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"Allergy Season is Getting Worse — Thanks to Climate Change"
"If you're one of the millions of seasonal allergy sufferers in the United States, you might have noticed that your runny nose, itchy eyes and other symptoms are getting worse with each passing year. That's because climate change is causing plants to produce higher concentrations of pollen for longer periods of time, according to one NC State expert. Pollen is the fine powdery substance, typically yellow, produced by the male parts of a flower. It's carried by wind, water, insects and other animals to the female parts of the same flower, or a different flower of the same species, in order to produce viable seed. When dispersed into the air, however, pollen also sometimes enters the nose, mouth and eyes of humans, causing some to experience allergic reactions. Pollen production is staggered over the season. But recent research shows that compared with 30 years ago, pollen production has been extended by about a month, starting about 20 days earlier and ending 10 days later. This has given plants more time to reproduce, causing pollen production by some trees to rise by 21%. Scientists estimate that pollen production of some plant species could increase by 250% over the next 60 to 80 years. "
See more from North Carolina State University HERE:
Extended Weather Outlook
The weather outlook through the rest of the week and into the weekend ahead looks a little quiet to start but will turn more unsettled as we approach the weekend. A storm system will approach from the west and spread showers and a few thunderstorms across the Midwest through early next week. It won't be a complete washout, but it will be a little more unsettled through the first weekend of May.
Precipitation Outlook
Here's the total rainfall potential through early next week and amounts could approach 0.50" across parts of Central and Western Minnesota. Amounts may vary across the state, but it doesn't appear to be a bit soggy as we head into the weekend. Stay tuned...
Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Wednesday
The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Wednesday, May 3rd looks quite a bit nicer than it was earlier this week. Highs will approach the upper 60s, which is closer to average for early May with much lighter winds than we had Monday and Tuesday. We'll start off with sunnier skies and could perhaps see a few more clouds later in the day.
Weather Outlook on Wednesday
Temps on Wednesday will be closer to average in the Twin Cities with highs warming into the mid/upper 50s. However, readings across the Western part of the state could warm into the 70s, which will be nearly +5F to +15F above average for this time of the year.
Meteograms For Minneapolis
The hourly temps through the day Wednesday shows temps starting in the upper 30s in the morning and warming into the mid/upper 60s by the afternoon. It'll be mainly sunny with much lighter winds throughout the day. Northwesterly winds may only gust up into the 10mph to 15mph range, which will be significantly lighter than they were earlier this week.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
The 5 day temperature outlook for the Twin Cities looks quite a bit warmer than it has been over the last couple of weeks. We'll finally sneak up into the 60s and 70s over an extended period, which will actually closer to, if not slightly above average for early May.
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
Dry and mostly sunny skies will linger through much of midweek before rain and isolated thunderstorms chances move in late week and into the weekend ahead. The good news is that temperatures will be quite a bit warmer than it was earlier this week.
Extended Temperature Outlook
The NBM extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis looks much warmer than it has been with highs warming into the 60s and 70s through the 2nd week of May. We may be finally turning a corner and on our way to more spring-like weather, finally!
Ice Outs
According to the MN DNR, Lake Minnetonka is officially ICE OUT!! It happened on Wednesday, April 19th, which is a just about a week later than average. The earliest ice out was on March 11th, 1878, while the latest ice out was on May 5th, 2018. Ice outs will continue to creep north over the next several days and weeks. Many of the larger lakes in central and northern Minnesota have yet to go ice out, but it won't be long now...
See more from the MN DNR ice out page HERE:
Flood Outlook
According to the National Weather Service, out of 160 river gauges on the map below, 26 are currently in flood stage and still could be over the next several days. The good news is that many rivers have crested close to home with river levels dropping over the next several days.
Flood Waters Receding in Stillwater
Here's the river forecast for the St. Croix River at Stillwater. Major flooding has ended after reaching a crest of 89.26ft last week, which is the 7th highest crest on record there. Flood waters have officially fallen below flood stage and will continue to fall over the next several days.
See more from the river gauge HERE:
Water Levels Receding at the Mississippi River in St. Paul
The Mississippi River at St. Paul reached a crest of 18.24ft last week and was the 11th highest on record. Minor flooding will continue through midweek, but will fall out of flood stage later this week.
Snowfall So Far This Season
Snowfall amounts are quite impressive across the region with several locations running well above average. Duluth has seen nearly 140" of snow, which is the snowiest season on record! The Twin Cities has seen more than 90" of snow, which is the 3rd snowiest season on record. Interestingly, Bismarck North Dakota is only 0.5" away from being the snowiest season on record as well! Most climate sites around the Midwest are well above average for snowfall this season with a surplus of more than 50" in Duluth and Bismarck. The Twin Cities is nearly 40" above average this season as well.
Snowiest Season on Record in Duluth
The NWS in Duluth has seen more than 140" of snow this season, which is the snowiest season on record. This beats the previous record of 135.4" set during the winter of 1995-96. Interestingly, 1996 was the last year that Lake Superior completely froze over. Note that there have only been 19 seasons on record that have recorded 100" or more in Duluth.
3rd Snowiest Season on Record in Minneapolis
It's been an impressive snow season in the Twin Cities as well with the MSP Airport picking up more than 90" of snow, which is good enough for the 3rd snowiest season on record. We need less than 5.0" into the 2nd spot and less than 9" to get into the top spot. If you're wondering, the latest measurable snow (0.1") on record at MSP was on May 24th set in 1925. The snow season isn't quite over just yet... Stay tuned.
Weather Outlook
A large area of low pressure around the Great Lakes region and Northeast will finally swirl off the east coast through the 2nd half of the week, which will allow winds to finally subside. An area of high pressure will nose into the Midwest and Great Lakes with quieter/drier weather before more unsettled weather slowly settles in as we approach the first weekend of May.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows warmer-than-average temperatures settling in across the eastern half of the country as we approach mid-month. Meanwhile, folks in the Southwestern US, including in California will be cooler than average.
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows more active weather possible across the nation and especially the High Plains and the Gulf Coast States.
Atmospheric Perfection Today, 70F Thursday
By Paul Douglas
True story: tropical storm force wind gusts in recent days have blown all our bugs into Kansas! I read it on the interwebs - must be true. The massive cyclonic whirlpool of wind-whipped rain and snow stalled over the Great Lakes for 4 days (20" snow at Marquette, Michigan!) is finally breaking down, and a bubble of high pressure drifting overhead will offer light winds and a perfect-azure-blue sky today, with temperatures poking well into the 60s. I have every intention of calling in sick Thursday (Doppler Flu - a terrible malady) with afternoon temperatures flirting with 70F. Rest and rehabilitation on the deck sound like a wise course of action.
A thundershower may bubble up Friday night into Saturday, with heavier, widespread showers and T-storms late Sunday into Tuesday. ECMWF (European) model guidance prints out 1-2" rain early next week, with some 2-3+" amounts for southwestern Minnesota.
Temperatures near normal? Check. Obligatory spring showers. Check. Storms mysteriously attracted to weekends? Check.
Extended Forecast
WEDNESDAY: Sunny with light winds. Winds: W 7-12. High 68.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy & quiet. Winds: SW 5-10. Low: 47.
THURSDAY: Mild sunshine, close to perfect. Winds: S 7-12. High 71.
FRIDAY: Lukewarm sun, nighttime T-storm. Winds: E 10-15. Wake-up: 52. High 70.
SATURDAY: Few showers, possible thunder. Winds: SE 10-20. Wake-up: 53. High: 65.
SUNDAY: Some sun, showers and storms late. Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up: 56. High: 70.
MONDAY: Showers and storms, locally heavy rain. Winds: SW 10-20. Wake-up: 55. High: 66.
TUESDAY: Damp with lingering showers. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 48. High: 55.
This Day in Weather History
May 3rd
1905: A 'mixed bag of weather' occurs in Minnesota. Western Minnesota is pelted with hail, while snow falls over the Arrowhead.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
May 3rd
Average High: 64F (Record: 93F set in 1949)
Average Low: 45F (Record: 18F set in 1967)
Record Rainfall: 1.72" set in 1912
Record Snowfall: 0.5" set in 2013
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
May 3rd
Sunrise: 5:59am
Sunset: 8:20pm
Hours of Daylight: ~14 hours & 20 minutes
Daylight GAINED since yesterday: +2 Minutes & 40 Seconds
Daylight GAINED since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 5 hour & 34 minutes
Moon Phase for May 3rd at Midnight
1.4 Days Until Full "Flower" Moon
"May 5 at 12:34 p.m. CDT - Flowers are abundant everywhere. It was also known as the Full Corn Planting Moon or the Milk Moon. or Antarctica, Oceania, Australasia, Asia, Europe, Africa, South Georgia and the South Sandwich Islands, a penumbral lunar eclipse also occurs on this night. Within an hour of either side of the moment of maximum eclipse (17:24 GMT in which nearly 97% of the moon will be inside the penumbral shadow) a subtle darkening may appear along the moon's upper limb. But unfortunately, this eclipse is not visible from North America."
National High Temps on Wednesday
Temperatures on Wednesday will be quite a bit cooler than average east of the Mississippi River Valley in the wake of a slow and stubborn area of low pressure in the Northeastern US. Farther west, a ridge of high pressure is keeping much of the Central US and Intermountain West dry and sunny with warmer-than-average temperatures. It'll be cooler in California once again, where more Pacific precipitation will move in.
National Weather Outlook Wednesday
The weather outlook on Wednesday will be wet, cool, and windy from the Great Lakes to the Northeast. Areas of rain and thunder will be possible across parts of the Plains and across parts of the West Coast.
National Weather Outlook
An intense area of low pressure will finally move off the East Coast later this week, which will allow cool, wet and windy weather to finally subside. Meanwhile, weather conditions will turn a little more unsettled across the Western half of the nation as a slow-moving storm system begins to slide east. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across the Plains and Southern US over the next few days with locally heavy rainfall potential as well.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, the extended precipitation outlook shows heavier precipitation across parts of the Central US and also in the Pacific Northwest.
Snowfall Potential
According to the ECMWF (European model), snowfall accumulations will wrap up near the Great Lakes Region, but we'll see quite a bit more snowfall in the high elevations in the Western US once again.
Climate Stories
"Epic snowpack upends rhythms of life for many species in Sierra Nevada range"
The Big Melt is finally underway in the Sierra Nevada range, and soon there will be few wild places beyond the reach of water sounds: dripping, gurgling and roaring as runoff flows from lofty peaks to sage plains below. But the whiplash change from extreme drought to epic snowpack is having very different consequences for a variety of species.
"In the ever changing ebb and flow of water in California, no given year is great for all species," said Joshua Viers, a professor at UC Merced specializing in the hydrology of the Sierra Nevada. "But in a year like this one, which is exceptional by all measures, we are looking at a resetting of the dynamics of the entire ecological canvas from the redwoods to the desert."
"How our limited understanding of the atmosphere drags down wind energy"
"The wind blows, it hits and turns a propellor, a generator rotates, and energy is extracted. Wind power seems pretty simple. But there's a major complicating fact: Our atmosphere is fluid. It flows in extraordinarily complicated patterns, like cream in coffee or oil on water, that are nearly impossible to predict. A recently published research study models the turbulent flow of the atmosphere through an array of wind turbines, demonstrating that certain realistic atmospheric conditions can cause the power output of some turbines to drop by as much as 30% when compared to simpler predictions."
"See Rushing Waterfalls and Submerged Roads as California Floods"
"After a wild winter of more than a dozen huge storms and record-breaking snowfall in the Sierra Nevadas, California's big flood season is just getting started. Last week, the National Weather Service predicted that the Merced River could flood parts of Yosemite National Park, thanks to a combination of unseasonably warm temperatures and melting snowpack. Yosemite officials announced that the park would close in anticipation of the flooding. The Merced River runs through some of the park's most popular areas. Early Monday morning, river levels peaked at 9.86 feet (3 meters), just below official flood levels and about a foot less than predicted, and are expected to continue to decline throughout the week, according to data from the National Weather Service. Because flows ended up being lower than expected, the park reopened with limited hours Sunday and will reopen in full on Monday. Visitors were warned on social media to be alert to conditions in the park and to expect heavy traffic congestion and limited hiking."