Paul Douglas On Weather
See more of the story

Saturday Weather Outlook

We should see fairly sunny skies as we head into Saturday in the Twin Cities, with morning temperatures starting off in the upper 30s before climbing into the mid-50s for highs. Always great to have a nice weather day as we head into the weekend, right?

We should see much of the same statewide - a lot of sunshine with just a few clouds. Highs will generally be in the 50s, with a few 40s up in northern Minnesota.

_______________________________________________

Looking Toward Sunday

Meanwhile on Sunday we will see warmer weather across southern Minnesota, with highs climbing into the 60s here in the Twin Cities. It'll be a different story in northern Minnesota as a cold front approaches during the morning hours, bringing some rain and snow showers and highs only in the 40s for places like Roseau and International Falls. That cold front will work south through the day, bringing showers to the Brainerd Lakes area by the evening.

_______________________________________________

Rain/Snow Sunday Into Monday

Here's a look at that precipitation associated with the frontal boundary as it moves across the state Sunday into Monday. Precipitation won't move into the metro until Sunday Night, lasting into Monday across southern portions of the state. Both rainfall and snowfall tallies appear to be on the light side at the moment. Loop runs from 7 AM Sunday through 7 PM Monday.

_______________________________________________

Cooler Early Next Week

That cold front will also bring in some cooler weather for the first half of next week, with highs only in the 40s expected - about 15F degrees below average. We should see some warmer weather move back in late next week with highs at least back in the 50s.

_______________________________________________

Drought Relief - But Rivers Are Rising

The good news is that the rain we've seen over the past couple weeks has greatly helped out the drought situation across the state. As of the update this past Thursday, only 43.67% of the state was at least abnormally dry, down from 85.14% the previous week. Moderate drought went down to 11.34% from 33.59%, with all Extreme drought (the second worst category) eliminated.

Most areas of Minnesota are running above average precipitation-wise so far this month, with International Falls and Baudette over 2" above their average through April 15th. The only climate location running below average is down in Rochester, where just over a half an inch of rain has fallen.

However, due to all the heavy rain, we are watching some elevated rivers across the region that are near flood stage.

There is a Flood Warning in place for the Mississippi River at Aitkin as the river is expected to rise above flood stage Friday evening, lasting through the weekend before cresting Monday morning.

_______________________________________________

Extreme Heat Exacts a Toll on Minnesota
By Paul Douglas

For 40 years I've referred to Minnesota as The Super Bowl of Weather, and for good reason. Few spots on the planet see the swings in temperature and moisture we do. Large extremes are often accompanied by severe weather outbreaks, flooding rains and damaging winds. An estimated 30 days a year are potentially life-threatening, with storms, floods, extreme wind chill or heat.

The Twin Cities National Weather Service points out that extreme heat is the third greatest cause of local fatalities since 1990. Only floods and tornadoes have claimed more lives. Nationwide an average of 219 have died from excessive heat maladies since 2010.

Our pattern looks cool and quiet in the coming weeks, with no hot fronts, but temperatures trending closer to average. Highs reach the 50s today & Sunday with some sun each day. Another chunk of Canadian air sparks a little wet snow Monday morning (enough already) with a few days in the 40s next week.

April is equal-parts kind and cruel. And 2021 will be no exception.

_______________________________________________

Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

SATURDAY: Peeks of cool sun. Wake up 39. High 56. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 10-15 mph.

SUNDAY: Clouds increase, nighttime showers. Wake up 38. High 57. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind W 8-13 mph.

MONDAY: A little morning snow? Clouds linger. Wake up 34. High 39. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.

TUESDAY: Brisk, more clouds than sun. Wake up 28. High 42. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NW 8-13 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny and chilly. Wake up 29. High 45. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.

THURSDAY: Mix of clouds and sunshine. Wake up 31. High 52. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SW 8-13 mph.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy and cool. Wake up 36. High 55. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind S 10-20 mph.

_______________________________________________

Minneapolis Almanac And Sun Data
April 17th

*Record Snow Depth: 9" in 2018

*Length Of Day:13 hours, 37 minutes and3 seconds
*Daylight GAINED Since Yesterday:~2 minutes and 58 seconds

*When Do We Climb To 14 Hours Of Daylight?April 25th (14 hours,0 minutes, and 21 seconds)
*When Is The Sunrise At/Before 6:00 AM?: May 2nd (6:00 AM)
*When Is The Sunset At/After 8:30 PM?: May 11th (8:31 PM)

_______________________________________________

This Day in Weather History
April 17th

1965: The Mississippi River at St. Paul has a record crest, 4 feet above the previous record. High water records would be set all the way down to Missouri in later days.

_______________________________________________

National Weather Forecast

On Saturday, an area of low pressure with a slow moving frontal boundary in the southern United States will continue to bring heavy rain to areas of the Gulf Coast and Southeast. A departing system in New England will still bring some rain and snow to the region. Some rain and snow will also be possible in the Four Corners region.

An additional 1-4"+ of rain could fall through the weekend across portions of the Gulf Coast from Louisiana into northern Florida. Meanwhile, the higher elevations of New England could see up to 15" of snow from the system impacting the region Friday into Saturday.

_______________________________________________

Drought Threatens Spring Wheat in the Plains

More from Modern Farmer: "Things are dry and dusty in the Upper Midwest, the Northern Plains states and the Prairie provinces of Canada. This region, spanning states such as North Dakota and provinces such as Manitoba, is the most important one for spring wheat, the higher-gluten variety that's used for pasta or mixed with other wheat for all-purpose flour. And that crop is at significant risk, because conditions in the region are pretty dire this year. A combination of factors have combined to bring us to this point. This past winter was notably dry for much of the central and western parts of North America; in North Dakota, which leads the country in spring wheat production, it was the driest in 126 years, according to Successful Farming. In western Manitoba, reports Reuters, this winter was the driest in over a century."

Google Earth's new Timelapse feature shows chilling effect of climate change

More from CNN Business: "Google Earth users can now see the striking effect of climate change over the past four decades. Google's latest feature, Timelapse, is an eye opening, technical feat that provides visual evidence of how the Earth has changed due to climate change and human behavior. The tool takes the platform's static imagery and turns it into a dynamic 4D experience, allowing users to click through timelapses that highlight melting ice caps, receding glaciers, massive urban growth and wildfires' impact on agriculture."

California enlists surveillance satellites to sniff out greenhouse gas 'super-emitters'

More from the Los Angeles Times: "Years after former Gov. Jerry Brown pledged California would launch its "own damn satellite" to track planet-warming pollutants, the state plans to put not one, but two satellites in orbit to help it hunt for hard-to-find "super-emitters" of methane and carbon dioxide. In an announcement Thursday, a partnership of government and research organizations working under a newly formed nonprofit called Carbon Mapper said it is on track to launch the satellites in 2023 using $100 million in funding from philanthropic groups. The two satellites will be used to locate, quantify and make visible plumes of methane and carbon pollution, which remain major obstacles in the fight against climate change."

_______________________________________________

Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).

- D.J. Kayser