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New 30-Year Averages Shows Warmer And Wetter Twin Cities Weather - But Less Snow
On Tuesday, NOAA released the new 30-year averages for the United States, now going from 1991-2020 vs. the previous 1981-2010 averages. These new normals now reflect warmer conditions for the Twin Cities (up 0.7F from the previous averages) as well as wetter weather (up 1.01" from the previous averages). However, we are observing less snow (down 3.2" from the previous averages). The snowiest month of the year is now December vs. January. You can read more from the Minnesota State Climatology Office (which is where the previous image comes from) by clicking here.
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Friday Weather Outlook
A bright and sunny day is expected in the Twin Cities Friday, with morning temperatures starting off around 40F before climbing into the upper 50s.
Sunny skies and below-average temperatures are expected across the state to end the workweek, with highs up to 10F degrees from average. These highs will range from the 40s in portions of the Arrowhead to the low 60s in southwestern Minnesota.
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Mother's Day Weekend
Here's another reminder: this weekend is Mother's Day weekend! The good news is we will see dry weather throughout the weekend, with more sun Saturday vs. more clouds Sunday. Highs will remain below average as we head through the weekend, reaching the low 60s Saturday but stuck in the mid/upper 50s Sunday.
Quiet weather is expected across the state for Mother's Day on Sunday, with highs mainly climbing into the 50s. Some 40s will be possible near and along the North Shore, and a few 60s may pop up in southwestern Minnesota.
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Drought Update
Drought conditions continue across southern and northwestern Minnesota according to the latest Drought Monitor update issued Thursday. The percentage of the state under these conditions hasn't changed much since last week, with Severe Drought remaining the same and Moderate Drought only decreasing by 1.3%.
Since the beginning of 2021, portions of central and northern Minnesota are up to an inch above average precipitation-wise. Meanwhile, areas out toward Fargo and down into southern Minnesota and northern Iowa are at least 2" below average.
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Cool Weather Delays Severe Storm Season
By Paul Douglas
A 2002 paper suggested that 39 percent of America's GDP is "weather-sensitive", subject to the whims of Mother Nature. Agriculture, utilities, transportation, recreation and the insurance industry are all impacted.
NOAA reports a record 22 separate billion-dollar weather disasters in 2020. Worldwide, 2020 brought a record 50 separate billion-dollar disasters.
Which is to say I'm taking this exasperatingly cool stretch of weather in stride. It has been too cool, dry and stable aloft for severe storms. I miss the warm fronts, but not quality time spent hunkering down in my "bunker".
A nagging cool bias spills into next week with temperatures below average through midweek, before a surge of warmth the weekend of May 15-16. That's Minnesota's Fishing Opener Weekend, and models suggest 70s, gusty winds, sticky humidity and a few gangs of boisterous thunderstorms. Here's hoping the walleye are biting.
Pro tip: you can get a bad sunburn when it's in the 50s. It's all about sun angle, not temperature.
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Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast
FRIDAY: Partly sunny, breezy. Wake up 39. High 59. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.
SATURDAY: Clouds increase, PM showers south. Wake up 40. High 56. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind E 8-13 mph.
SUNDAY: More clouds than sun, a dry sky. Wake up 38. High 58. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind N 10-15 mph.
MONDAY: Intervals of sun, still cool-ish. Wake up 39. High 57. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NE 7-12 mph.
TUESDAY: Plenty of sunshine, milder. Wake up 41. High 63. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind W 8-13 mph.
WEDNESDAY: Patchy clouds, average temperatures. Wake up 45. High 67. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind SW 5-10 mph.
THURSDAY: Sunny start, late T-storms. Wake up 47. High 70. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind SW 5-10 mph.
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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
May 7th
*Length Of Day: 14 hours, 32 minutes and 47 seconds
*Daylight GAINED Since Yesterday: ~2 minutes and 33 seconds
*When Do We Climb To 15 Hours Of Daylight? May 19th (15 hours, 0 minutes, and 40 seconds)
*When Is The Sunrise At/Before 5:30 AM?: May 30th (5:30 AM)
*When Is The Sunset At/After 8:30 PM?: May 11th (8:31 PM)
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This Day in Weather History
May 7th
1916: Strong winds sweep across the state and cause dust storms over southern Minnesota. Great damage is done to standing timber in Northern Minnesota. Many fires develop, one of which would destroy 30,000,000 feet of lumber.
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National Weather Forecast
On Friday, a few areas of low pressure stretching across the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic will produce some showers and storms, with some snow in the northern Great Lakes. A system moving through the Northern Plains will bring some rain and higher elevation snow to the region.
Portions of the Northern Plains, Florida, and Northeast could see 1-2" of rain through the first half of the weekend. Looking at snow, some of the northern Rockies and Cascades could see up to about a foot or foot and a half of snow,
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Winter Didn't Douse All Wildfires In Sequoia National Park
More from the National Parks Traveler: "Winter, surprisingly, didn't douse all of last year's wildfires in Sequoia National Park in California's High Sierra. Recently, National Park Service scientists and fire crews were surveying the effects from the 2020 Castle Fire in Sequoia National Park when they observed a still smoldering and smoking giant sequoia tree that appears to be caused from last year's fire. There are no current threats to life or property and fire managers are prepared to take action if conditions warrant. The burning giant sequoia is well inside of any fire lines and is away from any trails. It is located in the Board Camp Grove and there is no direct access via any trail system. However, it may be still visible from the Ladybug Trail that leaves eastbound from the South Fork Campground at the southern end of Sequoia."
Cleaner 'Bridge' Fuels Are Killing Up To 46,000 Americans Per Year, Study Shows
More from HuffPost: "Burning natural gas and wood instead of coal was supposed to be a bridge to a safer future, where heat and electricity came from sources that didn't generate as much pollution. But new research suggests the alternative fuels are less of a bridge and more of a staircase. A new Harvard University study found that, in at least 19 states plus Washington, D.C., burning gas now kills more people than coal because of exposure to a deadly type of fine particulate matter known as PM2.5 that lingers in the air and lodges in lung tissue. The study, published Wednesday in the journal Environmental Research Letters, found 47,000 to 69,000 premature deaths each year that could be attributed to emissions from things like buildings, power generators and industrial boilers. Of that, fumes from gas, wood and biomass were responsible for between 29,000 and 46,000 deaths."
'Uncertainty is not our friend': Scientists are still struggling to understand the sea level risks posed by Antarctica
More from the Washington Post: "Scientists struggling to understand the threat of sea level rise on a warming Earth found Wednesday that amid lingering uncertainty, this much is clear: Meeting the goals of the Paris climate agreement remains humanity's best hope for preserving current coastlines in the 21st century. At the same time, they diverged over the risks posed by the biggest wild card, the Antarctic ice sheet, which contains by far the most ice on the planet and holds the potential to unleash tens of feet of sea level rise. Ice losses from Antarctica have been accelerating in recent years, and research suggests that in warm periods in the Earth's past (similar to the one that humanity is now fueling), the ice sheet shed a great deal of its mass. But a central issue is how fast that could occur this time around and whether today's computer simulations can adequately capture what will really happen, especially during the lifetimes of people currently living."
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Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).
- D.J. Kayser
