Paul Douglas On Weather
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Frost Advisory - AM Wednesday


WHAT...Temperatures as low as 33 will result in frost formation.

WHERE...Portions of east central, north central and northeast Minnesota and north central and northwest Wisconsin.

WHEN...From 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Wednesday.

IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if left uncovered.

ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Frost will develop in low-lying areas. Temperatures near Lake Superior will likely remain above 33 degrees.

Low Temps AM Wednesday

It'll be a chilly start on Wednesday with temps dipping into the 30s and 40s across the state. There could be areas of patchy frost across northeastern Minnesota, where Frost advisories have been issued. The Twin Cities will see a low temp in the mid 40s, which could be the coldest reading in the metro since May 20th, nearly 3.5 to 4 months ago.

Fall Color Update

Here's a picture from A. Langhorst who visited Moose Lake State Park not too long ago. It looks like fall colors are already starting to show. With cooler nights ahead, the fall color palette will begin to rear its head with more vigor. It won't be long now!

Fall Color Update

According to the MN DNR, there is already a little fall color showing up across parts of the state. Note that peak color typically arrives along the International border around mid to late September. It could be a little later this year, but cooler nights ahead will help to get the fall colors underway.

Typical Peak Fall Color

According to the MN DNR, typical peak color arrives across the international border mid to late September with peak color arriving near the Twin Cities late September to mid October. It won't be long now and you'll be able to find your favorite fall color in a backyard near you.

Billion Dollar Disasters So Far in 2023

"2023 in Progress… In 2023 (as of September 11), there have been 23 confirmed weather/climate disaster events with losses exceeding $1 billion each to affect United States. These events included 2 flooding events, 18 severe storm events, 1 tropical cyclone event, 1 wildfire event, and 1 winter storm event. Overall, these events resulted in the deaths of 253 people and had significant economic effects on the areas impacted. The 1980–2022 annual average is 8.1 events (CPI-adjusted); the annual average for the most recent 5 years (2018–2022) is 18.0 events (CPI-adjusted)."

See more from NOAA HERE:

Comet Nishimura in the Night Sky

"Can you still see new comet Nishimura? Early risers might have had their the final opportunities over this past week to glimpse comet C/2023 P1 (Nishimura). The comet has been visible toward the east-northeastern horizon shortly before sunrise. But the comet is approaching the sun in its orbit – and in our sky – and so, although it's continuing to get brighter, it's also getting closer to the sunrise. After about Sunday, September 10, 2023, Comet Nishimura is going be increasingly difficult to observe. Comet Nishimura – that great icy ball moving through space, which so many are now capturing on film – will be closest to Earth on September 12. And it'll be closest to the sun (perihelion) on September 17. It has been displaying a long, beautiful tail! But its long tail shows up only on long-exposure images. Still … wow!"

See more from Earth Sky HERE

Hurricane Lee in the Atlantic

Here's a look at Hurricane Lee from Tuesday, which was still a major hurricane with sustained winds of 115mph. At one point early Friday morning, Lee was a major category 5 storm with sustained winds of 165mph and a central pressure down to 924mb. Lee is expected to slowly weaken over the coming days, but will make a close call with Bermuda and the Northeastern US.

Tracking Lee

According to NOAA's NHC, the track for Lee keeps shows a gradual weakening phase through the end of the week as it slides west of Bermuda late Thursday into Friday. Lee will approach the Northeastern US as a potential hurricane with fairly significant impacts along the coast before raining itself out as a Tropical Storm in Eastern Canada.

September 10th: Peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th, but did you know that the typical peak is September 10th? This is when the Atlantic Basin has had the most hurricanes and named storms since records began. This is also when weather conditions are at optimal levels for these types of storms.

Typical Tracks and Points of Origin
(September 11th - 20th)

Here's a map of all the tropical cyclone points of origin and their tracks from September 11th to the 20th from 1851 to 2015. As you can see, it has historically been a very active time period with tropical systems developing just about anywhere in the basin.

6th Most 90F Days on Record at MSP

It has been a hot summer with (32) days with highs at 90F degrees or warmer. This is the 6th most number of 90F degree days on record, the most recent being 1988 when there were 44 days.

Number of 90F Days So Far This Year

Here's a list of all the 90F degree days that we've seen so far this year. The hottest days, were back to back on August 22nd and 23rd, when the MSP hit 98F and heat index values peaking around 110F to 120F around the metro. We also hit 98F on September 4th, but the dewpoint wasn't as high, so the heat index wasn't as intense. Uffda!

Average Number of 90F Days At MSP

Looking at the last 30 years, the average number of 90F days at the MSP Airport is (14). July is the hottest month with an average of (6) 90F days. This year we've had (23) 90F days, last year we had (18) days in the 90s and in 2021 there were (27) days in the 90s. The most number of 90F days in any single year was (44) set in 1988.

90 Day Precipitation Anomaly

On average, the wettest time of the year is in the summer, with the months of June, July and August seeing nearly 13" of rain at the MSP Airport. If we take a look at the 90 day precipitation anomaly, which dates back to early to mid June, some locations are nearly -3.00" to nearly -7.00" below average (in red/pink). Note that some locations across southeastern Minnesota are nearly -8.00" to -10.00" below average.

Drought Update

Drought continues and expanded from last week with a little more than 1% of the state in an Exceptional drought. Nearly 16% of the state is now in an Extreme drought, while 40% of the state is in a Severe drought, which includes much of the Twin Cities metro. 3 months ago, 72% of the state was considered abnormally dry, with nearly 12% in a moderate drought.

Weather Outlook For Wednesday

The weather outlook on Wednesday shows temps warming into the 60s and 70s across much of the state, which will still be a little cooler than average, but will be a little warmer than it was on Tuesday. Despite readings being a little cooler than average, It'll be a very comfortable and sunny day.

Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Wednesday

The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Wednesday, September 13th will be a little chilly for mid-September with temps warming into the mid/upper 60s. Much of the day will be dry and sunny with few clouds.

Meteograms For Minneapolis

Weather conditions for Minneapolis on Wednesday will be quite chilly in the morning with readings starting in the mid 40s, which will likely be the coldest temps we've seen since May 20th. Afternoon highs will warm into the mid/upper 60s under mostly sunny skies. East to southeasterly winds will be pretty light around 5mph to 10mph.

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

The 5 day temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows a fairly decent warmup from Wednesday to Thursday. We'll be nearly 5F cooler than average on Wednesday with highs in the upper 60s, but will warm to near 80F on Thursday, which will be nearly 5F to 10F above average for this time of the year. Later this week and into the weekend, we'll see more average readings in the lower 70s.

Comfy Dewpoints into Early September

The max dewpoint forecast for Minneapolis over the next several days shows very comfortable and fall-like readings in the 50s.

Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

The 7 day extended weather outlook through mid month shows temps warming into the upper 60s Wednesday, which will be below average for mid September, but we'll warm to near 80F on Thursday, which will be above average. Temps will return to near normal levels as we approach the weekend with a few showers possible on Friday.

More Comfortable Temps Ahead

According to NOAA's National Blend of Models, temperatures over the next several days will be quite nice with readings generally in the 70s through mid month. After a chilly morning on Wednesday, we'll see a nice warming trend into the 70s and near 80F at times through mid month.

Weather Outlook

The weather outlook in the Midwest over the next several days. There could be a few showers on Friday, but it turns dry for an extended stretch once again. Meanwhile, Hurricane Lee will slide north through the Western Atlantic and will bring gusty winds, heavy rain and a significant surf to parts of the Northeast and Eastern Canada.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows Warmer than average temperatures across much of the Nation with the exception of the Western & Southwestern US, where cooler than average temps will be found.

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, more active weather will develop across the Midwest from the 20th to the 26th.

Predicting Weather is Like Fantasy Football
By Paul Douglas

Hey, I meant to ask how your fantasy football team is doing? You did have Aaron Rodgers out for the season with a torn Achilles heel after 4 snaps as a Jet? Wow. When pondering the future there are unknowable unknowns. For football it's injuries. For weather it's a lack of data and weather model physics that isn't quite perfect.

What strikes me about this summer beyond the intensity and scope of heat, fire and smoke is the flooding. From China and Hong Kong to Spain, Greece and Libya the scope of severe flooding is mind-boggling. Better reporting via social media or an actual increase in catastrophic flooding? Experts say both. Symptoms of a warming atmosphere and warmer oceans.

Warm Atlantic Ocean water make keep "Lee" stronger, longer, brushing New England as a hurricane by Saturday.

We expect comfortable sunshine today and 80 degrees tomorrow before a few light showers push across the state Friday. I see comfortable sunshine and 70s this weekend with 80s next week. No weather drama at home anytime soon.

Extended Forecast

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny, pleasant. Winds: SE 8-13. High 68.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear & quiet. Winds: ESE 5-10. Low: 53.

THURSDAY: Sunny and warmer. Winds: S 10-15. High 80.

FRIDAY: Morning showers, then some clearing. Winds: NW 8-13. Wake-up: 60. High 76.

SATURDAY: Intervals of sunshine, comfortable. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 56. High: 74.

SUNDAY: Plenty of sunshine. Winds: NW 8-13. Wake-up: 53. High: 73.

MONDAY: Warm sunshine. Winds: SE 8-13. Wake-up: 55. High: 77.

TUESDAY: More sunshine, toasty. Winds: SE 8-13. Wake-up: 58. High: 83.

This Day in Weather History

September 13th

1994: Lightning strikes and injures a 35 year old man in Stearns County as he opens the door of his truck. Witnesses said he was thrown 10 feet when the lightning bolt struck him.

1834: Smoke fills the sky at Ft. Snelling due to fires burning nearby.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

September 13th

Average High: 74F (Record: 95F set in 1939)

Average Low: 56F (Record: 33F set in 1890)

Record Rainfall: 1.29" set in 1921

Record Snowfall: NONE

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

September 12th

Sunrise: 6:49am

Sunset: 7:28pm

Hours of Daylight: ~12 hours & 39 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: 3 Minutes & 5 Seconds

Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 21st): ~ 2 Hour & 58 Minutes

Moon Phase for September 13th at Midnight

0.8 Days Before New Moon

National High Temps on Wednesday

Temperatures on Wednesday will be a little cooler than average across the Central US, which is much different than it was a few weeks ago, when we had widespread dangerous heat concerns. Scattered showers and storms will be found in the Southwestern US, where areas of heavy rain will be possible.

National Weather Wednesday

The weather outlook on Wednesday will be unsettled from the Northeast to the Gulf Coast States. There will be areas of heavy rain across the Southern Plains and into the Southwestern US.

National Weather Outlook

The weather outlook through Thursday shows areas of unsettled weather continuing along the East Coast. There will also be scattered showers and storms from the Intermountain West to the Southern US.

Extended Precipitation Outlook

The extended precipitation outlook shows areas of heavy rainfall across the Central and Southern Plains. There will also be areas of heavy rain across the Northeast from Hurricane Lee by next weekend.

Climate Stories

"Summer 2023 broke dozens of all-time monthly heat records"

"Dozens of places from Arizona to Florida had their hottest months on record during one of the most scorching stretches in U.S. history, a disaster cataloged in the national climate summary for summer 2023 released by NOAA on Monday. Many folks from Detroit to Boston experienced a summer near or slightly cooler than average, but that didn't comfort others across rapidly growing Sun Belt states. For many of them, the period from June to August was a brutal ordeal, their hottest three-month stretch ever endured. Averaged across the contiguous 48 U.S. states, summer 2023 was the 15th-hottest in 129 years of record-keeping, according to NOAA. Louisiana saw its hottest summer on record, and it was a top-10 hottest in six other states, as shown in Figure 1. No state had a top-10 coolest summer on record."

See more from Yale Climate Connections HERE:

"Model shows life-threatening heat events will happen more often and in more places as the world warms"

"A team of climate scientists at the Woodwell Climate Research Center in the U.S., working with a colleague from the Environmental Change Institute in the U.K., has found via climate modeling that many more life-threatening heat events are likely to happen around the world. In their study, reported in the journal Science Advances, the group used climate models and data from weather stations to make predictions about the number of places that will see serious heat events when global temperature landmarks are reached. In 2010, a pair of climate scientists, Steven Sherwood and Matthew Huber, conducted experiments to find the upper limits of human survivability under heat stress. They used what has come to be known as the wet bulb test, in which a wet towel was placed over a thermometer to represent 100% humidity and temperatures were raised."

See more from HERE:

"5 Asteroids—Some As Big As A Plane—Will Pass By Earth This Week: What We Know"

"Five asteroids will pass by Earth this week, but researchers say because of their size, they're not an imminent threat. Four of the five asteroids will pass by Earth on Friday: RG, RH, QC5 and GE, NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory reports. First discovered in 2023, RG is a bus-size asteroid and will come within 1.02 million miles of Earth; RH is the size of a plane, was first discovered in 2023 and will also come within 1.02 million miles of Earth; QC5 was first found in 2023, is the size of a plane and will come within 2.53 million miles of Earth; and GE was first observed in 2020, is bus-sized and will come within 3.56 million miles of Earth. RL, a bus-size asteroid first observed in 2023, will pass by Earth on Saturday and will come within 469,000 miles of the planet. Although the asteroids will fly by Earth within the next couple days, they don't pose any imminent threat because in order for them to be labeled as hazardous objects by NASA, they have to be coming within 4.6 miles of Earth—which they all are—and at least be around 492 feet in size, which none of them are close to. Though they won't be visible to the eye, NASA offers a virtual asteroid tracker to watch where in the solar system each asteroid is in realtime."

See more from Forbes HERE:

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