Paul Douglas On Weather
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Snowfall Reports From Monday

Here's a look at snowfall reports from around the region on Monday. There were some 1" to 4" reports, most of which fell during the first half of the day and cause some major issues on roads during the morning commute. The heaviest report was found near Minnesota Lake, where 4.2" fell. Nearly 2" was reported at the MSP Airport.

Crash Course in Winter Driving, Literally

Our first accumulating snow of the season came at a bad time. It had many motorists spinning out of control across the state. According to the MN State Patrol, there were 322 crashes and 67 spinouts on Monday morning.

Winter Hazard Awareness Week in Minnesota and Wisconsin (November 14th - 18th)

November 14th through the 18th is Winter Hazard Awareness Week in Minnesota and Wisconsin. Each year, the National Weather Service, the Minnesota Division of Homeland Security and Emergency Management, and Wisconsin Emergency Management promote winter safety and preparedness for all citizens wherever they are: in their homes, on the road, at work and at play. Unfortunately, many people each year suffer needlessly because they are unaware of the potential dangers of the winter season. Winter safety information will be presented each day during the week of November 14th. The winter safety information will be separated into the 5 topics this week.

Tuesday, November 15th: Outdoor Winter Safety
The winter months can pose many hazards to those who choose to venture outdoors. With many outdoor activities available in Minnesota and Wisconsin during the winter season, you should be aware of how to keep yourself safe from the cold, ice and snow

Basic Safety Tips

  • Avoid overexertion, including when shoveling snow
  • Drink plenty of fluids
  • Keep yourself and your clothes dry
  • Watch for frostbite, and seek medical attention immediately if symptoms are present

What to Wear

  • Dress warmly in loose-fitting, layered, lightweight clothing
  • Wear a hat. Most body heat is lost through the top of your head
  • Wear mittens that are tight at the wrist
  • Cover your mouth and nose with a scarf

Ice Safety

See more from the NWS Twin Cities HERE:

See more from the Minnesota Department of Public Safety HERE:

More Snow Tuesday Into Wednesday

Here's the simulated radar from AM Tuesday to midday Wednesday, which shows another blob of light snow pushing through the region. This will be another longer duration event, so we could see another round of light accumulations through the first half of the day Wednesday. Plan on slick roads and slow commutes through midweek.

Snowfall Potential

Here's the snowfall potential through 6AM Wednesday, which shows some minor accumulations possible. It appears that locations around the Twin Cities could see some 2" to 4" tallies through midweek, while a few locations in Central Minnesota could see some 3" to 5" tallies. The heaviest snow in the state will be along the North Shore, which will be enhance by Lake Superior and higher terrain there. Tan lawns will likely turn some shade of white this week.

Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Tuesday

Here's the weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Tuesday, November 15th. Areas of light snow will be possible for much of the day, which could bring some 1" to 2" tallies to the metro. Temperature will hover around the freezing mark during the afternoon, but it should be cold enough to stick in many spots.

Weather Outlook on Tuesday

It'll be a cold and somewhat snowy day across the region with temps warming into the 20s and lower 30s, which will be nearly -5F to -15F below average for mid November. Snow won't be terribly heavy, but it'll be last long enough to accumulate across parts of the region.

Feels Like Temps on Tuesday

Feels like temps early Tuesday morning will be chilly with readings in the mid 20s. Much of the day will feel subfreezing with wind chill values only 'warming' into lower 30s by the afternoon.

Meteograms For Minneapolis

Temps on Tuesday will still be quite cold for this time of the year. Readings in the morning will start in the upper 20s in the Twin Cities and will only warm to the lower 30s by the afternoon. East to Southeasterly winds won't be terribly strong, but could get close to 10mph-15mph.

Precipitation Departure From Average This Fall

It has been a very dry Fall so far with precipitation running more than 4.62" below average (since September 1st). The September 1st - November 13th time period was the 6th driest on record.

Precipitation Departure From Average Since Jan. 1st

The Twin Cities is nearly 9.60" below average for the year, which is the 21st driest start to any year on record (through November 13th). Meanwhile, International Fall, MN is still nearly 9.66" above average, which is still the 2nd wettest start to any year on record there.

Drought Update

It has been a dry year for many across central and southern MN. Extreme drought continues across parts of the Twin Cities to the Minnesota River Valley where rainfall deficits have been the greatest. It would be nice to get a good soaking prior to heading into winter, but it doesn't appear that anything substantial is on the way anytime soon.

Continued Cold Through Mid November

The 850mb temp anomaly through most of next week shows below average temps across much of the Nation. It appears that the cold air is here to stay for quite some time.

Record Cold Highs Possible Friday?

Friday will be a very cold day with record cold high temps possible across parts of the state. It'll feel like January in November!

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows well below average temperatures in place over the next several days. It'll feel more like winter with highs only warming into the 20s and lower 30s, which will be nearly -10F to -20F below average for this time of the year. Friday could be even colder with highs only warming into the teens, which will be nearly -25F below average.

Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended weather outlook over the next 7 days shows well below average temperatures in place over the next several days. Light snow chances continues through Thursday with even colder temps late week and into the weekend ahead.

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

Here's the extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis through the last full week of November. The NBM Model shows well below average temperatures continuing with another surge of colder weather late next week/weekend. The coldest air of the season arrives Thursday - Saturday, which will likely be the coldest since March.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows colder than average temps in place across the eastern part of the nation, while warmer than average temps will start to settle in across the Western US.

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows quieter weather in place across the Central US, while more active weather will settle in across the Southeastern US and the Northwestern US.

A crash course in Winter Driving. More snow ahead
By Todd Nelson, filling in for Douglas.

Between the Vikes overtime win in Buffalo on Sunday and the white-knuckle commute on Monday, I think I am ready for a nap or vacation. Maybe a nap, while on vacation; even better.

1 to 3 inches of powdery snow created mass chaos on Minnesota roads yesterday morning. I may have spotted Minnesota Wild's Kirill Kaprizov skate by, it was so icy. According to the Minnesota State Patrol, there were 322 vehicle crashes and 67 spinouts across the state, thankfully no fatalities. Many are, literally, getting a crash course in winter driving this week.

December-like temps continue today with another coating to 2 inches possible through tomorrow morning. More painfully slow commutes? Plan on it. Slow down, we'll all get there eventually.

A reinforcing shot of even colder air arrives on the heels of a clipper system Thursday. Wind-whipped flakes and and tumbling temps will make it feel more like January. Record cold high temps are possible Friday with subzero wind chills this weekend.

Yawn. I'm ready for that vacation nap.

Extended Forecast

TUESDAY: Another 1" to 2". Slow commutes likely. Winds: ESE 5. High: 33.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Snow continues. Another coating. Winds: NNW 5. Low: 28.

WEDNESDAY: Lingering flakes & flurries early. Winds: NNW 7-12. High: 32.

THURSDAY: Flakes and flurries. Windy & colder. Winds: WNW 10-20. Wake-up: 18. High: 24.

FRIDAY: Icy winds. Feels like mid winter. Winds: WSW 7-12. Wake-up: 11. High: 17.

SATURDAY: Scattered flurries. Hibernating cold. Winds: WNW 10-15. Wake-up: 7. High: 18.

SUNDAY: Face-numbing start. More PM sunshine. Winds: WNW 5-10. Wake-up: 5. High: 19.

MONDAY: Brighter skies. Still well below Average. Winds: SE 8-13. Wake-up: 9. High: 25.

This Day in Weather History

November 15th

1976: So far this year there were over three thousand forest fires in Minnesota.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

November 15th

Average High: 42F (Record: 69F set in 1953)

Average Low: 28F (Record: 1F set in 1911, 1932, 1940)

Record Rainfall: 1.58" set in 1996

Record Snowfall: 5.1" set in 1956

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

November 15th

Sunrise: 7:10am

Sunset: 4:44pm

Hours of Daylight: ~9 hours & 33 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 2 minutes & 21 seconds

Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 21st): ~ 6 hour & 2 minutes

Moon Phase for November 15th at Midnight

0.3 Days Before Last Quarter Moon

National High Temps Tuesday

The weather outlook on Tuesday shows well below average temperatures continuing across much of the nation with readings nearly -10F to -20F below average.

National Weather Outlook Tuesday

The weather outlook for Tuesday shows a larger storm system developing across the Central US. Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible along parts of the Gulf Coast with areas of rain and snow moving into the Upper Midwest.

National Weather Outlook

The weather outlook through Wednesday shows a decent storm through the Central US with areas of thunderstorms and rain across the Southern and Southeastern US, while areas of snow will be found across the Midwest and Great Lakes.

Extended Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, soggy weather continues across the Gulf Coast and into the Northeast. There will also be areas of heavier precipitation across the Great Lakes.

Snowfall Potential

According to the ECMWF (European model), snow accumulations will be possible across the nation as we head through, what will be, a very chilly middle part of November for many nationwide.

Climate Stories

"Tiny Particles in The Air May Trigger Sudden Heart Attacks, Study Suggests"

"Nearly a decade's worth of data collected across Singapore suggests increased concentrations of tiny particles in the air can trigger cardiac arrests, making the need to cut air pollution levels around the world even more urgent. Researchers looked for particles at least 25 times smaller than the width of a human hair known as PM2.5 particles (for 2.5 micrometers in diameter). Their small size means they can be easily inhaled, and they've been linked to a host of health problems, including autoimmune diseases. Here, pollution levels in Singapore were tracked against more than 18,000 reported cases of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) between July 2010 and December 2018. Through statistical analysis, 492 of the cases could be attributed to increases in PM2.5 concentrations."

See more from Science Alert HERE:

"A TRIO OF SATELLITES COULD TAKE A GROUNDBREAKING 360-DEGREE PHOTO OF THE SUN"

"THE SUN IS active, dynamic, and occasionally violent. Unfortunately, our view of the Sun is limited to a small handful of orbiting satellites and ground-based observatories. The Solar Ring is a new proposal that hopes to radically change that picture by launching a trio of satellites around the Sun to give continuous, 360-degree panoramic images in real time. The observatory could revolutionize our understanding of our parent star. Despite being the closest star to us, we still lack an understanding of most of the physics of the Sun. While we understand the general picture — that the Sun is powered by fusion reactions, and the energy circulates its way to the surface and is released in the form of radiation — we don't know the details. In particular, we do not understand mysteries like the origins of the 11-year sunspot cycle, the incredibly high temperature of the Sun's corona, or how solar flares and coronal mass ejections take place."

See more from Inverse HERE:

What is a flash drought? An earth scientist explains

"Many people are familiar with flash floods – torrents that develop quickly after heavy rainfall. But there's also such a thing as a flash drought, and these sudden, extreme dry spells are becoming a big concern for farmers and water utilities. Flash droughts start and intensify quickly, over periods of weeks to months, compared to years or decades for conventional droughts. Still, they can cause substantial economic damage, since communities have less time to prepare for the impacts of a rapidly evolving drought. In 2017, a flash drought in Montana and the Dakotas damaged crops and grasses that served as forage for cattle, causing US$2.6 billion in agricultural losses. Flash droughts also can increase wildfire risks, cause public water supply shortages and reduce stream flow, which harms fish and other aquatic life."

See more from The Conversation HERE:

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