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Key Messages This Week
*Dangerous Cold Through The Upcoming Weekend
*Light Snow Potential Monday Night
*Plowable Snow Potential Wednesday & Thursday
Twin Cities December Stats
We're halfway through the month of December and temps are running a little above average through the first 17 days of the month. Precipitation is nearly 0.60" above average and snowfall is above average by a few inches as well. The next several days will be MUCH colder, so temps will likely trend below average with additional snow chances Monday and again Wednesday & Thursday.
Snow Depth
Thanks to our latest storm system, many places are reporting deep snowpack across the region. The heaviest being found across the Dakotas through the northern half of Minnesota into Wisconsin and the UP of Michigan. Meanwhile, 5" of snow covered the ground in the at the MSP Airport over the weekend. Duluth is reporting a snow depth of 27", which is the 4th deepest snowpack on record this early in the season.
Snow So Far This Season
Believe it or not, the Twin Cities has seen more than 23" of snow so far this season, which is nearly 9" above average since July 1st. Interestingly, this has been the 15th snowiest start to any season on record in the Twin Cities. (July 1st - December 17th). Incredibly, Duluth has seen more than 55" of snow this season, which is nearly 30" above average and the 3rd snowiest start to any season on record.
Simulated Radar Through Midday Sunday
After a cold and sunny day Sunday, Monday could feature a little light snow later in the day with minor amounts, which could be enough to make the afternoon/evening commute slippery and slow. The heaviest amounts will be found across the northern part of the state an into Wisconsin.
Snowfall Potential
Snowfall amounts will be fairly light across the Twin Cities and places south and west of the I-94 corridor. Meanwhile, 1" to 3" of fluff will be possible north and east of the I-94 corridor, especially closer to NW Wisconsin. Parts of the north shore will see another 6"+ through Tuesday.
ECMWF (European Model) - Big Storm Next Week?
According to the ECMWF (European Model), there could be a much larger storm system developing in the Midwest during the middle part of next week. If this verifies, it could be a very white Christmas. There is still a lot of uncertainty with this developing system, but it's one to watch, especially if you have travel plans next week.
GFS (American Model) - Farther South
According to the GFS, the storm will develop a little farther south, bringing the heaviest snow to the Central US, through he Ohio/Tennessee Valley and the Great Lakes late next week and into the weekend ahead. This too would cause major travel headaches for folks leading up to the Christmas Holiday Weekend next week.
Getting MUCH Colder
The temperature trend shows a significant surge of colder air settling in across the eastern two-thirds of the nation through much of the week and weekend ahead. This could be one of the coldest and potentially snowiest weeks leading up to Christmas in quite some time for folks east of the Rockies. Folks that have travel plans will want to pay attention to weather forecasts and prepare for extreme cold and snow.
Extended Temperature Outlook
The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows much colder temps in place through through the 2nd half of the month. The coldest days arrive midweek and linger through the upcoming Holiday Weekend. The last few days of 2022 could see a slight warming trend as we get closer to the freezing mark. After several days of very cold weather this week, that will feel like a heat wave.
Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Monday
The Twin Cities on Monday, December 19th will be colder than average once again with temps only warming into the mid/upper teens. Areas of light snow will develop later in the day, which could impact the afternoon/evening commute.
Weather Outlook on Monday
Temps across the region on Monday will be very cold once again with readings nearly -10F to -20F below average across the state. Even colder temps will be found across Western Minnesota and into the Dakotas, where temps will be nearly -25F below average.
Meteograms For Minneapolis
Temps on Monday will start off on a very chilly note with readings in the single digits. Temps will warm into the mid/upper teens by the afternoon with light snow developing through the 2nd half of the day. Southeasterly winds will be around 10mph through the day.
Hourly Feels Like Temps
Feels like temps through the day Monday will be very cold with readings hovering around 0F through midday. It may feel a little better late in the day with readings in the teens, but it'll still be quite cold.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
The week ahead will be well below average with temps anywhere from -10F to -30F below average. The coldest days arrive midweek and will continue through the upcoming weekend.
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
It'll definitely be MUCH colder over the next several days. Temps mid/late week may only warm into the single digits below zero, which will be some of the coldest air we've seen since February of 2021!
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
The ECMWF extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis over the next several days shows colder temperatures in place through the 2nd half of the month as well.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows cooler than average temps across the eastern half of the nation. Meanwhile, warmer than average temps will develop in the Western US.
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows more active weather in place across the northern tier of the nation and along the East Coast, while drier weather will settle into the Southwest.
Cold Snowstorms Are More Dangerous
By Paul Douglas
Since I was a wide-eyed 14 year old weather nerd I've tracked thousands of winter storms. All of them were distinct and uniquely maddening in their own way. Every storm was different; a chance to get it right (more or less) or "bust the forecast". People don't remember if you were off by 2 degrees on your high temperature prediction in August, but if you predict flurries and 8" of flurries falls, well - thoughts and prayers.
One thing I've discovered the hard way: cold storms are much more dangerous than warm storms, with surface temperatures close to 32F. Single digits or teens: powdery snow falls-more prone to blowing and drifting, and virtually impossible to melt with salt. The snow piles up faster and black ice potential is greater.
An inch of snow is possible today but I'm more concerned about a snowy surge Wednesday into Friday. Plowable amounts are possible with severe drifting as winds gust to 50 mph. Blizzard conditions are possible.
After a numbing subzero week, 30 (above zero) returns next week!
Extended Forecast
MONDAY: Inch of snow later today. Winds: E 5-10. High: 14.
MONDAY NIGHT: Chance of light snow. Winds: WNW 5. Low: -2.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny and brisk. Winds: NW 10-15. High: 6.
WEDNESDAY: Powdery snow, should be plowable. Winds: NE 10-15. Wake-up: -5. High: 5.
THURSDAY: Snow slowly tapers, drifting likely. Winds: NW 15-30. Wake-up: -6. High: 0.
FRIDAY: Very windy - ground blizzards? Winds: NW 20-50. Wake-up: -5. High: 2.
SATURDAY: Still gusty with blowing/drifting. Winds: NW 20-40. Wake-up: -2. High: 4.
SUNDAY: Sunny with less wind. Better travel. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: -6. High: 8.
This Day in Weather History
December 19th
1983: Record lows are set across central Minnesota with temperatures ranging from fifty degrees below zero to the upper twenties below zero. Mora set their record with a low of 52 below, with 42 below at Little Falls, 41 below at Jordan, St. Cloud, and Cambridge, and 39 below at Long Prairie, Milaca, and Stillwater.
1923: Unseasonably mild temperatures occur in Minnesota. Temperatures climb into the 60s at New Ulm.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
December 19th
Average High: 28F (Record: 52F set in 1923)
Average Low: 14F (Record: -29F set in 1983)
Record Rainfall: 0.51" set in 1968
Record Snowfall: 6.4" set in 1951
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
December 19th
Sunrise: 7:46am
Sunset: 4:33pm
Hours of Daylight: ~8 hours & 46 minutes
Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~12 seconds
Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 21st): ~ 6 hour & 50 minutes
Moon Phase for December 19th at Midnight
3.1 Days Before New Moon
National High Temps on Monday
The weather outlook on Monday will be colder than average across much of the nation. The coldest will be found across the High Plains, where some may not even warm above 0F during the day.
National Weather Outlook Monday
The weather outlook for Monday shows more active weather in place across the Central US and northern tier of the nation. Areas of snow will be possible up north with thunderstorms across the Southern US.
National Weather Outlook
Light snow accumulations will be possible across the Midwest and Great Lakes with Thunderstorms in the Southern US. There is a developing storm system in the Pacific Northwest that could dangerous cold east of the Rockies later this week. Blizzard conditions maybe possible across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes Region later this week.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, the extended precipitation outlook shows heavy precipitation across the much of the Eastern half of the nation. There will also be some heavy precipitation across the Gulf Coast States and the Pacific Northwest.
Snowfall Potential
According to the ECMWF (European model), heavy snow will be possible over the next several days across the northern tier of the nation. Next week could certainly bring a wallop of snow somewhere east of the Rockies, which could mean messy traveling for some. Stay tuned...
Climate Stories
"Surprising loss of sea ice after record-breaking Arctic storm is a mystery to scientists"
"Although models accurately predicted the evolution of the Arctic storm, scientists were surprised to see just how much sea ice thickness decreased in the storm's aftermath. Early in 2022, the Arctic experienced its strongest cyclone on record, with wind speeds reaching 62 mph (100 km/h). Although storms aren't rare in the Arctic, this one led to an extensive loss of sea ice that surprised Arctic researchers. In the Arctic, sea ice — frozen seawater that floats over the ocean in the polar regions — reaches its largest coverage in March and what is thought to be its thickest maximum in April, researchers told Live Science. But as sea ice was building up this year, it hit a major setback. Between Jan. 20 and Jan. 28, the storm developed over Greenland and traveled northeast into the Barents Sea, where massive waves reached 26 feet (8 meters) high. Like a wild bronco, those waves bucked sea ice at the edge of an icy pack 6 feet (2 m) up and down, while even larger waves swept 60 miles (100 km) toward the center of the pack. Although weather models accurately predicted the evolution of the storm, sea ice models did not predict just how much the storm would affect ice thickness."
"Tempted to joke about global warming amid a blizzard? Here's what experts say about that"
"Winter storms are pummeling the United States, snow is piling up, temperatures are dropping, traffic is snarling and there's always the threat of thunderstorms and thundersnow. Just like clockwork, the emails, tweets and Facebook posts start flowing. Maybe it's a joke, maybe it's a snarky critique, maybe it's a meme. The words change, but the format is familiar: If global warming is real, why is it so cold out? Scientists likely don't think that joke is as funny as another familiar climate change quip: Never argue about climate change—it always turns into a heated debate. But we asked experts to weigh in on the winter weather trope. Here's a few thoughts on what winter means in an era of global warming."
"Arctic rapidly turning warmer, wetter and riskier: report"
"Why it matters: The Arctic is a sentinel for the Northern Hemisphere's climate stability, and it is flashing red. The big picture: The peer-reviewed 2022 Arctic Report Card was released Tuesday at the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union, and is the work of 147 scientists from 11 countries. The new data highlights the cascading changes throughout Arctic ecosystems. For example, snow cover is melting earlier in spring, allowing for the Arctic fire season to get an earlier, more destructive start and affect new areas. There is a "blending of the seasons" in the Arctic as timing of certain events shifts. This affects residents who may face thinner lake and sea ice cover when they venture out to hunt or travel, lead author Matthew Druckenmiller of the National Snow and Ice Data Center, told Axios in an interview. "The rules for survival are changing in the Arctic," Druckenmiller said."
