Twin Cities Weather Outlook This Weekend
Looking into the 3rd weekend of June, the Twin Cities has the potential to see some much needed rain, but unfortunately it'll come during the PM hours of Saturday into Sunday. It won't be a washout, but you may want to have a plan B if you're outside and skies darken to the southwest and west; and certainly if you hear any thunder.
Drought Update
It has been an extremely dry stretch of weather across much of the station over the last several weeks. Only a few locations have seen decent pockets of rain, but the drought is expanding and getting works.
See more from the NWS & US Drought Monitor HERE:
Driest May 15st - June 16th On Record
According to NOAA's NWS, this is the driest May 15st through June 16th on record with only 0.26" of rain falling at the MSP Airport. We should be picking up nearly an inch of rain every week, but we've rarely had any substantial anywhere. It's definitely dry out there and it's getting worse.
30 Day Precipitation Anomaly
The map below shows the 30 day precipitation anomaly, which indicates that some locations in red are nearly -3.00" or more below average since mid May. This is where drought conditions are expanding... We could use some rain and buckets-loads at that!
Simulated Radar Through Midday Sunday
Here's the weather outlook through midday Sunday, which shows a weak disturbance moving into the Upper Midwest with spotty showers and thunderstorms both PM Saturday and Sunday. Severe weather concerns remain low with only pockets of rain expected through the weekend. It'll be enough to wet a few lawns and gardens, but not the widespread soaking we need.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
The extended rainfall outlook through the weekend shows pockets of decent rainfall here and there west of the Twin Cities Metro. Some locations could see up to an inch or more, but again, it'll be pretty isolated.
Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Saturday
The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Saturday, June 17th shows sunny and dry weather conditions through the first half of the day with temps warming into the mid 80s. Spotty showers and storms will like develop west of the metro in the afternoon and move into the Twin Cities late afternoon and evening.
Meteograms For Minneapolis
The hourly temps through the day Saturday show temps starting in the low/mid 60s in the morning with highs warming into the mid 80F by the afternoon. Much of the first half of the day will be dry with isolated thunderstorms possible late into the afternoon and evening. Southerly winds will be a little breezy with gusts approaching 20mph through the afternoon.
Weather Outlook For Saturday
Here's the weather outlook across the region for Saturday. It'll be a very summery day with high temps warming into the 80s across much of the state, which will be nearly +5F to +10F above average for this time of the year.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
Temperatures for the Twin Cities will remain well above average over the next several days with readings warming into the 80s & 90F. Another hot spell arrives next week with several days into the 90s. Uffda!
Comfy Dewpoints Continue
Dewpoints will become a little more sticky as we head into the next few days. This is when our shower and thunderstorm potential will increase just a bit.
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended weather outlook for the Twin Cities will be warmer than average over the next few days with hot and slightly more humid conditions developing through the weekend. A few showers and storms develop late Saturday into Sunday before drying out early next week. We may see another chance of rain and thunder late next week and weekend.
Extended Temperature Outlook
The NBM extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows temps consistently into the 80s and 90s as we approach the end of the month. The warmest days arrive next week with a string of low/mid 90s.
Weather Outlook
Weather conditions across the Midwest will turn a little more unsettled this weekend with a few spotty showers and storms. We'll also see ongoing strong to severe thunderstorm chances across the Gulf Coast States with locally heavy rainfall.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14-day temperature outlook shows warmer-than-average temperatures settling in across much of the Central US, including the Midwest, while cooler than average temps will continue in the Southwest.
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows more active weather possible across Northwestern US as we head into the end of the month. Drier weather will settle in across Texas and the Desert Southwest.
Watching The Tropics
According to NOAA's NHC, there is a wave of energy in the eastern Atlantic that has a high probability of tropical formation over the next 7 days as it drifts west.
Symptoms of El Nino Already Kicking In
By Paul Douglas
El Nino has arrived on our weather maps. Weather patterns have already been hijacked by unusually warm ocean water in the equatorial Pacific. El Nino flavors weather thousands of miles downwind, favoring milder, drier weather (and winters) for Minnesota and the northern tier of the USA, with wetter, stormier weather for the southern states.
A massive tornado just hit Perryton, Texas with up to 17" rain near Pensacola, Florida. And abnormally warm oceanwater is showing up in the North Atlantic, which may impact hurricane intensities later this summer.
Sneak outside today for warm sunshine and 80s, before a few T-storms rumble in later today. Metro showers and storms become more frequent Sunday as a weak disturbance passes overhead. Light winds aloft may cause some of the storms to stall, squeezing out a few inches of rain on some towns, while other spots pick up very little rain. A fickle pattern. We're in a drought, let it rain.
I see low to mid 90s nearly every day next week. It's not my fault. Blame El Nino.
Extended Forecast
SATURDAY: Sunny start. PM T-storms. Winds: S 8-13. High: 86.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a few t-showers. Winds: SSE 5-10. Low: 66.
SUNDAY: Unsettled, more numerous T-storms. Winds: SE 10-15. High: 81.
MONDAY: Hot, hazy sunshine. Winds: S 8-13. Wake-up: 68. High: 89.
TUESDAY: Blue sky, plenty hot. Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up: 70. High 92.
WEDNESDAY: Murky sun, a hot breeze. Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up. 72. High: 94.
THURSDAY: Sticky with some sun, PM T-storms. Winds: S 10-15. Wake-up: 73. High 92.
FRIDAY: Muggy with showers and T-storms. Winds: SW 10-15. Wake-up: 71. High 88.
This Day in Weather History
June 17th
2010: The largest single-day tornado outbreak in Minnesota history occurs with 48 tornadoes across the state. This outbreak would set the stage for a record breaking tornado year in Minnesota that finished with 113 tornadoes, the most of any state in the US that year. There were three EF-4 tornadoes and four EF-3 tornadoes in Minnesota. Four tornado fatalities occurred, which was the highest daily number since July 5, 1978.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
June 17th
Average High: 80F (Record: 97F set in 1933)
Average Low: 61F (Record: 42F set in 1960)
Record Rainfall: 1.72" set in 1883
Record Snowfall: NONE
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
June 17th
Sunrise: 5:26am
Sunset: 9:01pm
Hours of Daylight: ~15 hours & 35 minutes
Daylight GAINED since yesterday: +19 Seconds
Daylight GAINED since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 6 hour & 49 minutes
Moon Phase for June 17th at Midnight
0.1 Days Since New Moon
National High Temps on Saturday
Temperatures on Saturday will be well above average across the Central US with record heat across the Deep South. Meanwhile, temps along the Front Range of the Rockies will remain quite a bit cooler than average with showers and storms possible.
National Weather Saturday
The weather outlook on Saturday will still be unsettled across the Central and Southern US, where strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible. We'll also see storms develop in the Northeastern US and through the Intermountain-West.
National Weather Outlook
The weather outlook through Sunday shows unsettled weather continuing across the Central and Southern US with strong to severe thunderstorms across the Gulf Coast States. Some of the storms could produce gusty winds and large hail along with locally heavy rainfall.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, the extended precipitation outlook shows heavier precipitation developing from parts of the Central US and certainly into the Southeastern US, where several inches of rain and flooding concerns can't be ruled out.
Climate Stories
"Why recent water temperatures in the North Atlantic have scientists buzzing"
"It's been well documented that ocean temperatures have been on the rise across the globe for the past few decades. However what's happening with the warming waters in the North Atlantic over the past few weeks has the science community buzzing. Temperatures in the North Atlantic are warming at new record levels this spring, based on data compiled by NOAA satellites and produced by the University of Maine. In early June, sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic were as warm as 0.5 degrees above the previous record and more than one degree above the 1982-2011 average."
"This Part Of Florida Continues To Reopen — How It Is Recovering From Hurricane Ian"
"It has taken longer than some residents and business owners expected, and the recovery process has been frustrating for many, but some parts of southwestern Florida that were damaged by Hurricane Ian are welcoming summer travelers. Hurricane Ian, a Category 4 hurricane, made landfall in the U.S. on September 28, 2022, with maximum sustained winds of 150 miles per hour. Some of the hardest-hit areas, including Fort Myers Beach and Sanibel, saw catastrophic storm surge and damaging winds, according to Weather.gov. In Fort Myers Beach, for instance, Hurricane Ian caused a 15-foot storm surge. Right now, enormous piles of debris are commonplace in Fort Myers Beach and Sanibel, and concrete slabs show where buildings had been before they were either washed away or demolished. Despite this debris issue, most of the hotel rooms in Fort Myers are open again, according to representatives from Fort Myers – Islands, Beaches and Neighborhoods."
See more from Travel Awaits HERE:
"Watch Out: Tornado Alley Is Migrating Eastward"
"Roughly 1,200 tornadoes strike the U.S. during an average year. They're prevalent in the U.S.—far more so than anywhere else in the world—because its geography sets up the perfect conditions, especially in spring and summer. Westerly winds from the Pacific Ocean drop their moisture when they push up over the Rocky Mountains, becoming high, dry and cool as they move farther east. Similar winds may descend from Canada. Meanwhile low, warm, humid air streams northward from the Gulf of Mexico. Flat terrain along these paths allows the winds to move relatively uninterrupted, at contrasting altitudes, until they run into one another. The angles at which they collide tend to create unstable air and wind shear, two big factors that favor tornado formation. Although somewhat similar air masses do clash in other places, such as Uruguay and Bangladesh, the forces are much more powerful over the U.S. Canada ranks second worldwide with 100 twisters a year."
See more from Scientific American HERE:
