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Spotty Severe Threat PM Wednesday & Thursday
According to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, there is an isolated severe risk across parts of the region PM Wednesday. It doesn't look very widespread if anything at all, but there will be enough heat and humidity around to sprout a strong storm or two late in the day Wednesday. By Thursday, the best chance of any strong to severe storms will be southeast of the Twin Cities.
Weather Outlook From AM Wednesday into Tuesday
The HRRR Weather Model from AM Wednesday into midday Tuesday shows the potential of a few spotty showers and storms developing late Wednesday, some of which could be a little on the vigorous side if they get going. The best chance of showers and storms will be on Thursday across the southern part of the state and especially southeast of the Twin Cities metro, where pockets of heavier rain will be possible through Thursday Night.
Rainfall Potential Through AM Friday
Here's the NOAA's NDFD rainfall forecast through AM Friday, which shows the best chance of rain across southern Minnesota and especially southeast of the Twin Cities metro, where up to 1" tallies can't be ruled out. The Twin Cities metro looks to be largely missed with parts of northern Minnesota not seeing a drop.
Tropical Storm Bill in the Atlantic
Bill became the 2nd named storm of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season late Monday evening just east of North Carolina. The satellite image below showed Bill around midday Tuesday as it was quickly racing to the NE at 38mph. By Wednesday, Bill is expected to diminish as it lifts into the north-central Atlantic.
5 Day Tropical Outlook
According to NOAA's NHC, there were 3 areas of interest in the Atlantic Basin as of PM Tuesday, which included Tropical Storm Bill, the 2nd named system of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The other concern is the wave in the Gulf of Mexico that has a high likelihood of becoming a tropical system over the next 5 days as it lifts north toward the Gulf Coast States.
Tracking the Tropics
The IR Satellite Loop below was captured on Tuesday of the area of interest located in the Bay of Campeche. This is the system that has a high probability of tropical formation over the next 5 days as it lifts north toward the Gulf Coast States.
Watching the Tropics
The system in the Gulf of Mexico is expected to lift north toward the Gulf Coast States later this week and weekend ahead with gusty winds and areas of heavy rainfall. Here's the weather outlook from late week into the weekend.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
The extended precipitation outlook through the weekend shows areas of heavy rainfall across parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley and into the Gulf Coast States, where several inches of rain and flooding can't be ruled out.
Western MegaDrought
According to the US Drought Monitor, nearly 97% of the Western US is considered to be abnormally dry with 88% in a Moderate Drought, 75% in a Severe Drought, 55% in an Extreme Drought and 27% in an Exceptional Drought. 1 year ago, no areas were in an Exceptional Drought and only 2% was considered to be in an Extreme Drought
"7 Shocking Satellite Images Reveal the West's Megadrought"
"The 2021 megadrought is having major impacts on the ground. But to truly grasp the scope, you need to see it from space. The megadrought hitting the western United States has yielded no shortage of horror stories to start the dry season. Record heat last week has seared in drought, turning the region from an already well-done steak into a charred crisp. Almond growers are ripping up orchards, and 17 million endangered salmon are being shipped to the sea because rivers are too hot to navigate. Horror stories abound. But the toll of the megadrought is perhaps most visible in the state of reservoirs across the West, from California to Utah. Lake Mead hit a record low, touching a level not seen since the Hoover Dam was constructed. The images of boat docks sitting on now-dry land are visceral, but so too are the state of the West's reservoirs from space. The European Space Agency's Sentinel-2 satellite has captured astounding images of the West's reservoirs. Earther has taken snapshots from 2020 and 2021 of a number of reservoirs in California as well as Lake Mead and Lake Powell, the two largest manmade reservoirs in the West, which millions depend on. These shocking images show how quickly water supplies have deteriorated, and the risks facing the region as the dry season ramps up."
California Reservoir Levels
According to CA.gov most of the reservoirs located in California are running well below the historical average. Interestingly, Folsom Lake is sitting at 34%, which is the lowest out of any of the reservoirs located in the state and it continues to drop.
Minnesota Drought Update
"Little rainfall fell this week, except in some parts of far northern Minnesota where over an inch of rainfall was reported. Gunflint Lake (Cook County) and Orr (St Louis County) reported over 2 inches of rain. The heat this week coupled with the absence of rainfall in most places has accelerated produced drought concerns over many areas of the state. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor portions of 6 Minnesota counties are in severe drought, and 55 counties are designated in moderate drought, with the rest of the state drier than normal, but not yet in drought. Some areas of southern and western Minnesota have received less than 50 percent of normal precipitation for the year so far. Further the outlook models show continued trend for hot and dry through most of the rest of the month. Many lawns are already showing signs of browning, and some tress are under stress as well."
See more from Mark Seeley's Minnesota Weather Talk HERE:
Precipitation Percent of Average So Far This June
"Agriculture impacts: We are early in both the growing season and this drought, so agricultural impacts have been minimal to this point. The main impact messaged by the USDA is that the early June warmth promoted a rapid pace in crop development, though has begun to stress pastures. In both Minnesota and Wisconsin, about 75% of major crops were reported as being in good or excellent condition, with slightly lower percentages for the condition of pastures/rangeland as of June 7th. Hydrologic impacts: Being early on in this dry spell, we have yet to see significant hydrologic impacts. Fire hazards: In Minnesota, all but the counties that border Wisconsin have a fire danger rating from the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources as high or very high, with burn restrictions in place from St. Cloud on north in the state. In Wisconsin, the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources has all of western Wisconsin within a moderate fire danger with only daytime burning restrictions."
See more from the National Weather Service Drought Information Statements HERE:
Precipitation Month to Date
Here's how much precipitation we've had so far this month and despite a few heavy pockets of rain across the Dakotas, northern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin, much of central and southern Minnesota have not had much in terms of any appreciative rain. Interestingly, Rochester, MN & Mason City, IA have not seen a drop of rain yet this month!
Precipitation Departure From Average So Far This June
Here's the precipitation departure from average so far this month. Note that many locations from the central and northern part of the state down to the MN/IA border are at least -1.00" below average with Rochester, MN and Mason City, IA nearly -2.50" below average. Interestingly, this is the driest start to any June on record for Rochester, which again has not yet seen any rain yet this month.
Precipitation Departure From Average Since Jan. 1st
Many areas across the region are dealing with deficits with many areas several inches below average since the beginning of the year. The biggest deficits are located south and east of the Twin Cities across parts of Iowa and southern Wisconsin. With that being said, Madison, WI is sitting at its 5th driest start to any year on record, while Mason City, IA is sitting at its 6th driest start to any year on record.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
Here's the extended precipitation outlook from NOAA's WPC, which shows pockets of decent rainfall potential across parts of southern Minnesota and into central Wisconsin. Unfortunately, this rain chance won't arrive late week. Until then, it will remain hot and dry.
Hot & Dry June So Far in the Twin Cities
Through the first 14 days of June, the Twin Cities is running nearly +13.5F above average, which is the warmest start to any June on record. We've also only had 0.40" of rain, which is the 13th driest start to any June on record.
Warmest Start to June on Record Continues
Here's the top 15 warmest June 1st - 14th stretches on record. Note that this year is the warmest June 1st to 14th on record with an average temperature of nearly 81F !!
Low Humidity Continues
Here's a look at dewpoint values over the next several days, which shows a brief spike in dewpoints on Thursday as our next chance of showers and storms arrive. Dewpoints will rise to around 60F, which will feel a bit more sticky than it has over the last couple/few days. However, dry air will move in again late week and into the weekend ahead.
Wednesday Weather Outlook
The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Wednesday shows more warm and dry weather in place with high temps warming into the mid/upper 80s by the afternoon.
Minneapolis Meteograms
The meteograms for Minneapolis on Wednesday shows temps warming to around 80F by midday. High temps will warm into the mid/upper 80s in the afternoon, which will once again be nearly +5F to +10F above average. Winds will be breezy once again with gusts approaching 20mph out of the south-southeast.
Regional Weather Outlook for Wednesday
The weather outlook across the region on Wednesday looks rather quiet once again with high temperature readings warming into the 80s and 90s across much of the region, which will be nearly +10F to +15F above average.
Extended Weather Outlook for Minneapolis
The extended weather outlook for Minneapolis shows temps still warming into the upper 80s and around 90F through Thursday before a modest cool down moves in late week and into the weekend. Highs through Thursday will be nearly +10F above average and then closer to average through the weekend before cooler than average temps arrive early next week. Interestingly, we could dip down into the 70s next week, which will be the coolest temps we've seen since around Memorial Day.
Weather Outlook From AM Wednesday to AM Tuesday
The weather outlook from AM Wednesday to AM Tuesday, which shows spotty showers and storms possible PM Wednesday and Thursday close to home, but the best chance of more soaking rains arrive late weekend and into early next week.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows warmer than average temps across much of the western half of the nation. However, temps in the Midwest, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will be running cooler than average.
Great News! Soggy Father's Day Shaping Up
By Paul Douglas
I'm old enough to remember the poolside advice given to Dustin Hoffman in the movie "The Graduate". PLASTICS. When people ask me for career advice I whisper: "water management".
Too much water (11 of Minnesota's 22 "mega-rain" events since 1858 have come since 2000, according to the MN DNR) or not enough H2O. Drought is metastasizing in the west, with severe water shortages. What keeps me up at night? A big city running out of water or large populations evacuating due to wildfires and smoke.
After the hottest start to June on record I'm happy to announce a string of 70-degree highs next week. We should end the month on a more tolerable note. Showers and T-storms flare up late tonight and Thursday, mainly southern Minnesota. A sunny Saturday gives way to big puddles for Dad on Father's Day. The best chance of much-needed rain and a few storms comes Sunday. Chilly exhaust sparks 40 mph wind gusts during a very fall-like Monday, before warming up later next week. What a weird spring.
Extended Forecast
WEDNESDAY: Sunny, T-storms tonight. Winds: SE 8-13. High: 88.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy, chance of a T-storm. Winds: S 5-10. Low: 70.
THURSDAY: Steamy with a few T-storms. Winds: W 10-15. High: 90.
FRIDAY: Sunny, windy and warm. Winds: NW 15-35. Wake-up: 67. High: 87.
SATURDAY: Sunny, better outdoor day. Winds: NW 5-10. Wake-up: 62. High: 82.
SUNDAY: Heavy showers and T-storms. Winds: SW 15-25. Wake-up: 65. High: 79.
MONDAY: Gusty with a touch of autumn. Winds: NW 20-40. Wake-up: 61. High: 69.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny, comfortably cool. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 51. High: 68.
This Day in Weather History
June 16th
1992: A total of 27 tornadoes touch down across Minnesota, the second most in Minnesota history. The communities of Chandler, Lake Wilson, Clarkfield and Cokato are badly damaged. 80 million dollars worth of damage would occur, and Presidential disaster declarations would be made for many counties.
1989: Frost develops across Minnesota with crops destroyed on high ground in southeast Minnesota. Preston got down to 32.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
June 16th
Average High: 79F (Record: 97F set in 1933)
Average Low: 59F (Record: 43F set in 1961)
Record Rainfall: 2.16" set in 1935
Record Snowfall: 0.00"
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
June 14th
Sunrise: 5:26am
Sunset: 9:01pm
Hours of Daylight: ~15 hours & 36 minutes
Daylight GAINED since yesterday: ~ 21 seconds
Daylight GAINED since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 6 hours & 50 minute
Moon Phase for June 16th at Midnight
0.9 Before First Quarter Moon
What's in the Night Sky?
The bright star shining close to the waxing crescent moon on June 15, 2021, is Regulus, Heart of the Lion, in the constellation Leo. The following night – June 16 – the moon will have moved some 13 degrees (26 moon-diameters) east on the sky's dome, following its endless orbit around Earth. It'll be closer to Denebola, the Lion's Tail. If you look carefully and have a dark-enough sky, you can make out patterns in the stars near both Regulus and Denebola. Regulus is part of a pattern that looks like a backwards question mark, with Regulus – the brightest star in Leo – marking the bottom of this question mark pattern. This pattern of stars is called the Sickle. It's not a constellation but instead an asterism, or recognizable pattern on the sky's dome. Meanwhile, Denebola at the Lion's tail is part of a triangle of stars. As the moon continues to move from night to night, shifting eastward in front of the constellations of the zodiac, it'll move onward away from Leo. How can you find Regulus then? One way is to look for the stars of the Sickle. Another way is to use the bowl of the Big Dipper to find your way to Regulus, as shown on the chart below.
National High Temps Wednesday
The weather outlook on Wednesday shows well above average temps continuing across much of the central and western US. In fact, many locations will be nearly +10F to +20F above average with even hotter temps settling in across the Southwestern US with records possible through the rest of the week.
National Weather Outlook
The national weather outlook through PM Thursday shows fairly quiet weather in place across much of the nation on Wednesday. By Thursday, scattered showers and storms will begin to develop in the Central US with a few isolated strong to severe storms and pockets of locally heavy rain.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center there is a chance of locally heavy rainfall across parts of the Gulf Coast States as a tropical system develops and slides north out of the Gulf of Mexico. Areas of flooding will be possible there, while a few pockets of thundery downpours will be possible across parts of the Midwest, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Much of the Western US will remain dry and toasty over the next several days.
Climate Stories
"California's Drought Tests Its Climate Goals"
"The state must avoid blackouts without contributing to the extreme weather that makes it hard to avoid blackouts. PG&E Corp., having emerged last year from bankruptcy brought on by wildfires in northern California, has sold off as summer rolls around and the risk of blazes sparked by powerlines rises once more. About 85% of California is experiencing "extreme" drought or worse, and dry conditions stretch across much of the West. This challenge extends beyond just one utility, though. The drought is a test of California's decarbonization plans; the sort of extreme weather those plans aim to address in the first place. Hot, dry weather boosts demand for power, chiefly air conditioning. It also constrains supply. The three West Coast states are home to roughly half the country's hydropower capacity. The last time California experienced prolonged drought, from around 2012 to 2017, hydropower's share of its electricity generation plunged from more than a fifth to just 7% 1 . When that happens, plants running on natural gas tend to fill the gap. Indeed, chart the two power sources and they form a mirror image."
"During wildfires and hurricanes, a language gap can be deadly"
"The importance of translating emergency warnings is often a lesson learned too late. Living along the path of a wildfire, hurricane, or tornado is a terrifying experience under the best of circumstances, but it can be a particularly dangerous situation for people who primarily speak languages other than English. Maryam Kouhirostami knows that feeling well. In September 2019, the Iranian-born doctoral student was studying construction management at the University of Florida in Gainesville. Though she'd received an email warning from her school about Hurricane Dorian, which had just hit the Bahamas as a Category 5 storm, she had no idea what to expect. A friend had told her it would probably just be "a regular, rainy Florida day" where you could ride your bike down the street. The storm weakened significantly by the time it hit Kouhirostami's neighborhood, but it was still powerful enough to knock out her power for half a day. "It was scary, because I couldn't see outside what was going on around the city, I could just see through the window," she said. "It was heavy, heavy rain. I've never seen something like that in my country."
"Ice Shelf Breakup Causes Antarctic Glacier to Melt Faster; Sea Levels at Risk"
"The recent breakup of an Antarctic ice shelf is speeding up the ocean-bound descent of a glacier holding back at least a meter of sea level rise, according to new research. The findings may have implications for predicting when collapsing glaciers will raise sea levels and flood coastal cities. Pine Island, the focus of the study, is already the fastest-melting glacier in Antarctica. It is located at the base of a peninsula jutting out of West Antarctica and helps support an entire ice sheet in that region. "(Pine Island Glacier) has been on the radar of glaciologists for a long time because it drains a significant portion of the West Antarctic ice sheet, and it has been speeding up," said Michele Koppes, a University of British Columbia glaciologist who was not involved in the study. The speed of ice leaving Pine Island Glacier was relatively stable until 2017, when over the following three years, massive icebergs began breaking off the outer ice shelf that extends from the glacier past land and onto the ocean. Experts noticed that the glacial ice loss was accelerating. The speed at which the edge of the glacier was retreating and its ice was floating away was increasing. As the glacier continues to lose more ice, scientists ponder what will happen next."
"Even without new fossil fuel projects, global warming will still exceed 1.5℃. But renewables might make it possible"
"The International Energy Agency (IEA) last month made global headlines when it declared there is no room for new fossil fuel investment if we're to avoid catastrophic climate change. However, our new research suggests the horse may have already bolted. We found even if no new fossil fuel projects were approved anywhere in the world, carbon emissions set to be released from existing projects will still push global warming over the dangerous 1.5℃ threshold. Specifically, even with no new fossil fuel expansion, global emissions would be 22% too high to stay within 1.5℃ by 2025, and 66% too high by 2030. However, keeping global warming under 1.5℃ is still achievable with rapid deployment of renewables. Our research found solar and wind can supply the world's energy demand more than 50 times over."
See more from The Conversation HERE: