Welcome to March madness, the atmospheric version. Experts say the odds of filling out a perfect bracket are 1 in 9.2 quintillion. If you know something about hoops? 1 in 120 billion. The same odds as getting every weather forecast in your career right.
The perfect storm track for all-snow is southeast of MSP. If a big low-pressure system tracks right overhead, or west of the metro? Odds favor a changeover to rain. Especially in late March, with less bitter air available to tip the scales to snow.
After 5 to 8 inches overnight Sunday (give or take), a rapid change to rain is likely Monday. Most models print out 1 to 2 inches of liquid precipitation (rain and melted snow) by midweek, good news for lawns, fields and gardens.
A little icy/snowy backlash is expected Tuesday with colder winds on the back of the storm; maybe another inch or 2 of slush. With temperatures falling below 32, roads may be slick.
Snow should melt fairly quickly, with mid 40s by Easter weekend. But for now? Build a snowman.
