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Tropical Storm Colin
Colin (unexpectedly) became the 3rd named storm of the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane season overnight Friday into early Saturday morning along the Carolina coast. It looked pretty disorganized, but gusty winds and areas of heavy rainfall will continue along the North Carolina Coast and Outer Banks into Sunday as Colin slowly pushes east.
Tracking the Tropics
Meanwhile, Bonnie is now in the Eastern Pacific and could potentially become a hurricane early next week south of Mexico. Keep in mind that Bonnie developed in the Atlantic Basin last week, so it's fairly rare to see crossover storms from one basin to the other.
4th of July Outlook
If you have parade or outdoor BBQ plans on Monday, it looks like there could be a few isolated t-storms through the day. Again, it won't be a washout, so you should be able to enjoy some time outdoors. Isolated thunderstorms may lingering into the evening for a communities, but hopefully most fireworks displays will be dry.
Severe Threat 4th of July Monday
According to NOAA's SPC, there is a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across the southern half of the state on Monday. The best chance of stronger storms will be later in the day with gusty winds, hail and heavy rainfall as the primary threats.
4th of July Outlook
The weather outlook for the 4th of July Monday looks unsettled across the state. Scattered showers and storms will be possible, some of which could be strong to severe later in the day with locally heavy rainfall. Highs will warm into the 70s and 80s across much of the state with some 90s possible in the Southwest corner. The high temp in the Twin Cities will warm into the upper 80s, which will be nearly +5F above average.
Spotty Thunder Chances This Week
Here's the weather outlook from 7AM Sunday to 7AM Tuesday, which shows somewhat unsettled weather in place over the next few days. None of the days will be washouts, but there will be times of inclement weather. The best chance of showers and storms will be overnight into the early morning hours.
Precipitation Potential Through Tuesday
Here's the extended rainfall potential through Tuesday. Several round of thunderstorms may be possible with locally heavy pockets of rain here and there across the region. Some locations could see up to an inch of rain or more through the holiday weekend.
Precipitation Departure From Average Since Jan. 1st
Here's the precipitation departure from average so far this year. Note the Twin Cities is more than -2.00" below average so far this year, but just an hour north, St. Cloud is more than +6.00" above average, which is good enough for the 9th wettest start to any year on record there.
Minnesota Drought Update
Here's the latest drought update across Minnesota. Thanks to a dry June across much of southern Minnesota, including the Twin Cities, abnormally dry conditions have popped up. There is even a sliver of moderate drought in extreme southern MN.
Sunday Weather Outlook
Here's the weather outlook for Sunday. Highs will warm into the 70s and 80s, which will be close to average for early July. There will also be a few showers and storms across the state, but it won't be a washout.
Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Sunday
The weather outlook for Minneapolis on Sunday shows temps warming into the mid 80F with spotty t-showers possible through the day. Dewpoints will be on the rise, which will make it feel a little more uncomfortable into the afternoon.
Meteograms for Minneapolis
The hourly temps for Minneapolis on Sunday shows temperatures starting in the mid 60s and warming to the mid 80s by the afternoon. Isolated showers and storms will be possible through the day with breezier south to southeasterly winds.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows at or slightly above average temperatures in the Twin Cities metro over the next few days. The warmest and most humid day will be the 4th of July Monday with highs warming into the upper 80s.
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended weather outlook over the next 7 days shows at or slightly above average temperatures through most of next week. there will also be rounds of showers and thunderstorms, especially through the first half of next week. Note that some of the rains could be locally heavy as well.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
According to the ECMWF & GFS extended temperature outlook, temps over the next few days will be near average. Temperatures look to gradually warm as we head into mid July with a few more 90s possible.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows above average temps across much of the Central US.
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows more active weather in place from the Desert Southwest to the Midwest and Great Lakes Region. This slightly more active weather will develop on the outer periphery of the dome of hot weather setting up in the Central US.
Holiday Rain Risk. A Few Strong Storms Tomorrow
By Todd Nelson, filling in for Douglas.
Joey Chestnut will compete in the 106th 4th of July Coney Island Hot Dog Eating Contest tomorrow, vying for an incredible 15th championship title. Last year he set a new world record devouring 76 hotdogs in just 10 minutes. He has been dubbed the wounded wiener warrior as this year he'll be competing on crutches. Good luck Joey?!
While one ponders how that is even possible, I generally tag out at 2footlongs. You can call me a "weenie" if you want, but to be "frank" I know my limits. Sorry, that joke was the "wurst".
If your Sunday plan calls for backyard BBQs, good news is that you should be able to fit it in. You may have to plan accordingly around a few nuisance t-showers, but it won't be a washout. The best chance of showers and storms arrives overnight with rain & rumbles likely through the first half of the day tomorrow. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a risk of isolated strong to severe storms later tomorrow as well.
MSP just had its 5th driest June on record, so the rain is welcomed & hopefully well timed!
Extended Forecast
SUNDAY: Warmer. Chance of rain & rumbles. Winds: SSE 5-10. High: 86.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Showers & storms overnight. Winds: SSE 5-10. Low: 70.
MONDAY: Scattered storms, some strong. Winds: SSW 5-10. High: 88.
TUESDAY: Warm & sticky. Another round of storms. Winds: ESE 5-10. Wake-up: 71. High: 86.
WEDNESDAY: Sun & cloud mix. Isolated t-showers. Winds: NNW 5-10. Wake-up: 68. High: 87.
THURSDAY: Summerlike. Afternoon rain risk. Winds: NNE 5-10. Wake-up: 68. High: 88.
FRIDAY: Not as unsettled. Not as humid. Winds: ENE 5-10. Wake-up: 67. High: 87.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Breezy south winds. Winds: SSE 10-15. Wake-up: 66. High: 88.
This Day in Weather History
July 3rd
1947: Tornadoes hit Marshall and Polk Counties.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
July 3rd
Average High: 83F (Record: 100F set in 1949 & 1990)
Average Low: 65F (Record: 47F set in 1967)
Record Rainfall: 3.70" set in 1879
Record Snowfall: None
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
July 3rd
Sunrise: 5:31am
Sunset: 9:02pm
Hours of Daylight: ~15 hours & 30 minutes
Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 51 seconds
Daylight LOST since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 7 minutes
Moon Phase for July 3rd at Midnight
2.8 Days Before First Quarter Moon
National High Temps Sunday
The weather outlook on Sunday shows at or slightly above average temperatures settling in across much of the Central US with some showers and storms as well. The coolest weather will be found along the West Coast with highs running nearly -5F to -10F below average for early July.
Severe Threat Sunday
According to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, there is a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms across the High Plains with large hail, damaging winds and even some tornadoes.
Severe Threat Monday
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has highlighted another risk of strong to severe storms across the High Plains and the Midwest.
National Weather Outlook
Weather conditions through the 4th of July Monday will be quite unsettled across the Front Range of the Rockies into the Midwest. Some of the storms could be strong to severe with locally heavy rainfall.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, areas of heavier precipitation will be found across the northern tier of the nation, through the Midwest, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Also note the heavy rainfall across the Mid-Atlantic States, this is in association with Tropical Storm Colin.
Climate Stories
"A mysterious rocket just slammed into the moon and no one knows who launched it"
"Space junk is a massive problem for NASA and other space agencies. Back in March, we reported on three tons of space junk hurtling towards the Moon. The junk was set to hit the side of the Moon facing away from our planet. Since those initial reports, more believe the junk was in fact a rocket that hit the Moon. The most intriguing part, though, is nobody wants to take the blame. NASA has a lot of plans for the Moon. From the Lunar Gateway to putting human boots back on the lunar surface, there are a lot of missions centered around it. Now, the Moon isn't a stranger to being hit by space junk. What's concerning is that nobody wants to take credit for the rocket that hit the Moon. This only raises more concerns about the current state of space junk flying around out there."
"A huge comet will make its closest approach to Earth in July. Here's how to watch it live."
One of the farthest active comets ever spotted will make its closest approach to Earth on July 14, and you can catch the action live online. Comet C/2017 K2 (PANSTARRS), called K2 for short, is finally making its way into view of Earth after the Hubble Space Telescope first spotted it in the outer reaches of the solar system in 2017. At the time, K2 was considered the farthest active comet ever spotted, although it was surpassed by a distant megacomet named Comet Bernardinelli-Bernstein last year. K2 will make its closest approach to our planet on July 14, at which time the comet will be approximately 168 million miles (270 million kilometers) from Earth. Viewers will be able to watch the comet's passage online by tuning into the Virtual Telescope Project's live webcast, beginning at 6:15 p.m. (2215 GMT) on July 14. You'll also be able to watch on Space.com, courtesy of the Virtual Telescope Project.
"The US government is developing a solar geoengineering research plan"
"The White House is developing a research plan that would guide and set standards for how scientists study one of the more controversial ways of counteracting climate change: solar geoengineering. The basic idea is that we might be able to deliberately tweak the climate system in ways that release more heat into space, cooling an otherwise warming planet. The move, which has not been previously reported on, marks the first federally coordinated US effort of this kind. It could set the stage for more funding and research into the feasibility, benefits, and risks of such interventions. The effort may also contribute to the perception that geoengineering is an appropriate and important area of research as global temperatures rise."
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