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Snow Next Week?
Here's the weather outlook from 7pm Monday to 7pm Wednesday, which shows a developing storm system moving through the middle part of the country through the first half of the week. Strong to severe storms will be possible across the Lower Mississippi Valley with heavy rainfall, while plowable snow will be possible the Upper Midwest.
Severe Threat Tuesday
According to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, there is a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms on Tuesday across the Lower Mississippi Valley
Warmer Week Ahead
The 850mb temp anomaly through the week ahead shows warmer than average temperatures continuing on Saturday before cooler temps arrive late weekend and into most of next week.
Warmer Week Ahead
Much warmer than average temperatures continue on Saturday with highs approaching 50F. Sunday will be cooler with readings back down in the 30s with even cooler air moving in by the middle part of the week and through the first part of December.
Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Saturday
Here's the weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Saturday, November 26th. It'll be another quiet and very mild day with temps warming into the 50s by the afternoon.
Snow Depth
After a cold and somewhat snowy week last week, a number of locations around the region are still reporting snow on the ground. However, recent mild weather has allowed that snow to melt to a trace across much of Central and Southern MN. Far northern Minnesota is still reporting a decent amount on the ground with 6" in International Falls.
Weather Outlook on Saturday
Temps across the region on Saturday will be quite mild for this time of the year with readings warming into the 40s and 50s, which will be nearly 10F to 15F warmer than average. Clouds will be on the increase across the northern half of the state through the day.
Meteograms For Minneapolis
Temps on Saturday will start in the mid 30s in the morning with highs reaching the lower 50s in the afternoon. The skies will remain sunny and dry with breezy southwesterly winds approaching 25mph at times.
Precipitation Departure From Average This Fall
It has been a very dry Fall so far with precipitation running more than -4.85" below average (since September 1st). The September 1st - November 25th time period was the 4th driest on record.
Precipitation Departure From Average Since Jan. 1st
The Twin Cities is nearly 9.82" below average for the year, which is the 19th driest start to any year on record (through November 25th). Meanwhile, International Fall, MN is still nearly 9.67" above average, which is still the 2nd wettest start to any year on record there.
Drought Update
It has been a dry year for many across central and southern MN. Extreme drought continues across parts of the Twin Cities to the Minnesota River Valley where rainfall deficits have been the greatest. It would be nice to get a good soaking prior to heading into winter, but it doesn't appear that anything substantial is on the way anytime soon.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
The extended precipitation outlook through the end of next week shows minor precipitation potential close to home. However, temperatures will be cold enough for snow, so this could cause some travel issues, but it's still too early to tell. Stay tuned...
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows well above average temperatures in place on Sunday with readings nearly +15F above average for the end of November. We'll be closer to average on Sunday and then well below average by the middle part of next week.
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended weather outlook over the next 7 days shows mild and quiet weather in place again on Saturday with temps cooling down to near average levels on Sunday. A storm system approaching Tuesday into Wednesday with minor snow accumulations possible. Then it'll be much colder by the 2nd half of next week.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
Here's the ECMWF extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis through the end of the month and into early December. We could be near 50F again on Saturday with much cooler readings arriving as we head through the 2nd half of next week.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows warmer than average temps hanging on across Southeastern US with cooler than average temps returning to the Western half of the Central & Western US.
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows more active weather in place across parts of the nation.
So Many Questions This Winter Season
By Paul Douglas
So many questions. Will extreme drought linger into 2023? [probably, but I'd love to be proven wrong] Will this be harsh winter, with stratospheric-warming events nudging the Polar Vortex into Minnesota? [no way to tell] We want to know the future, but a convergence of natural cycles makes it nearly impossible for clarity and confidence in the winter outlook.
I'm keeping an eye on the AO, the "Arctic Oscillation". It's about to go negative, which means weaker west to east jet stream winds; a loopier pattern that favors more frequent intrusions of numbing air. But will it stay negative most of winter? [probably not] Today's lukewarm weather bliss is just Old Man Winter catching his breath.
Soak up 50F later today because a cooling trend is just as inevitable as pangs of holiday disappointment. No drama Sunday or Monday but a storm will side-swipe us with plowable snow Tuesday, maybe something in the 2-4" range.
A few smacks of wintry weather are imminent, but nothing subzero yet. That's what January is for!
Extended Forecast
SATURDAY: Sunny and mild. Winds: SW 10-20. High: 51.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds clouds. Winds: NNW 5-10. Low: 32.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy and cooler. Winds: NW 10-20. High: 37.
MONDAY: More clouds than sun, still quiet. Winds: SE 8-13. Wake-up: 25. High: 40.
TUESDAY: Snow likely, could be plowable. Winds: N 10-20. Wake-up: 31. High: 33.
WEDNESDAY: Some sun, windy. Feels like January. Winds: W 15-30. Wake-up: 16. High: 20.
THURSDAY: Patchy clouds, still chilly. Winds: SE 8-13. Wake-up: 9. High: 29.
FRIDAY: Some sun, thawing out a little. Winds: S 7-12. Wake-up: 23. High: 37.
This Day in Weather History
November 26th
2001: A strong low pressure system develops in Colorado on the 25th, reached eastern Iowa during the evening of the 26th, then moved into eastern Wisconsin late on the 27th. It produced a wide swath of heavy snow across much of central Minnesota into West Central Wisconsin. Storm total snowfall of 8 inches or more was common, with a large area exceeding 20 inches. Specifically, Willmar picked up 30.4 inches, New London saw 28.5 inches, Collegeville had 23.4 inches, Litchfield and Granite Falls received 22 inches, and Milan had 20 inches. A convective snow band set up across this area on the 27th and remained nearly stationary for over 12 hours, resulting in the extreme storm totals. From 8 am on the 26th to 8 am on the 27th, Willmar received 21 of its 30.4 inches, setting a record for most snowfall in Willmar in a 24 hour period. The heavy wet snow downed numerous power lines, and at one point, at least 20,000 customers were without power in the Minneapolis-St. Paul metropolitan area. Over one thousand traffic accidents were noted across the entire area. Most were minor, but one accident claimed two lives when a car spun out and collided with a semi near Mora.
1995: A narrow band of five to eight inches of snow falls from west central Minnesota around Canby and Granite Falls to east central Minnesota. This included much of the Twin Cities metro area.
1965: A snowstorm develops across northern Minnesota. 14.7 inches of snow fell at Duluth, along with 13.6 inches at Grand Rapids.
1896: A severe Thanksgiving day ice storm develops over southwest and central Minnesota. 1.42 inches of freezing rain falls at Bird Island, and 1.20 inches of freezing rain falls at Montevideo. The ice causes a great deal of damage to trees and shrubs.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
November 26th
Average High: 37F (Record: 62F set in 1914)
Average Low: 23F (Record: -16F set in 1977)
Record Rainfall: 1.76" set in 1896
Record Snowfall: 5.0" set in 1970
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
November 26th
Sunrise: 7:24am
Sunset: 4:35pm
Hours of Daylight: ~9 hours & 10 minutes
Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 1 minute & 50 seconds
Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 21st): ~ 6 hour & 26 minutes
Moon Phase for November 26th at Midnight
36.3 Days After New Moon
National High Temps Saturday
The weather outlook on Saturday milder weather in place across the Midwest with highs running nearly 10F to 15F above average. However, cooler temps will be place across the Southern and Western US.
National Weather Outlook Saturday
The weather outlook for Saturday shows showers and storms across the Southern US with pockets of heavy rainfall.
National Weather Outlook
The weather outlook through Sunday shows widespread showers and storms across the Southern and Eastern US with locally heavy rain. Meanwhile, there is another developing storm system
Extended Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, the extended precipitation outlook brings heavier precipitation potential across the Southern & Southeastern US. There will also be heavier precipitation in the Pacific Northwest.
Snowfall Potential
According to the ECMWF (European model), areas of heavy snowfall will be found in the Western US, especially in the high elevations.
Climate Stories
"Tempting solution: cool the planet artificially"
"Technologies that deflect the sun's rays could prevent heatwaves and droughts. Yet they could also have undesiderable effects on ecosystems and human populations. Switzerland wants to see a study on the potential and risks of these technologies. But some scientists are calling for an immediate ban on an idea they believe to be "harmful to humanity". A plane with a wingspan of about 100 metres takes off from an airport in the US. There are no passengers or goods on board. There isn't even a pilot. This aircraft is remote-controlled from the ground and is equipped with storage tanks and a vaporiser. Once it reaches the stratosphere, at an altitude of about 20km, it disperses billions of particles of sulphur dioxide. The aim is to reflect back a portion of the sun's rays into outer space."
See more from Swiss Info HERE:
"Living Next Door to Rising Seas: Portraits From Palau"
"As world leaders gather for COP27, few will hear the stories of Palauans coping with surging storms, growing heat waves and dying coral reefs that threaten their millennia-old civilization. As world leaders convene in Egypt for COP27, the annual United Nations climate summit, small Pacific island nations facing erasure from rising seas are once again demanding that industrialized countries responsible for their plight take action. Ocean issues are on the agenda at this year's COP, as is loss and damage, UN jargon for compensating developing nations for climate disasters. But most wealthy countries have thus far offered little to help island peoples survive climate-driven typhoons, heat waves and biodiversity loss."
"Climate change will clearly disrupt El Niño and La Niña this decade, 40 years earlier than we thought"
"You've probably heard a lot about La Niña lately. This cool weather pattern is the main driver of heavy rain and flooding that has devastated much of Australia's southeast in recent months. You may also have heard of El Niño, which alternates with La Niña every few years. El Niño typically brings drier conditions to much of Australia. Together, the two phases are known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation—the strongest and most consequential factor driving Earth's weather. And in recent years there has been much scientific interest in how climate change will influence this global weather-maker."