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Halloween Extremes & Warming October Nights
Ghosts and ghouls might still haunt the streets for candy, but it seems like Halloween's getting a little cozier rather than spookier! According to a study by Climate Central, it turns out that across the United States, October nights have been getting warmer since 1970. That's right, a whopping 89% of the 244 cities they looked at have felt the heat creeping into their spooky season. It's not just a small change either; the average autumn temperature has risen by almost 3 degrees across the country. Specifically, those eerie October nights have warmed up by about 2.2 degrees on average! And hey, even in Minneapolis, known for its chilly Octobers, the nights have warmed up by a spine-tingling 3.8 degrees since 1970. Seems like the creatures of the night might be trading their capes for lighter clothes as the years go by!
KEY CONCEPTS
- Fall temperatures have warmed by 2.7°F on average across the U.S. since 1970.
- Fall warming can extend allergy and wildfire smoke seasons, and disrupt leaf-peeping.
- Warming trends have also taken the chill out of a fall tradition: trick-or-treating.
- From 1970 to 2022, October nights have warmed by 2.2°F on average across the U.S.
- Of 244 U.S. cities analyzed, 216 (89%) have seen October nights warm up since 1970.
- October nights have warmed by more than 2°F in 153 of the locations analyzed.
See more from Climate Central HERE:
Twin Cities Halloween Outlook
Here's a very early Halloween outlook for the Twin Cities on Tuesday evening. Note that temps will hover around 30F with feels like temps in the 20s thanks to breezy NW winds around 15mph.
Halloween Outlook Next Tuesday
The weather outlook for Halloween Tuesday looks quite chilly with readings only warming into the 20s and 30s across the state. This will be quite a bit below average for this time of the year. There will also be areas of snow and possibly minor accumulations for some.
Halloween climatology in the Twin Cities
"Halloween is typically a time of crunchy leaves on the ground, a bit of chill in the air, and lots of candy. High temperatures in the Twin Cities are generally in the 40s and 50s. It is more common for the daily high on Halloween to be in the 60s than in the 30s. 70s tend to be rare, with only eight Halloween high temperatures being 70 degrees or above or about one in eighteen years. The warmest Halloween on record was 83 degrees in 1950, with one of the coldest one year later with a high of 30 in 1951. The coldest Halloween maximum temperature was a bone-chilling 26 degrees back in 1873. The last twenty-five years have had some balmy Halloween afternoons, like the 71-degree F high in 2000. We've had some chilly ones as well, like in 2017, when the temperature never rose above 35 F at MSP. The area has not seen a Halloween washout, with measurable precipitation during the evening, since 1997. Measurable precipitation has occurred on Halloween only 26% of the time in the Twin Cities, or 38 times out of 145 years. The most rain recorded was in 1979 with .78 inches. In 1991 .85 inches of precipitation fell, which was snow. In spite of the 1991 Halloween Blizzard, measurable snow on Halloween is about as rare as getting a full-sized candy bar in your trick-or-treat bag. Since 1872 there's been enough snow to measure only six times: 0.6 in 1884; 0.2 in 1885; 1.4 in 1932; 0.4 in 1954; 0.5 in 1995; and of course 8.2 inches, with the opening round of the Halloween Blizzard in 1991. Thus there has been measurable snow on only 4% of the days."
See more from the MN State Climatology Office HERE:
Heavy Rainfall Since September 23rd
We've had some pretty incredible rainfall across parts of the state since September 23rd. In fact, some locations around the Twin Cities (highlighted in white and blue) have see nearly 10" of rain or more in a little more than 1 month!
Precipitation Outlook
The extended precipitation outlook through next week shows lighter precipitation amounts across the state over the next several days, but some of this could be in the form of snow.
90 Day Precipitation Anomaly
Thanks to some recent heavy rains parts of the state are now in a surplus over the last 90 days. Some of the biggest surpluses are showing up in blue in pockets across parts of central Minnesota, including the Twin Cities and into western Wisconsin. It has been a very soggy last 5 weeks.
Drought Update
Recent heavy rains have helped the drought situation quite a bit in spots across the state. With that being said, we're still in a drought across much of the state with more than 50% under a moderate drought (or worse). Nearly 96% of the state is still abnormally dry, but there have been improvements
Fall Color Update
According to the MN DNR, much of Minnesota is at or past peak. Fall colors will continue to rapidly change, so take a moment and enjoy the season while you can. Note that most leaves will vacate the premises in a few weeks and won't return until sometime in mid/late May...
See more from the MN DNR HERE:
Wisconsin Fall Color Update
Here's a look at the fall color report in Wisconsin. Fall colors are peaking in some areas and peak isn't far away in others.
See more from Travel Wisconsin HERE:
Typical Peak Fall Color
According to the MN DNR, typical peak color arrives across the international border mid to late September with peak color arriving near the Twin Cities late September to mid October. It won't be long now and you'll be able to find your favorite fall color in a backyard near you.
7 Day Atlantic Outlook
The 7 day outlook for the Atlantic Basin shows Tropical Storm Tammy still alive and will continue to drift East of Bermuda. Meanwhile, there is another tropical wave that has a medium chance of development over the coming days.
Past Peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th, but did you know that the typical peak is September 10th? This is when the Atlantic Basin has had the most hurricanes and named storms since records began. This is also when weather conditions are at optimal levels for these types of storms.
Weather Outlook For Sunday
The weather outlook on Sunday show temperatures warming into the 20s and 30s across the state, which will be nearly -15F to -20F below average for the end of October. Skies will be a little brighter than they were on Saturday.
Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Sunday
The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Sunday, October 29th will still be quite cold for this time of the year with readings only warming into the mid/upper 30s. This will be nearly -15F below average for this time of the year. Note that feels like temps will hover in the 20s for much of the day.
Meteograms For Minneapolis
Temperatures in Minneapolis will start in the upper 20s in the morning and will warm to the mid 30s by the afternoon, which will be nearly -15F below average for this time of the year. Sunday will be a dry day with somewhat brighter skies than what we had on Saturday. Northwesterly winds around 10mph to 15mph will make it feel like the 20s much of the day.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
The 5 day temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows temps running well below average over the next several days. Highs will only warm into the 30s and 40s, which will be nearly -10F to -15F below average for the end of October and early November.
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows cold weather lingering into the early part of November. We'll gradually warm into the low/mid 50s as we approach the end of the week/weekend, but we'll still be below average. There appears to be a chance of light snow on Halloween Tuesday and perhaps some rain/snow chances as we approach the weekend.
Colder Than Normal Lingers Into November
According to NOAA's National Blend of Models, temps will be significantly cooler over the next several days with highs only warming into the 30s and 40s. Overnight lows will be in the 20s over the next several days as well.
Weather Outlook
Weather conditions across the Central & Eastern US will be more active through the end of October. As we head into the early part of November, we'll have a series of clippers drifting across the northern tier of the nation with areas of rain and snow and possibly some minor accumulations.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows cooler than average temperatures across parts from the Great Lakes to the Northeast, while warmer than average temps will develop across much of the Western and Southern US.
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
The 8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook shows more unsettled weather across much of the nation including the Midwest.
Making Up For Hot Days In Early October
By Paul Douglas
Recently someone asked me why I put on snow tires when all-wheel drive is "good enough". Last winter the metro picked up 90.3". Third snowiest since 1884. Between October and April we experienced 84 days with at least some snow. On 21 of those days MSP picked up at least one inch. On 7 days 4" or more fell. And we had two separate days of 8"+.
Granted, it was a La Nina winter and an El Nino warm phase in the Pacific Ocean should (in theory) result in a drier, milder winter. But forgive me for not taking any chances.
The sun peeks out today with upper 30s, still a far cry from our normal high of 51F in the metro. Monday daytime should be dry, but a fairly vigorous Alberta Clipper rotates a pinwheel of slushy snow across the state Monday night into Tuesday morning. Halloween 2023 may start out with a coating to an inch of slush during the morning but possibly dry for Trick or Treating, with wind chills in the teens.
I see 40s by late week but 1 week from today more snow may fall. About those snow tires...
Extended Forecast
SUNDAY: Peeks of sun, chilly. Winds: W 10-15. High: 39.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear and cold. Winds: NW 10. Low: 25.
MONDAY: Cool breeze. Wet snow Monday night. Winds: SW 15-25. High: 38.
TUESDAY: AM coating - 1"? Gusty. Feels like 15F. Winds: NW 15-40. Wake-up: 28. High: 35.
WEDNESDAY: Some sun, a stiff breeze. Winds: S 10-25. Wake-up: 24. High 41.
THURSDAY: More sunshine, less wind. Winds: NW 7-12. Wake-up: 30. High 44.
FRIDAY: Clouds increase, light rain late. Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up: 34. High 47.
SATURDAY: Damp start, skies slowly brighten. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 35. High 40.
This Day in Weather History
October 29th
2004: Exceptionally muggy conditions for October are felt over much of the state. Dew points surged into the middle to upper 60's over central and southern Minnesota. Ladybugs are extremely active.
1955: Early snow hits the Twin Cities, accumulating to 2.2 inches.
1905: Several inches of snowfall accumulate in south central Minnesota. Snow totals included 7 inches at Fairmont, 6 inches at Farmington, 4.5 inches at Montevideo, 4 inches at Faribault, and 3 inches at New London.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
October 29th
Average High: 51F (Record: 78F set in 1922)
Average Low: 36F (Record: 15F set in 1925)
Record Rainfall: 1.01" set in 1896
Record Snowfall: 5.5" set in 1905
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
October 29th
Sunrise: 7:47am
Sunset: 6:06pm
Hours of Daylight: ~10 hours & 19 minutes
Daylight LOST since yesterday: 2 Minutes & 51 Seconds
Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 21st): ~ 5 Hour & 28 Minutes
Moon Phase for October 29th at Midnight
1.4 Days After Full "Hunters" Moon - Oct. 28 at 3:24 p.m. CDT "With the leaves falling and the deer fattened, it is time to hunt. Since the fields have been reaped, hunters can ride over the stubble, and can more easily see the fox, also other animals that have come out to glean and can be caught for a Thanksgiving banquet after the harvest. A partial lunar eclipse also occurs on this date. Unlike the May event, this one sees the moon brush the Earth's darker umbral shadow; at maximum (20:14 GMT) about 12% of the moon's diameter will be within the shadow, darkening its lower limb. The Earth's Eastern Hemisphere faces the moon when the eclipse takes place, however, Atlantic Canada will see the last of the umbra slip off the moon when it rises and sharp-eyed New Englanders will be able to perceive the faint shading of the penumbra as the moon appears above their horizon."
National High Temps on Sunday
Temps on Sunday will still be quite summer-like across the Southeastern US with readings running nearly +10F to +15F above average. However, much of the Central US will be well below average with readings running well below average for this time of the year.
National Weather Outlook For Sunday
The National Weather Outlook on Sunday shows unsettled weather across the Central US. Areas of rain and thunder will be possible along with locally heavy rain. Areas of snow will linger across the Front Range of the Rockies and across the Great Lakes and Northeast.
National Weather Outlook
The National Weather outlook through Monday shows wet weather across the Central US starting to fade through early next week. Cold Weather will settle in across the Eastern two-thirds of the nation.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
The extended precipitation outlook shows widespread rainfall across the Central US. There could be several inches of rain from Texas to the Northeast. There will also be another surge of heavy precipitation across the Northwest.
Extended Snowfall Outlook
According to the ECMWF weather model, areas of snow will be found across the Midwest and also across the High Elevations in the Central and Northern Rockies.
Climate Stories
"Everything We Know About 'Superfog' and How It Caused a 158-Car Pileup in Louisiana"
Wednesday's brutal 158-car pile-up in Manchac, Louisiana, is attributed to a weather phenomenon. Eight people are confirmed dead, and 63 were injured due to the pile-up. The scene from the bridge was like something from a disaster movie, as the charred remains of mangled vehicles betrayed the level of devastation. Shell Shocked Passers-by looked on shell shocked as cars burned, with dozens of motorists trapped in their vehicles. Later that night, Louisiana governor Bel Edwards asked for prayers for the victims amid other blood donation calls, while many asked how such a disastrous pile-up could occur.
See more from Wealth of Geeks HERE:
"This liquid crystal fabric is 'smart' enough to adapt to the weather"
Have you ever left the house without a jacket on a balmy day, only to regret overestimating your chilly weather tolerance? Instead of dashing back home for your coat, there may come a time in the near future when you simply use an app to control your clothing's level of insulation. Created by researchers at MIT, FibeRobo is a cheap, programmable, shape-changing smart fiber reliant on a liquid crystal elastomer (LCE). Among their many uses, garments imbued with their new LCE fiber could adjust their structure to become more insulated in colder temperatures, and vice versa for warmer weather. With an additional ability to combine with electrically conductive threads, a wearer could directly control their FibeRobo clothing or medical wearables like compression garments via wireless inputs from a controller or smartphone.
See more from Popular Science HERE:
"Tips to Conserve Your Energy and Help Prevent Outages During Extreme Weather Events"
"People use more energy during heat waves and winter storms. But high energy demand and compromised supply can lead to outages. Here's what you can do to prevent them and be prepared. Heat waves and winter storms combined with power outages are a dangerous recipe that can have tragic results. Extreme weather-induced power outages mean sweltering under relentless heat or freezing temperatures with no power to operate an air conditioner or heater. Texas, for example, has its own non-profit operated grid called ERCOT, so when much of the state saw its hottest July on record in 2022, officials there issued what's called a conservation appeal asking the public to reduce energy consumption during periods of extreme heat. This came on the heels of a power crisis in 2021 in the same state when a brutal winter storm crippled wind turbines and natural gas infrastructure that weren't adequately winterized. Gas-fueled power plants in Texas went down as a result, leaving millions cold and in the dark."
