Paul Douglas On Weather
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Severe Threat Tuesday & Wednesday

According to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, there is a Marginal Severe Risk for Tuesday for the potential of isolated strong to severe storms with large hail and gusty winds being the primary threat. There is also a larger Enhanced Risk area across the region on Wednesday, which means there is a more widespread risk of strong to severe storms with wind and hail being the main threat once again.

Simulated Radar From AM Tuesday to PM Wednesday

Here is the simulated radar from AM Tuesday to midday Wednesday, which shows spotty showers and storms developing late in the Tuesday, some of which could be a little on the strong side. However, a more widespread rain event looks to unfold during the day Wednesday with areas of heavy rainfall and the potential of strong to severe storms in a few spots.

Rainfall Potential Through 7AM Thursday

According to NOAA's NDFD data, there is a potential of heavy rainfall across the southern half of the state with some 1" to 2" tallies or more. Some of the heaviest rains look to fall south of the Twin Cities and into the southeastern part of the state.

"U.S. climate summary for June 2021: hottest June on record"

"TheJune contiguous U.S. temperaturewas 72.6°F, 4.2°F above the 20th-century average, ranking warmest in the 127-year record and surpassing the previous record for June set in 2016 by 0.9°F. The year-to-date average temperature for the contiguous U.S. was 49.3°F, 1.7°F above the 20th-century average, ranking in the warmest third of the January-June record. TheJune precipitation totalfor the contiguous U.S. was 2.93 inches, exactly average. Averaged over the first six months of the year, the precipitation total for January-June was 14.64 inches, 0.67 inch below average, ranking in the driest third of the record."

See more from NOAA HERE:

"(8) Billion-Dollar Weather & Climate Disasters So Far in 2021"

"In 2021 (as of July 9), there have been 8 weather/climate disaster events with losses exceeding $1 billion each to affect the United States. These events included 1 drought event, 2 flooding events, 4 severe storm events, and 1 winter storm event. Overall, these events resulted in the deaths of 331 people and had significant economic effects on the areas impacted. The 1980–2020 annual average is 7.1 events (CPI-adjusted); the annual average for the most recent 5 years (2016–2020) is 16.2 events (CPI-adjusted)."

See more from NOAA HERE:

Minnesota Drought Update

According to the US Drought Monitor, nearly 40% of the state is now considered to be in a severe drought, which has increased from 11% last week. Also, nearly 93% of the state is included in a moderate drought (including the Twin Cities), which has increased from 82% last week. Last year at this time, only 5% of the state was in a severe drought and 25% was in a moderate drought.

Precipitation Departure From Average (Since Jan. 1st)

Take a look at the precipitation deficits around the region and since the beginning of the year, many locations are running several inches below average, including the Twin Cities. Many locations are dealing with the top 20 driest starts to any year on record.

Tuesday Weather Outlook

The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Tuesday shows dry, mild and mostly sunny conditions in place during the first half of the day. However, a few showers and storms could develop in the afternoon hours, some of which could be a little on the strong side.

Minneapolis Meteograms

The meteograms for Minneapolis on Tuesday shows temps warming from the mid 60s in the morning to the upper 80s in the afternoon. Winds will be out of the SSW around 10-15mph through the day. There is also a chance of isolated showers and storms late into the afternoon/evening.

Regional Weather Outlook for Tuesday

The weather outlook across the region on Tuesday shows fairly decent weather place for many locations during the first half of the day. High temps will warm into the mid/upper 80s across the region, which will be nearly +5F above average for mid July

Extended Weather Outlook for Minneapolis

The extended weather outlook for Minneapolis shows temps warming to above average levels on Tuesday with near average temps through the rest of the week. The extended forecasts suggest that temps could warm to well above average levels again by the weekend and into next week. The best chance of showers and storms will be in place through midweek before we dry out for extended period.

Weather Outlook Through Friday

Here's the extended weather outlook from AM Tuesday to Friday. Weather conditions will become more unsettled around midweek with scattered showers and storms moving through. Some of the storms could be strong to severe with locally heavy rainfall.

Regional Rainfall Potential Through 7PM Wednesday

Here's the rainfall potential through 7PM Wednesday across the Midwest, which shows areas of heavier rainfall across parts of the region, including the Twin Cities.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows warmer than average temps continuing across much of the western US and across the northern tier of the nation. Meanwhile, areas in the Southern and Southeastern US will be below average.

Wednesday Soaking, Then Roasting Again
By Paul Douglas

Even though we've lost 17 minutes of daylight since the Summer Solstice on June 21, most years we don't see our hottest temperatures until this week or next. There is a 3-week lag, due to lakes, rivers and oceans taking longer to warm than land surfaces.

Confidence levels in the forecast rise when weather models agree, and that seems to be the case with another surge of heat arriving next week. NOAA's GFS model predicts 10 days in a row above 90F with a few triple-digit days. I'm skeptical, but the way this summer is going out west I would not rule anything out.

A thunderstorm may flareup later today with widespread showers and heavy thunderstorms likely Wednesday, the wettest day in sight. ECMWF (European model) is advertising a stripe of 1-3 inches of rain; even heavier amounts are possible in and near the MSP metro. Tomorrow may be the drenching we've been hoping for, and so richly deserve.

Yes, we are getting our money's worth of sunshine, heat & humidity this summer. Sadly, drought too.

Extended Forecast

TUESDAY: Some sun, late T-storm. Winds: SW 7-12. High: 85.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Chance of showers & storms. Winds: SW 5-10. Low: 68.

WEDNESDAY: Few severe storms. Locally heavy rain. Winds: S 8-13. High: 79.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny, drying out. Winds: N 5-10. Wake-up: 63. High: 80.

FRIDAY: Hazy blue sky, warming up. Winds: S 5-10. Wake-up: 61. High: 84.

SATURDAY:Good lake day. Warm sunshine. Winds: S 7-12. Wake-up: 66. High: 87.

SUNDAY:Sunny, sticky and hot. Winds: SE 10-15. Wake-up: 68 High: 89.

MONDAY: Hot high pressure. Bright sunshine. Winds: E 8-13. Wake-up: 70 High: 90.

This Day in Weather History

July 13th

1933: An intense heat wave affects Grand Marais with a high of 90, extremely rare for that location. Most of Minnesota would exceed 100 degrees on this date.

1890: A tornado hits Lake Gervais north of St. Paul. People rush from St. Paul to help victims and look for souvenirs. One reporter notes that 'nearly everyone who returned from the disaster last evening came laden with momentoes (sic) denoting the cyclone's fury.'

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

July 13th

Average High: 84F(Record: 105F set in 1936)

Average Low: 65F (Record: 50Fset in 1990

Record Rainfall: 2.79" set in 2013

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

July 13th

Sunrise: 5:39am

Sunset: 8:57pm

Hours of Daylight: ~15hours & 19minutes

Daylight LOSTsinceyesterday: ~ 1 minute & 31 seconds

Daylight LOSTsince SummerSolstice (June 20th): ~18 Minutes

Moon Phase for July 13th at Midnight

3.1 Before First Quarter Moon

See more from HERE:

What's in the Night Sky?

Venus and Mars orbitthe sun on either side of Earth. But, in the July evening sky,Venus outshines Mars by about 200 times. So you might lookwest after sunset now … and overlook Mars at first. Watch for Mars. It's inconjunctionwith Venus this month.The exact time of the conjunction is July 13, 2021, at about7 UTC. At that time, Venus will pass 1/2 degree north of Mars on our sky's dome, or about one moon-diameter. Do you have binoculars? Any ordinary binoculars will show Venus and Mars in the same field of view at their closest. Depending on where you live worldwide, Venus and Mars will be closest together in the evening sky on July 12 or July 13.

See more from Earth Sky HERE:

National High Temps Tuesday

The weather outlook on Tuesday shows cooler temps across parts of the Central US, where temps will be nearly -5F to -10F below average. Meanwhile folks in the Western US will be running above average once again with dangerous and record heat possible.

National Weather Outlook

The national weather outlook through midweek shows more showers and storms east of the Mississippi River Valley with another round of showers and storms moving into the Midwest. There will also be monsoon storms in the Desert Southwest through midweek.

Extended Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center areas of heavy rainfall will be possible across parts of the Central US. Areas of heavy rain will still be possible across parts of the Midwest and into the Ohio Valley. There will also be areas of heavy rain in the Desert Southwest where monsoon storms will develop.

Climate Stories

"Reservoirs are drying up as consequences of the Western drought worsen"

"Reservoir levels are dropping throughout the West, as the drought tightens its grip on the region and intense summer heat further stresses both water supply and the surrounding landscape. Many reservoirs are at or approaching historic low levels due to lackluster rainy seasons combined with increasing temperatures due to climate change. The drought crisis is perhaps most apparent in the Colorado River basin, which saw one of its driest years on record, following two decades of less-than-adequate flows. The nation's largest reservoir, Lake Mead near Las Vegas, is at its lowest level since the lake filled after the construction of the Hoover dam in the 1930s; it currently sits at 1,069 feet above sea level, or 35 percent of its total capacity. It supplies water to Arizona, Nevada, California and Mexico. Further upstream, Lake Powell, which feeds Lake Mead, is at only 34 percent of its total capacity. By next spring, Lake Powellis projectedto hit its lowest level since it was filled in 1964, possibly jeopardizing its ability to generate power."

See more from The Washington Post HERE:

"After Hottest June Ever, U.S. Braces for New Heatwave in West"

"Western states are bracing for more scorching weather this weekend after the hottest month of June on record in the United States killed scores of people, strained electric grids and depleted reservoirs. The National Weather Service has issued an excessive heat warning for much of the West through Monday evening, predicting "dangerously hot conditions" including temperatures up to 130 degrees Fahrenheit (54 degrees Celsius) in Death Valley, California. Temperatures are expected to soar above 100 degrees F (40 degrees C) in multiple states. "Long standing record high temperature values are likely to be rivaled or broken," the weather service said, warning of the elevated risk of heat-related illnesses. The extended heatwave, which coincides with a record-setting drought, has already killed at least 116 people in Oregon alone, the state medical examiner said. The extremes in the Pacific Northwest would have been "virtually impossible" without human-caused climate change, according to a study by World Weather Attribution, a collaboration of climate scientists around the world."

See more from US News HERE:

"Narwhal Tusks Point to Changing Arctic Conditions"

"Narwhal tusks record decades of environmental information and clearly show a changing Arctic, researchers reportedinCurrent Biology.Every year the spiraling tusks grow another layer, incorporating variants of carbon and nitrogen called isotopes and some of the mercury a narwhal consumes. The researchers bought 10 tusks from Inuit subsistence hunters in northwestern Greenland and found that the objects contained nearly 50 years' worth of information. Having access to such a long stretch of data "was just an amazing step forward in our understanding of the factors that affect things like diet and mercury [levels]," says lead author and McGill University marine biologist Jean-Pierre Desforges. The researchers sliced open the whale tusks (which are actually teeth, made of dentine), ground parts of them into powder and analyzed the samples' isotope content. The results indicate where and what a narwhal might have eaten, as well as its exposure to mercury—a potent toxin whose accumulation affects animals' immune and reproductive systems."

See more from Scientific American HERE:

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