If you look at regular season records, there appear to be three remaining NFL teams in the same class — the 49ers, Packers and Chiefs — along with one outlier underdog, the Titans.
But advanced metrics — and the betting odds heavily influenced by those metrics — have instead divided the four conference title game participants into two neat groups of two. The Packers, despite tying for the NFC’s best record at 13-3, are heavy underdogs against the 13-3 49ers — more than a touchdown at 7.5 points.
And Green Bay has a worse chance to win the Super Bowl than the 9-7 Titans in some places you look.
One of those: FiveThirtyEight.com, which gives Green Bay just a 14% chance of winning the Super Bowl — less than Tennessee (17%), San Francisco (26%) and Kansas City (43%).
The Titans have already pulled two huge upsets over New England and Baltimore coming from the No. 6 seed, and Caesar’s Palace has the same spread (+7.5) on the Titans/Chiefs game as it does Packers/49ers.
The 49ers routed Green Bay 37-8 during the regular season, which carries some weight. Still, it’s surprising to see the Packers given so little respect.