Cold Air Lingers in the Eastern US. Warmer This Weekend
The 850mb temp anomaly through the week ahead shows a chunk of very chilly weather slowing drifting through the eastern half of the nation. Temps will be well below average even down into Florida through the end of the week. We'll see gradually warming temps in the Central US through the 2nd half of the week and weekend ahead.
Extended Temperature Outlook
Here's the extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis through the end of the month. Note that readings will still be very chilly (jacket-worthy) through the first half of the week with a gradual warming trend by the weekend. We could be near 70F again this weekend before another cool snap arrives for the last full week of October.
Fall Color Update
Here's the fall color update for Minnesota & Wisconsin. Fall colors are peaking or past peak in many spots across the central and northern half of Minnesota. Colors are peaking across the southern half of Minnesota and into much of Wisconsin.
Average Fall Color
The MN DNR has put together a nice graphic that shows typical dates for peak fall color. The northern par of the state starts to peak during the 2nd half of September into early October. Meanwhile, folks in the central part of the state and into the metro typically don't see peak color until the end of September into the middle part of October. It won't be long now - enjoy!
What Causes Fall Colors?
The chemicals - Four main groups of biochemicals are responsible for the various yellows, oranges, reds and browns that we see in the fall: Chlorophyll, Carotenoids, Anthocyanins, Tannins. Each has its own color and chemistry. As the amount of these chemicals vary, they will cause subtle variations in color from one leaf to the next, or even from tree to tree.
How Does Weather Affect Fall Color?
Another Mostly Dry Week Ahead
The weather outlook through Sunday looks fairly quiet with minimal precipitation chances in the Upper Midwest. An area of low pressure will meander over the Great Lakes through midweek, which will keep our weather rather stagnant, cold and dry closer to home. However, it does appear that a storms system could move through late Sunday into early next week with showers and perhaps a few storms. Temps on the other side of the front will be quite chilly once again, so next week is looking jacket-worthy once again.
Here's the extended precipitation potential through midday Sunday, which shows very minimal precipitation potential anywhere across the state. Late Sunday into Monday could bring a better chance of precipitation, so stay tuned...
Severe Drought Continues in the Metro
According to the US Drought Monitor (updated October 11th) there is now a sliver of Extreme drought from the Twin Cities to Southwestern MN. This is an area that is well below average precipitation for the year.
Precipitation Departure From Average Since January 1st
Since January 1st, the Twin Cities is more than -9.00" below average precipitation, which is the 20th driest start to any year on record at the MSP Airport. Meanwhile, International Falls is more than +10" above average, which is the 2nd wettest start to any year on record.
Low Temps Monday
The low temperature at the MSP Airport dipped below freezing for the first time this season, making it the official first frost/freeze of the season in the immediate Twin Cities Metro. Note that our average first frost in the Twin Cities is around October 13th, so we were only a few days beyond that. Last year, our first frost was on October 23rd.
Average First Frost For MSP
Here's the 30 year average for the first frost in Minneapolis, which lands on October 13th. Last year (2021) the first frost was on October 23rd. If you look at the full MSP record, which dates back to 1873, the latest frost was November 18th back in 2016, while the earliest frost was September 3rd back in 1974.
First Measurable Snow at MSP
Note that on Friday, October 14th, the MSP recorded 0.4" of snowfall making it the first measurable snow of the season. Here's the average first measurable snowfall (0.01") at MSP over the last 30 years, which lands on November 6th. Last year, MSP had its first measurable snow on November 13th. The last was on December 3rd back in 1928, while the earliest was September 24th in 1985.
Weather Outlook on Tuesday
Temperatures on Tuesday will still be very chilly for mid October with temps running nearly -10F to -20F below average across the state. Highs will only warm into the 30s & 40s for most locations, which will feel more like late November.
Weather Outlook Tuesday
The weather outlook for Minneapolis on Tuesday shows temps warming to near 40F, which is well below average for this time of the year. Winds will be breezy out of the north-northwest, which will also make it feel more like the 10s and 20s through the first half of the day.
Meteograms for Minneapolis
The hourly forecast for Minneapolis on Tuesday shows temps starting in the mid 20s in the morning and warming to near 40F by the afternoon. Skies will generally be sunny with wind gusts out of the north-northwest to near 25mph.
Hourly Feels Like Temps on Tuesday
The hourly feels like temperature for Minneapolis on Tuesday will be quite chilly with readings in the 10s and 20s through the first half of the day. It'll feel a little better by the early/mid afternoon hours, but not by much.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis over the next several days shows a gradual warming trend through the week. Tuesday & Wednesday will still be November-like with highs only warming into the 40s. We'll get closer to average on Thursday and above average by Friday, Saturday & Sunday with highs back in the 60s to near 70F.
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended weather outlook over the next 7 days shows cold temps in place through the first half of the week with a gradual warming trend to near average temps by Thursday. Above average readings return Friday and into the weekend with highs possibly in the 70s.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows cooler than average temps across the western half of the nation, while warmer than average temps will set up in the eastern half of the nation.
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows more active weather setting up across much of the nation. This will be a change from the most dry weather that we've been experiencing over the last several weeks.
Hard Freeze, Then Second Summer This Weekend
By Paul Douglas
Can you teach an old dog new tricks? I sure hope so. We can all learn, evolve and become better people. That's not "woke". That's treating others the same way you expect to be treated. The stuff our parents taught us.
My entire career I've been using the term "Indian Summer". That is the last time I'll ever utter the phrase. The American Meteorological Society says: "Using the phrase is discouraged and claims that it is disrespectful of Native American people. In its place, the AMS chose Second summer another phrase used to express an unseasonably warm and dry period in autumn in mainly temperate climates of North America." Apologies. I should have done this years ago.
Get ready for more weather whiplash: a hard freeze early today gives way to 70 degrees this weekend. Expect another sunny streak this week with 60s, even 70 degrees this weekend.
Windswept rain Sunday night and Monday will be followed by a cool-down to "average" next week.
But first: a mellow Second Summer. I like the sound of that.
TUESDAY: Hard freeze early. Sunny. Winds: NW 10-15. High: 42.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear & cold. Winds: NNW 5. Low: 28.
WEDNESDAY: Mix of clouds and sunshine. Winds: NW 8-13. High: 45.
THURSDAY: Sun glasses required. A nicer day. Winds: W 8-13. Wake-up: 35. High: 55.
FRIDAY: Sunny and milder. Winds: NW 7-12. Wake-up: 42. High: 64.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny and very pleasant. Winds: SE 10-15. Wake-up: 42. High: 68.
SUNDAY: Fading sun, breezy. Showers late. Winds: SE 15-25. Wake-up: 55. High: 70.
MONDAY: Blustery and cooler with showers. Winds: NW 20-40. Wake-up: 52. High: 56.
This Day in Weather History
1950: Record high temperatures are set across the area as highs reached the mid to upper 80s. Minneapolis and Farmington saw highs of 87 degrees Fahrenheit, while Albert Lea reached 86 degrees.
1916: A blizzard impacts Minnesota. A sharp temperature drop begins as well; Hallock drops from the 60s to 2 above by the 20th.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
Average High: 57F (Record: 87F set in 1950)
Average Low: 40F (Record: 18F set in 1972)
Record Rainfall: 1.05" set in 1979
Record Snowfall: 1.3" set in 1976
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
Hours of Daylight: ~10 hours & 50 minutes
Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 3 minutes & 00 seconds
Daylight LOST since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 4 hour & 49 minutes
Moon Phase for October 18th at Midnight
1.6 Day After Last Quarter Moon
Record Low High Temps on Tuesday
A chunk of very chilly air for Mid-October will set up in the eastern half of the nation. Each location that has a circle around the number is a possible record cold high temperature for October 18th.
National High Temps Tuesday
The weather outlook on Tuesday shows well below average temps in place across the eastern half of the nation, where some locations could be nearly -20F below average. Meanwhile, folks in the western half of the nation will be above average and especially in the High Plains / Pacific Northwest.
National Weather Outlook Tuesday
Very chilly air will be in place across the eastern half of the nation and it could be cold enough for a rain/snow mix in the Great Lakes Region. Meanwhile, folks in the western half of the nation will be warmer and drier.
National Weather Outlook
The weather outlook through the early week time frame shows a few t-storms along a cool front that will move through the Southern and Eastern US. Areas of rain and snow will continue in the Great Lakes, but dry weather continues in the Western US.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, areas of heavy rain will be possible downwind of the Great Lakes, some of which will fall in the form of snow. There will also be some decent precipitation in the Rockies and the Pacific Northwest late in the forecast period.
Areas of heavy snowfall will be possible in the Great Lakes Region through the early week time frame. There will also be some decent snowfall potential in the Western half of the nation as we get closer to the last week of October. It's getting to be that time of the year!
"Once-Frozen Chemicals Could Pollute Water as Winters Warm"
"Typically, leftover agricultural chemicals from manure and fertilizer freeze during the winter. In much of the United States, frigid temperatures and a blanket of snow lock the pollution in place, where it can't do much environmental harm. Then, the ice thaws in the spring, when plants can help soak up the nutrients and prevent them from running off into nearby waterways. But as human-caused climate change warms the Earth, winter rains could release this nutrient pollution at a time when dormant plants can't absorb it, leading it to flow into streams, lakes and rivers, according to a new paper published in the journal Environmental Research Letters last week. This process, which researchers say could play out in more than 40 states, has the potential to cause big problems, including algae blooms and fish die-offs."
"More Intense Rainfall Happening Across the U.S., Study Finds"
"A new study from Northwestern University has found that it is raining more intensely in most regions of the U.S. In places that once received lighter rainfall, more recent decades have brought moderate to heavy rainfall, especially in the central and eastern parts of the country. Researchers studied rainfall in 17 regions around the U.S. and found heavier rainfall patterns in most of the regions they observed. They published their findings in the journal Geophysical Research Letters this month. The study compared precipitation intensity from 1991 to 2020 to precipitation in the years 1951 to 1980. The researchers compared observations of rainfall in more recent decades to historical precipitation data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s Global Historical Climatology Network database. Many regions, especially those east of the Rocky Mountains, are seeing harder rainfall each year. Precipitation east of the Rocky Mountains has seen about a 5% increase, although the researchers did not observe major intensity changes in rainfall on the Pacific Coast or over the Rocky Mountains."
"With Marine Power, It's Not the Size of Your Turbine, It's the Motion of the Ocean"
"A big chunk of our clean-energy pie will be wind and solar. Somewhat smaller slices will be geothermal and nuclear and hydropower. But the last part, maybe the last 10 percent or so, might come down to more niche technologies like hydrogen fuel cells and marine power. The latter represents the cutting edge of clean energy R&D, and it's primarily happening at the Department of Energy, where the Water Power Technologies Office is seeking to develop, test, and tinker with different devices until they're commercially viable, at which point private firms will take it away. In general, these devices fit into a few main categories: wave, tidal, river current, and gradients."