Polaris. Notice that a line from the two outermost stars in the bowl of the Big Dipper points to Polaris. And notice that Polaris marks the tip of the handle of the Little Dipper. Just notice all this soon, because, in September, the Big Dipper is headed for its least noticeable time of year. The reason is that the Big Dipper swings full circle – 360 degrees – around Polaris in about 23 hours and 56 minutes. In 24 hours, the Big Dipper actually swings more than a full circle, or 361 degrees. Does that make a difference? Yes! It means that – if you look at the same time each evening – the Big Dipper will appear just a little bit lower in the northwestern evening sky."
Dixie Fire in Northern California
The #DixieFire is the 2nd largest fire in California's history burning nearly 890,000 acres as of September 5th. The fire is only 56% contained and has burned several structures. The largest wildfires in the state's history was the August Complex from 2020, which burned more than 1 million acres.
Caldor Fire
Nearly 5,000 people are battling the #CaldorFire southwest of Lake Tahoe, which has burned nearly 215,000 acres and is 43% contained. This fire has prompted a number of evacuations as it has quickly spread over the last several days.
Largest Wildfires in California State History
Here's a list of California's Top 20 Largest Wildfires in the state's history. Note the Dixie Fire is still ongoing and it the 2nd largest wildfire on record. The Caldor fire is nearly 215,000 acres a is currently the state's 15th largest fire in history. The Monument Fire is also currently active, burning almost 180,000 acres as is the 18th largest fire in California history.
National High Temps Monday
The weather outlook on Labor Day Monday shows above average temps across much of the nation. Spotty showers and storms will be possible across the Southern US with areas of smoky skies in the Western US.
National Weather Outlook
The national weather outlook on through the early week time frame showers spotty showers and storms along the Gulf Coast region as a front slowly sags south. There will also be areas of rain in the Great Lakes Region. Meanwhile, the Western US will remain hot and dry.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center heavier precipitation potential will be found around the Great Lakes Region and into the Northeast. There will also be areas of heavier precipitation along the Gulf Coast as a tropical wave moves in from the south.
Climate Stories
"California's massive wildfires are doing something no wildfire has ever done before"
"Between natural disasters and once-in-a-lifetime pandemics, the word "unprecedented" has perhaps been overused in the past year. Yet nature continues to shock us with new, previously unseen crises, warranting the adjective's use in print. That's especially true in the case of California's 2021 wildfire season, which is indeed unprecedented. Currently, there are two massive wildfires burning across California's Sierra Nevada mountain range— the Caldor Fire, and the Dixie Fire. The Caldor Fire started on August 14, 2021. Over the last 17 days, it has burned 204,390 acres and is only 20 percent contained. As it encroaches on the Lake Tahoe basin, a popular vacation spot for Californians in the summer and skiers across the world in the winter, evacuation orders have been mandated in many neighborhoods and have even expanded from California to Nevada as many expect the massive fire to cross the state line."
"Understanding Pyrocumulonimbi, aka 'Fire Clouds'"
"Caused by wildfires, they can trigger lightning, create fire tornadoes and turbocharge winds that accelerate the spread of a conflagration. As the Bootleg Fire rages across south-central Oregon and the Dixie Fire scorches Northern California, obliterating hundreds of thousands of acres of forest, the roiling flames have launched massive smoke plumes into the air. Typically, the smoke is lofted to a few kilometers above ground and then picked up and carried by wind currents across the country—much like weather fronts that carry moisture and bring rain—to blanket New York City and the Eastern Seaboard in a thick haze. But the Bootleg has sent up a towering vertical plume, lofting smoke up to a record-breaking 16 kilometers. Intense hot fires from dense fuels; local weather conditions and dry surface; and high-altitude atmospheric clouds, conspired together causing the plume to rise far above ordinary clouds. When you see these pyrocumulonimbus clouds, or pyrocumulonimbi, you know you've got big trouble below. Known also by the abbreviation pyroCb, these clouds are are so intense that they modify local weather, producing intense downbursts, for example and creating amazing lightning storms that can ignite more fires."
See more from Scientific American HERE:
"Droughts have killed the most people in the world's worst natural disasters over the last 50 years"
"Droughts are the leading cause of death from the world's worst disasters in the last 50 years, according to a report the World Meteorological Organization released on Tuesday. The UN agency's report, which considered more than 11,000 weather disasters over the past half-century, highlighted four specific droughts that occured in eastern Africa in the 1970s and 1980s as the leading killers. In all, droughts killed 650,000 people. The next biggest cause of death from disasters was storms, with more than 575,000 deaths. Disasters related to weather, climate, or water hazards happen five times more often now than they did in the 1970s, but the deaths they cause have decreased significantly, the report said. The 1970s and 1980s saw an average of 170 deaths per day, which fell to 90 in the 1990s. In the 2010s, there were 40 deaths per day related to weather disasters."
See more from Business Insider HERE:
