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Fall Color Update
It's that time of the year again for fall colors and the MN DNR has their fall color finder up and running. Much of the state is still color free, but there are a few colors popping up here and there.
Average Fall Color
The MN DNR has put together a nice graphic that shows typical dates for peak fall color. The northern par of the state starts to peak during the 2nd half of September into early October. Meanwhile, folks in the central part of the state and into the metro typically don't see peak color until the end of September into the middle part of October. It won't be long now - enjoy!
Average First Frost For MSP
Here's the 30 year average for the first frost in Minneapolis, which lands on October 13th. Last year (2021) the first frost was on October 23rd. If you look at the full MSP record, which dates back to 1873, the latest frost was November 18th back in 2016, while the earliest frost was September 3rd back in 1974.
First Measurable Snow at MSP
Here's the average first measurable snowfall (0.01") at MSP over the last 30 years, which lands on November 6th. Last year, MSP had its first measurable snow on November 13th. The last was on December 3rd back in 1928, while the earliest was September 24th in 1985.
Another Dry Stretch. Rain Chances Late Week
Here's the weather outlook from AM Tuesday to AM Monday. Weather conditions through midweek will still remain rather dry & mild for mid September. However, it turns a little unsettled as we approach the end of the week and weekend ahead with shower and thunderstorms chances. Areas of heavier rainfall can't be ruled out near the international border.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
After dry weather through the first half of the week, things turn more unsettled late week and into the weekend ahead. Areas of heavier rainfall will be possible across the northern half of the state, where some 1" to 2" amounts can't be ruled out.
Minnesota Drought Update
Here's the latest drought update across Minnesota. As of September 6th, we still have a sliver of moderate and severe drought conditions stretching from the Twin Cities Metro to the Minnesota River Valley.
Weather Outlook on Tuesday
The weather outlook on Tuesday shows another dry and mild day in place across the region. Temps will generally warm into the 70s and 80s, which will be nearly +5F to +10F above average
Weather Outlook Tuesday
The weather outlook for Minneapolis on Tuesday shows dry and mild weather in place for much of the day. Temps will start a bit on the cooler side, but readings will warm into the upper lower 80s by the afternoon, which will be above average for mid September.
Turning A Little Sticky Late Week
Dewpoints will be very comfortable through the first half of next week, but notice the gradual increase over the next several days. Later this week, it'll be a bit warmer and stickier, but it won't be too bad.
Meteograms for Minneapolis
The hourly forecast for Minneapolis on Tuesday shows temps starting in the low/mid 50s in the morning with highs topping out in the lower 80s in the afternoon. Again, it'll be a dry and comfortable day with a southwesterly breeze.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows readings running above average by nearly +5F to +10F over the next several days with a slight increase in humidity values as we approach the weekend.
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended weather outlook over the next 7 days shows dry and comfortable conditions in place through midweek. Temps will once again warm into the 80s, which will be above average for mid September. Rain chances will increase later this week and into the weekend with locally heavy rainfall possible across the northern half of the state. Stay tuned.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
According to the NBM & ECMWF extended temperature outlook shows above average temps through the upcoming weekend. One model shows a general cooling trend into next week, but the other shows a modest warming trend. Stay tuned...
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows above average temps continuing across much of the nation, especially across the eastern two-thirds of the nation.
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows dry weather in place in the Western US and especially from the Northwest to the High Plains.
Activity in the Atlantic
As of Monday afternoon, there were no named storms in the Atlantic Basin. However, there are 2 areas of interest that have a low probability of formation over the next 5 days.
The Persistent Perils of Predicting the Future
By Paul Douglas
My fantasy football team is already a hot mess. When people complain about weather forecasts I ask how their fantasy team is doing? They usually laugh and change the subject.
Football rankings (ie. weather models) arrive after every NFL game with the latest roster and outlook. Team rosters change over time (sound familiar)? Good luck predicting who will get injured weeks or months from now, which obviously impacts a team's ability to win. Long range forecasts are riddled with uncertainty. The future is, to a large degree, unknowable.
Tell that to residents of southeast Wisconsin, where a temporarily stalled storm just squeezed out 5-10" rain near Milwaukee and Racine. 3 month's worth in 2 day, a potentially record-setting September rain.
Skies stay sunny most of this week with a return to the 80s. T-storms are most likely Friday; again Sunday as a hot front draws near.
Finally, can anyone tell me when interest rates will peak? Supply chain bugs? This virus? Looking backward in time is easier.
Extended Forecast
TUESDAY: Warm and sunny. Winds: SW 5-10. High: 81.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy & quiet. Winds: SSW 5. Low: 57.
WEDNESDAY: Plenty of sunshine. Winds: SE 8-13. High: 82.
THURSDAY: Some sun, T-storms up north. Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up: 65. High: 83.
FRIDAY: Better chance of T-storms. Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up: 69. High: 81.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny, feels like early August. Winds: S 5-10. Wake-up: 67. High: 85.
SUNDAY: Sticky sun, few T-storms around. Winds: S 15-30. Wake-up: 68. High: 83.
MONDAY: Hello summer! Hazy sun, hot. Winds: SW 10-20. Wake-up: 73. High: 88.
This Day in Weather History
September 13th
1994: Lightning strikes and injures a 35 year old man in Stearns County as he opens the door of his truck. Witnesses said he was thrown 10 feet when the lightning bolt struck him.
1834: Smoke fills the sky at Ft. Snelling due to fires burning nearby.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
September 13th
Average High: 74F (Record: 95F set in 1939)
Average Low: 56F (Record: 33F set in 1890)
Record Rainfall: 1.29" set in 1921
Record Snowfall: None
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
September 13th
Sunrise: 6:47am
Sunset: 7:31pm
Hours of Daylight: ~12 hours & 38 minutes
Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 3 minutes & 5 seconds
Daylight LOST since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 2 hour & 59 minutes
Moon Phase for September 13th at Midnight
1.9 Days After Full "Harvest" Moon
"4:59 a.m. CDT - Traditionally, this designation goes to the full moon that occurs closest to the autumnal (fall) equinox, which falls this year on Sept. 22. This year's Harvest Moon comes unusually early. At the peak of the harvest, farmers can work into the night by the light of this moon. Usually, the moon rises an average of 50 minutes later each night, but for the few nights around the Harvest Moon, the moon seems to rise at nearly the same time each night: just 25 to 30 minutes later across the U.S., and only 10 to 20 minutes later for much of Canada and Europe. Corn, pumpkins, squash, beans, and wild rice — indigenous staples in North America — are now ready for gathering."
National High Temps Tuesday
The weather outlook on Tuesday shows warmer than average temps returning the the Midwest with highs approaching 90F in Denver. Meanwhile, cooler than average temps will be found in the Western & Southwestern US.
National Weather Outlook Tuesday
Areas of showers and storms will be possible across the Intermountain-West. There will also be areas of storms in the Northeast and across Florida. Much of the rest of the nation will be dry.
National Weather Outlook
Here's the weather outlook through Wednesday, which shows unsettled weather across the Intermountain-West as a storm system slowly shifts east. This will eventually bring areas of rain and thunder to the Midwest later in the week. Meanwhile, a storm system will move into the Northeast and will keep rain chances in place through early Wednesday. There will be a stalled front in Florida, which will keep areas of heavy rains there as well.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, areas of heavier precipitation will continue across Florida with localized flooding possible. There will also be decent rainfall amounts through the Intermountain-West and also closer to Lake Superior.
Climate Stories
"U.N. seeks funds for African nations as cost of climate change rises"
"From drought to floods and sea level rise, the cost of damage caused by climate change will only get higher as the world warms, sparking concerns from both top officials and activists about how to pay for it. "Loss and damage from the climate crisis is not a future event. It is happening now, all around us," said United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on a visit to Pakistan, which recently suffered from devastating floods that displaced hundreds of thousands of people and left over a thousand dead."
"How Drought and War Are Really Affecting the Global Food Supply"
"THE IMAGES ARE apocalyptic. Pleasure boats marooned in dried-up European rivers. Norwegian reservoirs too low to drive hydropower. China's largest inland lake turned to a prairie as its water evaporates away. And so are the warnings. The National Drought Group of the UK predicts that yields of some vegetable crops—carrots, onion, and potatoes—could be cut in half. The European Drought Observatory says that almost half of the bloc is drier than it has been since the Renaissance. China's agricultural ministry has urged farmers to undertake emergency switches to different crops following a historic heatwave."
"Drinking water is becoming more scarce. Is desalination the solution?"
"Clean freshwater is critical for sustaining human life. However, 1.1 billion people lack access to it worldwide. Desalination represents an increasingly popular way of addressing this. Desalination is the process of extracting salt from saline water to make it drinkable. There are two main types of desalination. In the first–called thermal desalination–heat is used. This produces water vapor that condenses on pipes into fresh water. This process remains dominant across the Middle East, where nearly half of the world's desalinated water is produced."
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