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More Rain Late Week
Weather conditions will be mostly dry through midweek before another slow moving storm system moves into town. This system will be responsible for a few days of cool and showery weather into the weekend with areas of snow possible, especially north.
Precipitation Outlook
The extended precipitation outlook through the weekend suggests some decent tallies possible across eastern Minnesota and into Wisconsin. Some of the heaviest tallies will approach 1", especially in Wisconsin.
Snow Depth As of Sunday
As of Sunday, the snow pack was still in place across parts of the state. Duluth still had 3" of snow on the ground, while International Falls had 6" of snow on the ground. With warmer weather on the way, most of the snow will be melting soon.
Snowfall So Far This Season
Snowfall amounts are quite impressive across the region with several locations running well above average. Duluth has seen nearly 140" of snow, which is the snowiest season on record! The Twin Cities has seen more than 90" of snow, which is the 3rd snowiest season on record. Interestingly, Bismarck North Dakota is only 0.5" away from being the snowiest season on record as well! Most climate sites around the Midwest are well above average for snowfall this season with a surplus of more than 50" in Duluth and Bismarck. The Twin Cities is nearly 40" above average this season as well.
Snowiest Season on Record in Duluth
As of Saturday, the NWS in Duluth had seen nearly 140" of snow, which is the snowiest season on record. This beats the previous record of 135.4" set during the winter of 1995-96. Interestingly, 1996 was the last year that Lake Superior completely froze over. Note that there have only been 19 seasons on record that have recorded 100" or more in Duluth.
Nearly 12 Feet of Snow in Duluth This Winter!
It's hard to believe, but nearly 12 FEET of snow has fallen in Duluth this winter. That's nearly the size of a full grown African Elephant - WOW!
3rd Snowiest Season on Record in Minneapolis
It's been an impressive snow season in the Twin Cities as well with the MSP Airport picking up more than 90" of snow, which is good enough for the 3rd snowiest season on record. We need less than 5.0" into the 2nd spot and less than 9" to get into the top spot. If you're wondering, the latest measurable snow (0.1") on record at MSP was on May 24th set in 1925. The snow season isn't quite over just yet... Stay tuned.
Flood Outlook
According to the National Weather Service, out of 160 river gauges on the map below, 50 are currently or are expected to be in flood stage at some point over the next several days. Some spots are or will be experiencing Moderate and even Major flood stage, which could cause issues in flood prone communities.
Major Flooding Expected in Stillwater
Here's the river forecast for the St. Croix River at Stillwater. Moderate flooding was ongoing for much of the last several days, but Major flooding is likely as we head through the rest of the month. Note that this could be the most significant crest since April of 2001 and could potentially be the 6th highest crest on record there! If the crest gets to 90ft, HWY 95 between Afton and Bayport begins to flood. Lakefront Park bathhouse in Hudson affected.
See more from the river gauge HERE:
Major Flooding Expected Along The Mississippi River at St. Paul
The Mississippi River at St. Paul is will be in flood stage over the next several days with Major Flood Stage expected by late week. Late next week, we could see the river crest around 18.8ft, which would be the most significant crest since March 31st, 2019 when water levels reached 20.19ft. If we do hit 18.8ft, this would be the 11th highest crest on record for this location.
Extended Temperature Outlook
The NBM extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows lingering cool temps in place through the week. However, we should see a gradual warming trend toward 60F late week, which is where we typically should be for this time of the year. Overall, the end of April will finish on a cooler than normal note.
Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Tuesday
The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Tuesday, April 25th will be a little more tolerable, but still very chilly for late April. Temps may warm into the lower 50s in the metro, which will still be nearly 10F below average. We should see more sunshine through the day Tuesday as well.
Weather Outlook on Tuesday
Temps across the region on Tuesday will be well below average across the region. Highs across the region will warm into the 40s and 50s, which is nearly -10F cooler than we should be at this time of the year.
Meteograms For Minneapolis
The hourly temps through the day Tuesday shows temps starting around 30F in the morning and warming to low 50s by the afternoon. We should see more sunshine through the day with northeasterly winds around 10mph to 15mph.
Status of Spring
"April 17, 2023 - Spring leaf out continues to spread north. Spring arrived several days to weeks earlier than average (the period of 1991-2020) in much of the Southeast, lower Midwest, and mid-Atlantic, then slowed across the northern Great Plains and lower Midwest. In the past week, spring has picked up speed, arriving days to weeks early across the upper Midwest and northern Northeast. Salt Lake City, UT is 22 days late, Green Bay, WI and Portland, ME are 3 days early, and parts of Michigan's Upper Peninsula are 12 days early. Spring bloom has also arrived in southern states, days to weeks early in the Southeast, and days to over a week late in the Southwest. Albuquerque is a week late, New York City is 11 days early. How typical is this year's spring? Darker colors represent springs that are unusually early or late in the long-term record. Gray indicates an average spring. Parts of the Southeast, lower Midwest, mid-Atlantic, and New York City area are seeing either the earliest spring leaf on record or a spring that only occurs once every 40 years (dark green). Parts of the West are seeing a spring that only occurs this late once every 40 years (purple). Spring bloom is latest on record across parts of the Southwest including California and Arizona, and earliest on record in parts of the upper Southeast including Tennessee, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina."
See more from the National Phenology Network HERE:
Weather Outlook
Weather conditions will stay dry close to home through midweek, but another storm system will move in late week and will linger through the weekend with more gray skies and chilly rain showers. There may even be a little snow across parts of northern Minnesota and Wisconsin.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
Temps will be cooler than average through midweek with temps only warming into the 50s, which will be nearly -5F to -10F below average. We should get back to near normal temps on Thursday with readings back into the lower 60s. However, it'll be quite chilly again Friday and into the weekend as we drop down into the lower 50s.
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
Weather conditions will be drier through midweek before another storm system moves into later this week with scattered rain chances. Gray and soggy weather could stick around into early next week.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows cooler than average temperatures across much of the Eastern US and also across the West Coast. Meanwhile, temps from Texas to Wyoming could be a little warmer.
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows quieter weather in place across the Great Lakes and Northeast, while more active weather will move into the Western and Southern US.
Spring Should Come With A Warning Label
By Paul Douglas
At least we're having a better spring than our parents did back in 1965: record flooding on most rivers, followed by four devastating EF-4 tornadoes in the metro area on May 6, and then the latest report of snow on record in the Twin Cities (May 28, 1965). I can only imagine the suffering (and grief local meteorologists were getting that year). Yes, it can always be worse.
I'd like to propose rebooting spring. Unplug and plug back in again to see if that clears up this unwelcome rerun of March. And for the record, I'm not convinced we've seen the last of the slush, even in the metro area.
More sunshine today and Wednesday helps us green up a little faster, with showers returning by Thursday. Weather systems usually track from west to east at about 20-30 mph. Usually. This weekend a massive, full-latitude storm will stall over the Great Lakes, pulling rain and wet snow out of Canada into Minnesota and Wisconsin. A few inches for the Arrowhead? Maybe a little MSP slush Monday morning. Make. It. Stop.
Extended Forecast
TUESDAY: Partly sunny, pleasant. Winds: NE 8-13. High: 53.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear and quiet. Winds: NE 5-10. Low: 31.
WEDNESDAY: Plenty of sun, feels like spring. Winds: SE 7-12. High 57.
THURSDAY: Unsettled, few rain showers. Winds: W 7-12. Wake-up: 43. High 64.
FRIDAY: Cooler with steadier rain. Winds: NE 10-20. Wake-up: 46. High 51.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy, few showers. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 40. High: 53.
SUNDAY: Raw with a cold rain. Snow up north? Winds: NW 15-30. Wake-up: 39. High: 46.
MONDAY: Mayday! Rain mixes with wet snow. Winds: NW 15-30. Wake-up: 33. High: 39.
This Day in Weather History
April 25th
1996: Heavy snow falls over northern Minnesota, including 10 inches of snow at Baudette. The International Falls Airport is forced to close for only the second time in history.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
April 25th
Average High: 61F (Record: 91F set in 1962)
Average Low: 42F (Record: 25F set in 1907)
Record Rainfall: 1.47" set in 1902
Record Snowfall: 3.2" set in 1950
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
April 25th
Sunrise: 6:11am
Sunset: 8:10pm
Hours of Daylight: ~13 hours & 58 minutes
Daylight GAINED since yesterday: +2 Minutes & 51 Seconds
Daylight GAINED since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 5 hour & 12 minutes
Moon Phase for April 25th at Midnight
1.6 Days Before First Quarter Moon
National High Temps on Tuesday
Temperatures on Tuesday will be cooler than average east of the Rockies and especially across the Great Lakes. Slightly warmer than average temperatures will be found in the Southwest with readings warming into the 90s in Arizona.
National Weather Outlook Tuesday
The weather outlook on Tuesday will be more unsettled across the Gulf Coast and into the Plains with showers and thunderstorms. It may be cool enough for areas of rain and snow across the Central Rockies.
Severe Threat on Tuesday & Wednesday
According to NOAA's SPC, strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across the Southern US, including Texas both Tuesday and Wednesday. Large hail, damaging winds and even isolated tornadoes will be possible.
National Weather Outlook
As we head through the next few days, heavier showers and storms will develop across the Southern US. Some of the storms could be strong to severe with locally heavy rainfall.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, the extended precipitation outlook shows heavier precipitation across the Southern US as we head through the week ahead. There could be periods of heavier precipitation in the Northeast as well, but the Southwest looks to stay mainly dry.
Snowfall Potential
According to the ECMWF (European model), snowfall accumulations will be possible across parts of the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. There will also be some heavier snow across the spine of the Rockies.
Climate Stories
"How Warming Upended One of Greenland's Most Stable Glaciers"
"Greenland's Steenstrup Glacier doubled its annual ice loss in just a few years, thanks to warm ocean water. For decades, the Steenstrup Glacier was one of Greenland's most stable swaths of ice. Then it suddenly began to retreat inland in 2018, dumping ice into the sea as it shrank. By 2021, it had quadrupled its rate of retreat and doubled the amount of ice that it was pouring into the ocean. It was one of the fastest accelerations of melting ice that scientists had ever observed from a Greenland glacier. And it may be a warning sign for the future. A new study suggests that an influx of warm, deep ocean water was likely to blame. The deep waters around Greenland are heating up over time, meaning these kinds of episodes may grow more frequent in the future."
See more from Scientific American HERE:
"Global Warming Is Already Hitting Europe Hard"
"If water is life, then Europeans are under mortal threat. That was the message in a nutshell transmitted today by the European Commission's scientific advisers at the Copernicus Climate Change Service. Drought conditions not seen in some places since the Renaissance are becoming the continent's new normal, with perilous knock-on effects for food security and supply chains in the European Union, the world's third-biggest economy. Water levels on European rivers have been shrinking now for six years, with farmland drying up and Alpine glaciers in retreat."
"Tornado forecasts are more accurate. Why aren't they saving more lives?"
"America's tornado warning system is a patchwork of municipal sirens, cell phone alerts, and radio and TV messages. But even as forecasting for dangerous storms improves, people who live in rural areas too often miss the life-saving warnings. Last month, a catastrophic tornado outbreak in Mississippi killed at least 26 people. A tornado rated 4 out of 5 on the Enhanced Fujita Scale landed in Rolling Fork around 8 p.m. and was on the ground for an hour and 10 minutes, raging through the communities of Winona, Black Hawk and Silver City. Victor Gensini, an associate professor of meteorology at Northern Illinois University, pins the rising probability of tragedies like Rolling Fork on multiple factors, including climate change, population growth, poverty, urban sprawl, and weak construction."
