Paul Douglas On Weather
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Cool & Quiet Weekend Ahead

Here's the weather outlook from AM Sunday to PM Friday, which shows fairly quiet weather in place across much of the Upper Midwest. There's a slight chance of shower mid to late week across parts of the Midwest.

Precipitation Potential Through Next Week

Here's the extended precipitation outlook through next week. Precipitation amounts look fairly minimal across much of the state.

Precipitation Since May 1st

The precipitation outlook through the month of May looks fairly impressive across parts of the state with St. Cloud seeing nearly 6" of rain so far this month, which is the 3rd wettest start to any May on record.

Precipitation Since May 1st Departure From Average

Precipitation Since January 1st

The last several weeks have been quite active across the Midwest and precipitation amounts have been fairly appreciative in some locations. Note that the Twin Cities has seen nearly 10.60" of liquid so far this year, which is the 22nd wettest start to any year on record in the Twin Cities. St. Cloud is the 7th wettest start to any year on record.

Precipitation Departure From Average Since January 1st

Minnesota Drought Update

Thanks to above average precipitation so far this year, we've wiped out much of the drought that was in place to start the year. In fact, as of early January, nearly 10% of the state in northern Minnesota was considered in a severe drought. Now, only 3% of the state is considered to be abnormally dry.

Status of Spring

"May 18, 2022 - Spring leaf out has now arrived at all but the highest elevation locations in the West. Our spring leaf anomaly compares the arrival of spring leaf out this year to a long-term average of 1991-2020. In the East, spring leaf out is patchy this year, arriving days to weeks late across much of the Southeast and upper Midwest, and arriving days to weeks early across the southern part of the Midwest, the Southern Appalachians, the mid-Atlantic, and the Northeast. In western states, spring leaf out is also patchy, arriving a week late in some locations and over a month early in others. Parts of Montana and South Dakota are 2-3 weeks early. Spring bloom is also spreading north, arriving days to a week late in Texas and Florida and days to several weeks early in California. Spring bloom is over a week early in parts of Georgia, the Carolinas, and Virginia. The mid-Atlantic is patchy, several days early in some locations and several days late in others. The southern part of the Midwest is several days to a week late."

See more from NPN HERE:

Weather Outlook For Sunday

Here's the weather outlook for Sunday, which shows quiet weather in place, but high temps will be well below average with readings only warming to near 60F.

Meteograms for Minneapolis

The hourly temps for Minneapolis on Sunday shows temperatures starting in the mid 40s in the morning and warming to near 60F by the afternoon. Northwesterly winds will gusty around 15mph to 20mph.

Weather Outlook on Sunday

Temps around the region on Sunday will warm into the 50s to near 60F, which will be nearly -10F to -15F below average.

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows temps running well below average through the weekend and into early next week. Highs this weekend will be nearly -5F to -10 below average for much of the week ahead.

Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended weather outlook over the next 7 days shows very chilly temps in place through the week ahead. However, we'll gradually warm over the next few days with 70s likely by late week.

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

According to the ECMWF & GFS extended temperature outlook, temps will be quite chilly through the weekend and early next week. Readings will gradually warm next week with highs closing in on 80F by next weekend.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows above average temps across the eastern two-thirds of the nation. Meanwhile, folks in the Northwestern US will be cooler than average.

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows a better chance of active weather across the northern tier of the nation.

Acceptable Hail Etiquette on Area Highways?
By Paul Douglas

Where does Minnesota Nice go while driving through a hailstorm? "Paul, I know to go to the basement during a tornado threat, but what about hail storms in my vehicle?" It's every man for himself (or herself).

Last Thursday's "hailers" (up to half dollar size east metro) saw motorists ducking under bridge overpasses to avoid hail damage, leaving a line of sitting ducks in their wake. Finding a parking ramp can lower risk, but there are times you just have to pull over and pray your insurance premiums are paid up. Not much you can do.

With any luck there is no frost on your begonias this morning, although frost advisories are posted for western Minnesota. Expect more sunshine and a whiff of early October in the air - today is as cool as it's going to be anytime soon.

A storm tracking from Kansas City to Chicago will push rain bands into Minnesota Wednesday, but the big story is a warming trend, with 70s by late week; maybe 80s on Sunday. T-storms may flareup on Memorial Day. Sounds right for a holiday.

Extended Forecast

SUNDAY: Partly sunny and cool. Winds: NW 8-13. High: 57.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear and cool. Winds: WNW 5. Low: 43.

MONDAY: Periods of sunshine, a bit milder. Winds: S 8-13. High: 62.

TUESDAY: Intervals of sun, quiet. Winds: E 7-12. Wake-up: 45. High: 62.

WEDNESDAY: Cooler with rain. Winds: NE 10-20. Wake-up: 50. High: 57.

THURSDAY: Damp start, then some PM sunshine. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 48. High: 65.

FRIDAY: Sunny and warmer. Winds: W 8-13. Wake-up: 53. High: 77.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny, isolated T-storm. Winds: SE 10-20. Wake-up: 54. High: 78.

This Day in Weather History

May 22nd

2011: A strong EF-1 tornado with wind speeds up to 110 mph strikes north Minneapolis, causing extensive tree and structural damage. The tornado touched down in St. Louis Park and moved through north Minneapolis, lasting 14.25 miles before dissipating in Blaine after causing minor damage to the Anoka County Airport. The tornado reached a peak width of 1/2 mile.

2001: Record cold high temperatures are set in over 30 cities in Minnesota, including a chilly 47 in the Twin Cities and 39 at Grand Rapids and Pine River. Half of an inch of snow falls at International Falls.

1925: Temperatures take a nosedive from 100 to 32 degrees in 36 hours at New Ulm and Tracy.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

May 22nd

Average High: 71F (Record: 99F set in 1925)

Average Low: 52F (Record: 32F set in 1917)

Record Rainfall: 1.20" set in 1936

Record Snowfall:

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

May 22nd

Sunrise: 5:36am

Sunset: 8:42pm

Hours of Daylight: ~15 hours & 3 minutes

Daylight GAINED since yesterday: ~ 2 minute & 00 seconds

Daylight GAINED since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 6 Hour & 17 Minutes

Moon Phase for May 21st at Midnight

0.5 Days Before Last Quarter Moon

See more from HERE:

National High Temps Saturday

The weather outlook on Sunday shows temps well above average in the Eastern US. Meanwhile folks in the northern US will be well below average with snow along the Front Range.

National Weather Outlook

Here's the national weather outlook through early next week. Unsettled weather will be in place across the central and eastern US with a few strong storms possible.

Extended Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, areas of heavier precipitation will be found across parts of the central and southern US.

Climate Stories

"Coral Reefs Are Struggling, but There Is Some Good News"

"The United Nations recently released a sweeping report on the health of the planet's coral. Healthy reef cover—where squishy polyps and colorful algae coat the white skeletons of hard coral—has dropped 14 percent in the past decade. Coastal development, ocean plastic pollution and overfishing all take their toll, allowing destructive algae to proliferate. But warming oceans, which bleach coral, are the biggest threat to reefs worldwide. The all too familiar story has a few bright spots, however. Coral rebounded after major bleaching events in 1998 and 2005, showing recovery is possible. And the most biodiverse coral in the world—the so-called Coral Triangle in the western Pacific Ocean—is holding its ground."

See more from Scientific American HERE:

"Bad news for the 2022 hurricane season: The Loop Current, a fueler of monster storms, is looking a lot like it did in 2005, the year of Katrina"

"The Atlantic hurricane season starts on June 1, and the Gulf of Mexico is already warmer than average. Even more worrying is a current of warm tropical water that is looping unusually far into the Gulf for this time of year, with the power to turn tropical storms into monster hurricanes. It's called the Loop Current, and it's the 800-pound gorilla of Gulf hurricane risks. When the Loop Current reaches this far north this early in the hurricane season – especially during what's forecast to be a busy season – it can spell disaster for folks along the Northern Gulf Coast, from Texas to Florida. If you look at temperature maps of the Gulf of Mexico, you can easily spot the Loop Current. It curls up through the Yucatan Channel between Mexico and Cuba, into the Gulf of Mexico, and then swings back out through the Florida Strait south of Florida as the Florida Current, where it becomes the main contributor to the Gulf Stream."

See more from The Conversation HERE:

"Infrared Breakthrough Could Lead to Solar Power at Night"

"The sun's enormous energy may soon be harnessed in the dark of night following a significant advance in thermal capture technology. Solar radiation heats the earth's crust significantly during daylight hours, but that energy is lost into the coldness of space when the sun goes down. Now, researchers within the School of Photovoltaic and Renewable Energy Engineering at UNSW Sydney have successfully tested a device capable of converting infrared heat into electrical power. The team, including members of the ARC Centre of Excellence in Exciton Science, used a power-generation device called a 'thermo-radiative diode', which is similar to the technology in night-vision goggles."

See more from Extinction Science HERE:

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