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Those of us who continue to be surprised by the Twins' 33-25 record and first place (by four games) standing in the AL Central should probably remember two things:
1 — This team did win the division in 2019 and 2020.
2 — Even if using the disastrous 73-89 season in 2021 as our reference point, this year's Twins underwent a pretty significant makeover in a short amount of time before the season began.
Holdovers have fueled some of the strong play, which includes a 3-2 mark as competition has improved in the last week. But newcomers have also played an outsized role, making this a good time to evaluate just what happened — the best and the worst — this past offseason to put the Twins in this position.
BEST MOVES
Blockbuster Yankees trade: This was the signature deal of the offseason not just because of its scope and impact but also because of how it influenced other deals.
The Twins traded third baseman Josh Donaldson, 24-hour Twin Isiah Kiner-Falefa and catcher Ben Rortvedt to the Yankees for catcher Gary Sanchez and infielder Gio Urshela.
Urshela has been one of the team's most consistent and available players, entering play Thursday with a .274 average, .729 OPS and 50 games played.
But it is Sanchez — .717 OPS, team-high 19 barrels, adequate defense — who has turned this from being a salary dump into a trade the Twins might have won simply on merit.
If Sanchez had been a disaster at or behind the plate, while Ryan Jeffers (who interrupted a season-long slump with a long homer Wednesday in the win over the Yankees) flailed, this trade and the Mitch Garver for Kiner-Falefa deals would look much different.
Carlos Correa signing: Shedding Donaldson's contract also allowed the Twins to pull off the stunner of the offseason. Even if Correa only stays for a year, his impact and production are undeniable. It was the sort of move that injects life into a clubhouse and adds credibility to a franchise.
Joe Smith signing: For all the consternation over how manager Rocco Baldelli has deployed his best relievers at times, the Twins bullpen has held up decently so far. Twins relievers enter Thursday with a combined ERA of 3.88, No. 14 in the majors. One anchor has been the veteran Smith, who didn't give up an earned run until almost June and still sports an ERA of just 2.00 while tying for the team lead with 22 appearances.
OK MOVE
Chris Archer signing: The Twins signed the veteran Archer to a one-year, $3.5 million deal in hopes of squeezing out some starts from the oft-injured righty.
They've clearly limited him in both pitch count and innings — he hasn't thrown more than 79 pitches in a game and has reached even five full innings just twice, including Wednesday's win over the Yankees — but his 44 1⁄3 innings and 11 starts have generally been effective given his 3.65 ERA.
INCOMPLETE MOVE
Sonny Gray trade: Gray has been terrific when healthy, posting a 2.41 ERA in seven starts and looking every bit like a top-of-the-rotation anchor. But he's already made two trips to the injured list. If he rebounds to make 24-26 starts at something approaching his early results, the Twins will be thrilled. But if injuries persist, the Twins will miss him a lot eventually and could regret giving up first-round pick Chase Petty to get him.
WORST MOVES
Taylor Rogers trade: The Twins should have quit while they were ahead. But right before the season started, they traded All-Star reliever Taylor Rogers to the Padres for reliever Emilio Pagan and starter Chris Paddack.
Paddack had a history of arm trouble and needed Tommy John surgery after just five starts for the Twins. Though he's under team control for the next two years after this, that's still not much immediate return on investment. Pagan has been shakily effective, with a 3.00 ERA but a 6.14 FIP suggestive of luck more than acumen.
Rogers has had a couple of rough outings lately but was dominant early in the year and has 18 saves. Imagining Rogers in the Twins bullpen with their other developing arms will only lead you to frustration.
Dylan Bundy signing: The Twins looked like they were onto something early, when Bundy won his first three starts by allowing just one run in 15 1⁄3 innings. But he has an 8.44 in his last six starts, all of them Twins losses, and the streak could reach seven against Gerrit Cole and the Yankees on Thursday night.
He's been positively Matt Shoemaker-esque, which is not a compliment. His one-year, $4 million deal isn't cost-prohibitive but it is not looking so far like money well spent.
