Paul Douglas On Weather
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Warmer, Not As Windy Monday

Another mainly sunny day with just some passing clouds is expected to begin the work week in the Twin Cities, with morning temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s and highs in the low to mid-80s. It won't be as windy either with winds out of the west around 5-10 mph.

While most of Monday will be sunny across the state (and western Wisconsin), we will have to watch the potential of some pop-up storms during the afternoon hours across northern areas (mainly Brainerd and northward). Highs will climb mainly into the 70s and 80s across the state, with temperatures a few degrees cooler along the North Shore.


Severe Threat Tuesday

As we head into the late afternoon hours on Tuesday, another round of showers and storms are expected to erupt - mainly across southeastern Minnesota into Wisconsin. A few of those could be strong with hail and wind, and due to that, a Marginal Risk (threat level 1 of 5) is in place.


Warming Up For Mid-Week

Temperatures will be on the climb as we head into the middle of the week, with highs warming through the 80s and potentially nearing 90F Wednesday and Thursday. A cold front puts a kibosh on the warming trend after that, helping to drop temperatures back into the upper 70s near 80F for Friday.

Meanwhile, an early look at temperatures for the extended Independence Day weekend shows low to mid-80s - definitely not too shabby!


Not Many Rain Chances This Week

We could use some moisture across much of southern Minnesota, as analysis from the HRAP shows a wide swath at least 1-3" below average over the past 30 days, including straight through the metro. You can see where some of the heaviest rain fell from the storms that impacted the region Thursday through Saturday, as areas near St. Cloud up into the Brainerd Lakes, east toward Mille Lacs, and west toward Ottertail, are several inches above average.

As we look out at the next seven days, the heaviest rain across the state is expected to fall up in the Arrowhead where up to three-quarters of an inch is possible. Under a quarter-inch of rain in the metro is expected to fall in the next week, mainly in three batches: Tuesday, Wednesday Night into Thursday, and then maybe Friday Night. With abnormally dry conditions already in place across the metro, we will have to see if we see an expansion (or even elevation into drought status) is issued across southern Minnesota later this week when it is released on Thursday.


Seasonably Warm and Sticky Week Ahead
By Paul Douglas

"What time will it rain on Saturday? Please be specific". I feel sorry for doctors and lawyers, because they're never "off". I'm in Santa Fe for my Navy son's church wedding, coming nearly 2 years after a backyard "Covid wedding" with just a handful of family members. I've noticed people get extra-stressed before weddings. Especially spouses of meteorologists. Hey, rain on your wedding day is good luck, right?

Rain on the 4th of July holiday weekend is not good luck, but weather models hint at a few showers and T-storms Sunday and Monday. It's too early for specifics, but expect weekend temperatures in the 80s, and right now Saturday looks like the sunniest, nicest day for outdoor stuff. Including weddings.

Today should rub you the right way with blue sky and less wind. A brief "heat spike" by midweek conjures up a few showers and T-storms. Temperatures may top 90F Wednesday and Thursday before cooling off a bit.

Getting married? Do yourself a huge favor and rent a nice tent. It's summer. It rains.


Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

MONDAY: Sunny and beautiful. Wake up 58. High 83. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind W 5-10 mph.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny, late T-storm possible. Wake up 65. High 89. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind SW 8-13 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Hot sunshine, late thunder. Wake up 64. High 91. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind S 10-20 mph.

THURSDAY: Sticky and unsettled. Few T-storms. Wake up 70. High 90. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind SW 10-15 mph.

FRIDAY: Sunny, breezy and less humid. Wake up 66. High 79. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.

SATURDAY: Best day? Sunny and quiet. Wake up 61. High 84. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 7-12 mph.

SUNDAY: Some sun, few PM T-storms. Wake up 64. High 85. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind S 8-13 mph.


Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
June 27th

*Length Of Day: 15 hours, 35 minutes, and 20 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 26 seconds

*When Do We Drop Below 15 Hours Of Daylight?: July 24 (14 hours, 58 minutes, 52 seconds)
*When Does The Sun Start Rising At/After 6 AM?: August 3rd (6:00 AM)
*Latest Sunset?: June 20 - July 2 (9:03 PM)


This Day in Weather History
June 27th

1908: A tornado hits Clinton in Big Stone County.


National Weather Forecast

Storm chances will be highest Monday from New England down the Eastern Seaboard and along the Gulf Coast. Some of the storm chances along the Gulf Coast will be due to a trough of low-pressure slowing drifting west this week that has a low chance of tropical formation. We will also see monsoonal storm chances in the Southwest.

Some of the heaviest rain through Tuesday will be due to those monsoonal showers and storms in the southwest, where some areas of New Mexico could see over 3" of rain.

Besides the potential area of formation in the northern Gulf of Mexico, we're watching another area in the central Atlantic that is better organized and has a high chance of formation over the next five days. This system will continue to drift westward, reaching the Windward Island Tuesday and moving into the southern Caribbean Sea during the middle of the week.


How drought is affecting watermelon season in Louisiana

More from KPLC-TV: "It's officially summer, and that means watermelons, but what has the drought done to local watermelon crops? Acres and acres of watermelon, that's what you'll see in the Sugartown area, which is known for growing these summertime fruits. A process that starts early as April first for the Lewis Produce farm. "Once you start your field, fertilize them, you lay your rows off, and plant all that, it's really just left up to the good Lord to water them and keep good sun on them and let mother nature work them like she's suppose to," farmer Charnel "Cash" Bailey said. Bailey explains that watermelon is a dry plant, that doesn't require to be manually watered or need much water to grow, but the lack of rain this year hasn't been good for the crop."

Louisiana's insurance market is collapsing, just in time for hurricane season

More from Grist: "Last week, Louisiana insurance commissioner Jim Donelon held a press conference to announce some very bad news. A few months earlier, a major insurance company called Lighthouse had gone bankrupt, leaving almost 30,000 homeowners in the state without storm coverage. The company went under thanks to last year's Hurricane Ida, which led to $400 million in damage claims, far more money than the company had on hand. It had been up to Donelon to find a new company to take over these abandoned policies, but no other company wanted them. In fact, other companies were fleeing the state en masse. "Unfortunately, the unprecedented level of damage from Hurricane Ida broke the backs of [these] companies," Donelon said at the press conference. "Right now, we are trying to stop the flow of companies exiting our state.""

Climate change negatively impacting bumble bees

More from Simon Fraser University: "Temperature changes have negatively impacted most species of bumble bees over the past 120 years, according to new research published this week in Biology Letters. The researchers note that changes in temperature had more of a negative impact than other factors - such as precipitation or floral resources. "Bumble bees are important pollinators for wild plants and for the crops humans rely on for food. That's why we need to develop conservation strategies that account for the future impacts of climate change on bee populations," says study lead Hanna Jackson, a Masters student in the M'Gonigle Lab in biological sciences at Simon Fraser University."


Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).

- D.J. Kayser