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Remembering October 2020
1 year ago this month, the Twin Cities experienced its snowiest October on record with 9.3" of snow falling at the MSP Airport. The month started on a mild note with highs topping out at 80F on the 6th and 9th, but quickly took a turn during the 2nd half of the month. By October 18th high temps only warmed into the 30s and by the 20th, 7.9" of snow at the MSP Airport, which was the 2nd snowiest October day on record at the MSP Airport. The snowiest October day was on Halloween 1991 when 8.2" of snow fell.
October 2020 - Snowiest October on Record at MSP
The list below shows the top 20 snowiest Octobers on record at the MSP Airport. Note that last October 2020, we picked up 9.3", which was the snowiest on record, even beating the 8.2" that fell on Halloween in 1991.
Daily Weather Data For October 2020
Here is a more comprehensive chart of daily weather data for October 2020. Note that highs reach 80F two times on the 6th and 9th, but fell into the 30s by the 18th. On the 20th, MSP picked up 7.9" of snow, another 0.8" on the 23rd and another 0.4" on the 25th for a grand total of 9.3" for the month! The coldest temp recorded was 16F on the 27th, which tied for the 8th coldest temp ever recorded during the month of October. The coldest temp was 10F set on October 30th, 1925.
Nearing Peak Color at McCarthy Beach State Park
MN Fall Color Tracker
According to the MN DNR, much of the state is already experiencing minor changes in the fall color. Keep in mind that much of the summer was hot and dry, so some of the color won't be as vibrant this year. With that being said, there are already spots across the northern part of the state that are at peak color right now! See the latest update from the MN DNR HERE:
Fall Color Depends on Weather
Ever wonder why some years, fall color is so vibrant vs some years, fall color tends to be a bit more dull? Val Cervenka, Coordinator from the DNR Forest Health Program, shares how the weather can play a roll in those fall colors. Due to the hot and dry summer that most of experienced, it is likely that fall foliage could be less impressive this year with more tans, bronzes and auburns.
Typical Peak Dates For Fall Color
According to the MN DNR, fall colors typically start to peak across the northern part of the state in mid/late September. Peak color typically arrives in central and southern Minnesota late September and into early/mid October. Note that over the next several weeks, you'll notice some big changes in the landscape as we head deeper into fall.
Simulated Radar From AM Monday to PM Friday
The simulated radar from AM Monday to PM Friday across the Midwest shows fairly quiet conditions much of the week ahead. There could be a few showers late in the week closer to home, but it appears that we'll be settling in for another stretch of mostly dry and sunny weather over the next several days.
Drought Update For Minnesota
According to the US Drought Monitor, nearly 24% of the state is still considered to be in an extreme drought, those locations are located in the northern part of the state. Nearly 50% of the state is still under a severe drought (again, mainly up north) and about 76% percent of the state is in a moderate drought, which includes the Twin Cities.
Precipitation Departure From Average Since January 1st
Here's a look at the precipitation departure from average since January 1st and note that most locations are still several inches below average. Some of the biggest deficits include Bismarck, ND (5th driest January 1st - October 1st on record) and Minot, ND (1st driest such period on record). The Twin Cities The metro is still nearly -5.00" below average since January 1st, which is the 56th driest January 1st - October 1st on record. Meanwhile, Wausau, WI is nearly +10" above average precipitation for the year and is sitting at their 3rd wettest start to any year on record.
Monday Weather Outlook
Monday will be another dry and sunny day across the region with few clouds and mild temps. Highs will warm into the low/mid 70s, which will be well above average for early October.
Meteograms for Minneapolis
Here's the hourly weather outlook for Minneapolis on Monday, which shows dry, sunny skies in place with temps starting from the mid 50s in the morning and topping out in the lower 70s in the afternoon. Winds will generally be light at 5-10mph out of the north.
Weather Outlook For Monday
Highs on Monday will still be nearly +10F to +15F above average with readings warming into the 70s and lower 80s across the state. There may be a few clouds here and there, but it'll be a bright and sunny across much of the Upper Midwest.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended temperature outlook through the first full week of October shows temps running well above average with highs warming into the low/mid 70s, which is more typical of mid September. Again, much of the week will be dry with only a slight chance late in the week/weekend ahead. Stay tuned...
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
Active Tropics Continue
We're past the official peak of the Atlantic Hurricane season, but things are still quite active. Note that our latest storms, Sam and Victor are well out to sea and no threat to the US Mainland. NOAA's NHC is watching a new wave located near the Bahamas that has a low probability of tropical formation over the next 5 days as it drifts NW.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows warmer than average temps in the eastern half of the nation with cooler than average temps across the western US.
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, there is an increased chance of precipitation across the northern tier of the nation, which includes folks from the Pacific Northwest to the Upper Midwest. As we approach mid October, there could be better chances of rain closer to home. Stay tuned...
New Tools Democratize Meteorology
By Paul Douglas
"The Plan is...to create a plan!" We can't yet do anything about the weather, but now we all have tools to adjust our plans, based on current and future weather.
We walk around with little supercomputers in our pockets (smartphones) that can display Doppler radar, allowing us to time when the showers will end and it's safe to move the party outside.
Hundreds of websites, most of them free, display weather model output (except for the pricy ECMWF, the European model) so consumers can play armchair meteorologist and make their own prediction about an upcoming storm. Meteorology, for better or worse, has been democratized.
On Sunday the metro area was right "on the line": clouds east metro, lukewarm sun west metro. The way I rationalize this? Clouds kept temperatures cooler for Twin City Marathon runners. Yep.
Low to mid 70s prevail all this week. Atlantic moisture reaches Minnesota Thursday with showers. I see a conga-line of heavier rain storms by mid-month and highs in the 50s within 2 weeks.
Extended Forecast
MONDAY: Sunny and perfect. Winds: NE 5-10. High: 73.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear and quiet. Winds: NE 5. Low: 54.
TUESDAY: Mix of clouds and sunshine. Winds: SE 5-10. High: 74.
WEDNESDAY: More clouds, still balmy. Winds: SE 7-12. Wake-up: 59. High: 72.
THURSDAY: A fine spring day. Few showers. Winds: SE 8-13. Wake-up: 60. High: 73.
FRIDAY: Some sun, chance of a T-shower. Winds: S 8-13. Wake-up: 62. High: 75.
SATURDAY: Heavier, more widespread T-storms. Winds: S 10-15. Wake-up: 61. High: 72.
SUNDAY: Showers taper, slow PM clearing. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 57. High: 65.
This Day in Weather History
October 4th
2005: Widespread heavy rain falls in Minnesota. 4.61 inches of rain falls in the Minneapolis area, 3.42 inches is recorded in St. Cloud, 2.28 inches in Redwood Falls, 2.98 inches in New London, and 3.23 inches in Buffalo.
1939: A storm dumps 2.16 inches of rain at Fairmont.
1922: A record high of 89 is set in Minneapolis.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
October 4th
Average High: 64F (Record: 89F set in 1922)
Average Low: 44F (Record: 24F set in 1935)
Record Rainfall: 4.61" set in 2005
Record Snowfall: Trace set in 1935
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
October 4th
Sunrise: 7:15am
Sunset: 6:47pm
Hours of Daylight: ~11 hours & 32 minutes
Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 3 minute & 5 seconds
Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 20th): ~4 Hour & 5 Minutes
Moon Phase for October 4th at Midnight
1.2 Days Before New Moon
What's in the Night Sky?
"Moon and Venus in October 2021 - The brightest planet, Venus, has been in the west after sunset for some months. Now, one of northern summer's most beloved stars, Antares in Scorpius, is near Venus in the western twilight. And, beginning around October 7, 2021 – or perhaps more realistically for Northern Hemisphere viewers, October 8 – you will see the young moon return to the evening sky to sweep past Venus over several evenings. Their exact conjunction will take place on October 9 around 19 UTC. That's when Venus and the moon will have the same right ascension (comparable to earthly longitude) on the sky's dome. But don't let that date or time worry you. Watch for the moon and Venus on all of these evenings. Just be sure to catch them soon after sunset. They'll quickly follow the sun below the western horizon."
National High Temps Monday
The weather outlook on Monday shows above average temps across much of the nation with lingering showers and storms in the southern US and east of the Mississippi River.
National Weather Outlook
The national weather outlook through Tuesday shows a slow moving storm system pushing east of the Mississippi River with heavier rains along the East Coast. Scattered showers and storms with locally heavy rainfall will also develop in the Desert Southwest as an area of low pressure moves in from the Eastern Pacific.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center heavier precipitation potential will be found in the eastern half of the country and especially in the Southeast, where some 2" to 4" tallies can't be ruled out. Also note that there appears to be a chance of precipitation across parts of the Western US, which will be very welcomed.
Climate Stories
"US inks $20 million deal to launch high-tech weather satellites in space"
"The United States is aiming to launch a group of small satellites to fill a critical gap in the ability to foresee precipitation dangers, like the deluge that overwhelmed Northeastern cities at the start of September. The US Air Force announced Thursday a nearly $20 million contract with Tomorrow.io to develop and deploy an entire constellation of small satellites equipped with advanced radar to measure precipitation from space. "This satellite constellation partnership with Tomorrow.io will fill critical weather sensing gaps and give Air Force Weather operators the global missions they support vastly improved awareness of current and forecasted mission-limiting weather conditions," said John Dreher, chief of the weather systems branch at Hanscom Air Force Base in Massachusetts. Currently, there is only a single satellite equipped with that capability among the more than 3,000 active satellites orbiting the Earth."
"Why climate change makes fall foliage harder to spot"
"A warmer climate can also brings invasive pests, the spread of new tree species, and diseases – all factors that could make for less vibrant fall colors in the U.S., scientists say. Fewer colorful leaves could also affect the economy of states that depend on fall tourism. Droughts that cause leaves to turn brown and wither before they can reach peak color. Heat waves prompting leaves to fall before autumn even arrives. Extreme weather events like hurricanes that strip trees of their leaves altogether. For a cheery autumnal activity, leaf peeping is facing some serious threats from the era of climate change. Leaf peeping, the practice of traveling to watch nature display its fall colors, is a beloved annual activity in many corners of the country, especially New England and New York. But recent seasons have been disrupted by weather conditions there and elsewhere, and the trend is likely to continue as the planet warms, said arborists, conservationists, and ecologists."
See more from CS Monitor HERE:
"These 7 Cities Embrace Winter Like Nowhere Else"
"From Reykjavík to Minneapolis, winter isn't just tolerated here, it's celebrated. Imagine a freezing city in the dead of winter. But instead of people tucked away inside and events and gatherings canceled until the snow melts, the city brings life to the coldest season of the year by throwing parties around fire pits, holding outdoor concerts under twinkle lights, and encouraging its residents and visitors to get outside on ice skates, bikes, and cross-country skis. These cities around the world celebrate the chillier months in a big way, proving that frigid weather doesn't have to mean being shut in. From downtown Denver, you can see the snowcapped Rocky Mountains towering on the horizon to the west. A love of winter runs deep here. From ski-conditioning classes held outdoors at Red Rocks Amphitheater to a Midwinter Bluegrass Festival in February, there's no shortage of things to be excited about during the colder months. To get people exploring downtown during the season, the city sets up a two-mile parade of lit-up floats, plus outdoor scavenger hunts, with prizes for those who successfully make their way around Denver's art, landmarks, and history."
See more from Outside Online HERE:
"Climate change: COP26 is the biggest conference in the world. Here's why it matters"
"The planet, you've likely heard, isn't doing so well. The latest report from the United Nations' chief climate body, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, shows global temperatures are very likely to rise 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels in the next few decades. Human-generated greenhouse gas emissions are unequivocally the cause. Increasing temperatures, scientists have shown, will see more extreme weather events occurring more often — more hurricanes, more flooding, more fire, more drought — and result in a host of knock-on effects that threaten ecosystems, livelihoods and life as we know it. Unless nations take drastic action to wean themselves off fossil fuels in the coming decade. That's why November's UN Climate Change Conference, COP26, is being hailed as "the world's best last chance" to get the climate emergency under control. To ensure temperature change remains "well below" the 2 degrees Celsius agreed to by UN signatories in the Paris Agreement in 2015, countries need to act fast and double down on commitments to reach net zero emissions."