Paul Douglas On Weather
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Thursday: Sunny And Hot Again, Late Day/Overnight Storms

Forecast radar from 4 PM Thursday through 7 AM Friday.

While most of Thursday will be calm across the state, we will watch the potential for multiple areas of thunderstorms to erupt near the dinner hour across central and northern Minnesota, lasting into the overnight before fizzling out by Friday morning. A few of these storms could be strong.

Due to the threat of mainly large hail and damaging winds with these storms late Thursday into Thursday Night, a Marginal Risk (threat level 1 of 5) is in place across central and northern Minnesota.

So we will watch the potential of a few storms late in the day into the overnight hours on Thursday across Minnesota. Otherwise, much of the morning into early/mid-afternoon should be quiet with mainly sunny skies and just a few passing clouds. Highs will be 10-15 degrees above average across much of the state, climbing in the 80s and 90s.

The "good" news about the heat on Thursday is that we won't have as much humidity out there, so it won't feel as stifling out as it did on Sunday and Monday. With dew points in the 50s, the feels-like temperature will be fairly close to the actual temperature.

In the metro, temperatures will climb into the 90s Thursday afternoon on the back of breezy south-southwest winds gusting up to 30 mph. Sunny skies are expected, with any rain chances mainly holding off until the overnight hours.


Strong Storms Possible Friday As Well

As we head into Friday, we will watch an isolated shower or storm chances throughout the day, mainly in northern and far southern Minnesota. A better chance of storms on Friday will be into the evening and overnight hours as a cold front moves into the state. Highs on Friday will generally be in the 80s statewide with 70s along the North Shore.

A few of those storms late Friday into Friday Night could be on the strong side, with a Marginal Risk (threat level 1 of 5) in place across the western two-thirds of the state. Damaging winds and large hail will be the greatest risks.


Cooler Into The Weekend

As we slide toward the weekend, temperatures will (thankfully) be on the decrease thanks to that cold front moving through Friday Night. While I think most of any rain activity should be during the morning hours Saturday, I can't rule out an isolated PM thunderstorm. Highs for the first half of the weekend will make it into the low 80s. Sunnier skies are expected Sunday with mid-70s for highs. Both days will feature breezy conditions - Saturday out of the west-northwest gusting to 25 mph, and out of the northwest Sunday gusting to 30 mph.


Warm Start To June

With only seven highs below average so far this month (through Tuesday), our overall average temperature is over 3F degrees above average so far. This is the 17th warmest start to the month on record (with 2021 claiming the top spot at 78.0F).

The heat earlier this week helped add to our 90-degree day count for 2022. We are now up to six 90F+ days so far this year, four of which have occurred in June (the other two in May).

The six 90-degree days we have observed so far (through Wednesday) are tied for the sixth-most on record to date for MSP. Most recently we've had 11 through this date last year, 10 in 2007, 8 in 2018, and 7 in 2012.


Dangerous of Summer Camping In The Woods
By Paul Douglas

As an Eagle Scout I have vivid, vaguely terrifying memories of camping in the woods, trees swaying wildly as severe thunderstorms roared overhead. Wondering where the safest spot to ride out a storm might be. Certainly not a sleeping bag with a flimsy tent above my head.

There is no perfect answer. Avoiding trees? Good luck. I tell campers to try and ride out inevitable summer T-storms in a nearby restroom, or in their vehicle nearby. The most important thing is situational awareness. Knowing what county you're in, and keeping up on NWS warnings is mission-critical. A portable NOAA Weather Radio can also be a cheap form of life insurance.

Low 90s return today but there won't be as much water in the air as there was on Monday, so the heat index won't be outrageous. A few T-showers Saturday mark the leading edge of more fresh, Canadian air. Expect a cooling breeze Sunday (it may feel like early September), followed by a string of 80s next week. More heat waves later in July? At this point I'd count on it.


Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

THURSDAY: Hot sunshine. Wake up 70. High 93. Chance of precipitation 60%. 10%. Wind SW 15-25 mph.

FRIDAY: Sticky sun, isolated T-shower. Wake up 73. High 90. Chance of precipitation 60%. 30%. Wind S 8-13 mph.

SATURDAY: More numerous showers, T-storms. Wake up 71. High 85. Chance of precipitation 60%. 70%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.

SUNDAY: Some sun with a cool breeze. Wake up 61. High 78. Chance of precipitation 60%. 20%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.

MONDAY: Bright sun, pretty spectacular. Wake up 58. High 81. Chance of precipitation 60%. 0%. Wind SW 7-12 mph.

TUESDAY: Some sun, stray T-storm. Wake up 67. High 87. Chance of precipitation 60%. 40%. Wind SW 8-13 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Better chance of showers, T-storms. Wake up 62. High 82. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind SE 5-10 mph.


Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
June 23rd

*Length Of Day: 15 hours, 36 minutes, and 38 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 8 seconds

*When Do We Drop Below 15 Hours Of Daylight?: July 24 (14 hours, 58 minutes, 52 seconds)
*When Does The Sun Start Rising At/After 6 AM?: August 3rd (6:00 AM)
*Latest Sunset?: June 20 - July 2 (9:03 PM)


This Day in Weather History
June 23rd

2002: Just a few weeks after torrential rains hit the area, another round of heavy rain hits northern Minnesota. This time up to eight inches would fall in a two-day period in parts of Mahnomen and St. Louis Counties.


National Weather Forecast

On Thursday, a frontal boundary in the Northeast will bring the threat of heavy showers and thunderstorms. Scattered storms will be possible at times in the central United States. Meanwhile, monsoonal moisture in the Southwest will bring storm chances to the region.

The heaviest rain through the end of the work week will fall in two areas - one in the Southwest due to monsoonal moisture, and another in parts of the Northeast.


Deadly South Asia floods leave families trapped without food and water

More from the Washington Post: "When the floodwaters came, they swept away everything — furniture, clothes, even drums full of rice. Mainul Haque had never seen anything like it. "We were not ready for this kind of flooding," the 28-year-old said. "We could not save anything." Haque is a resident of Cholita Bari village in Bangladesh's Sylhet district, one of the areas hit hardest by devastating monsoon floods that have swallowed villages, washed away bridges, snapped electricity lines and displaced millions. Home to one-fifth of the world's population, South Asia is increasingly vulnerable to climate change. While annual monsoon rains are crucial for the agrarian economies of the region, they have become ever more unpredictable. As temperatures rise, the monsoon is now marked by short spells of very heavy rainfall, which can trigger deadly, fast-moving floods."

2021 heat wave created 'perfect storm' for shellfish die-off

More from the University of Washington: "It's hard to forget the excruciating heat that blanketed the Pacific Northwest in late June 2021. Temperatures in Oregon, Washington and British Columbia soared to well above 100 degrees Fahrenheit, with Seattle setting an all-time heat record of 108 degrees on June 28. During the heat wave, also called a heat dome, scientists and community members alike noticed a disturbing uptick of dying and dead shellfish on some beaches in Washington and British Columbia, both in the Salish Sea and along the outer coast. The observers quickly realized they were living through an unprecedented event and they organized to document the shellfish die-offs as they happened in real time."

Solar developers pledge $6B for made-in-America panels

More from E&E News: "Several large U.S. solar developers have announced a new coalition that will buy up to $6 billion in made-in-America panels, in a move that could more than double the country's panel-manufacturing capacity. The new US Solar Buyer Consortium said yesterday it had opened a request for proposals from U.S. manufacturers who could supply up to 7 gigawatts of solar panels per year, starting in 2024. That amount is well beyond the 4.8 GW of panels produced last year in the United States, according to National Renewable Energy Laboratory estimates. And it is likely greater than what President Joe Biden has sought to bring online using the federal government's buying power."


Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).

- D.J. Kayser