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Bitter Cold Start Saturday Morning

It was another bitter cold morning across the state. While temperatures only were in the single digits below zero in the Twin Cities, three airport sites in northern Minnesota reached the -40s, including -44F in Bigfork. Meanwhile, not listed above, it appears at least one site up in northern Minnesota east of Ely hit -50F this morning, which would be a new statewide record for the day according to NWS Duluth.


Wind Chill Warning With Record Cold For Valentine's Day?

If you're heading out early Sunday morning, you might want three or four parkas on! The temperature is expected to drop to -17F in the Twin Cities - the coldest morning since January 31, 2019 - with at least -30s in northern Minnesota (though I'm sure there will be colder readings than just the cities that are shown on the map). When you factor in the wind, it could feel like almost -60F in some areas of northern Minnesota. Wind Chill Warnings are in place.

What lovely shades of purple and pink on the map for Valentine's Day... oh, wait, it's not all that lovely. We'll stay subzero across the state Sunday, with highs that are 30-40F degrees below average.

In the Twin Cities, temperatures will start off in the mid-10s below zero, only climbing to around a high of -6F, which would break the record cold high for the day of -5F in 1920. The coldest wind chills could actually come a couple of hours after sunrise, bottoming out near -40F but feeling like the -20s in the afternoon. Not a day to spend outside if at all possible!

Here are the coldest highs on record for February 14th in the Twin Cities. Even if we somehow make it above -5F, we should stay subzero, making it a top three coldest Valentine's Day on record.


Coldest Morning Of The Stretch Monday?

Sunday morning looks to be even colder here in the Twin Cities, with lows bottoming out around -20F. It'll be another morning where the wind chill will play a major factor - at least in the -30s and -40s statewide.

At least it'll be warmer Monday? Highs climb into the single digits - both above and below zero - on Monday. The coldest weather will actually be in western and southern Minnesota.


Gradually Warming This Week!!!

I have some fantastic news - the end of this Arctic outbreak is in sight! It looks like we'll finally climb back above +10F for a high as we head for Wednesday - the first time since February 5th. 20s look possible as we head toward Friday, and some of the model guidance is showing 30s for next weekend. And those 30s are positive 30s - not negative 30s!


Consecutive Days Below +10F

We continue to add up the number of consecutive days with a high colder than +10F in the Twin Cities. Saturday will have made it eight days in a row, and the current forecast would keep us at these cold levels through Tuesday. That would be eleven days in a row, which would be the eighth longest stretch on record. The most was 15 days in a row set four different times, most recently between December 1973 and January 1974.


Consecutive Subzero Lows

We are also tracking the number of consecutive days with a subzero low. Saturday morning marked the eighth day in a row. With these cold lows expected to continue through Thursday morning based on my forecast, that would be thirteen nights in a row, tied for the 17th longest stretch on record.


Coldest Valentine's On Record?
By D.J. Kayser, filling in for Paul Douglas

I've got some good news: the end of this Arctic stretch is in sight. The bad news? We still have a few days to go.

You might want to cuddle close to your loved one on this Valentine's Day as we'll start off in the mid-teens below zero with highs staying subzero. The record cold high for February 14th in the Twin Cities is -5F in 1920, and it looks like we'll give that a run for its money this afternoon.

However, as we head through the work week, we will see some gradual warming. Highs should climb back into the teens above zero for Wednesday and then into the 20s Friday. Some of the guidance shows the potential for 30s next weekend! Even with the warm up, the storm track will remain to our south for the time being.

Meanwhile, we aren't the only ones dealing with the cold. Besides some heavy snow in the southern U.S. the next couple of days, Houston won't make it above freezing Monday and Oklahoma City could see one of their coldest mornings on record Tuesday. I really hope you didn't have a trip planned for Galveston this week!


D.J.'s Extended Twin Cities Forecast

SUNDAY: Mainly sunny. Wind chills: -25F to -40F. Wake up -17. High -6. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind NW 10 mph.

MONDAY: Mainly sunny. Still unable to feel my face. Wake up -21. High -2. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind NW 3-8 mph.

TUESDAY: More clouds than sun... but warmer! Wake up -16. High 7. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SE 3-8 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. First time above 10F since Feb. 5. Wake up -6. High 13. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind S 5-10 mph.

THURSDAY: A few passing clouds. Wake up -1. High 17. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind SSW 5-10 mph.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Continuing our warm up. Wake up 1. High 22. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind SSW 5-10 mph.

SATURDAY: Break out the shorts? Mainly sunny. Wake up 10. High 29. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SW 5-10 mph.


This Day in Weather History
February 14th

1923: A 'Black Dust Blizzard' ends after two days. Dirt blown into the state from North Dakota created drifts.


Average Temperatures & Precipitation for Minneapolis
February 14th

Average High: 29F (Record: 50F set in 1882)
Average Low: 11F (Record: -25F set in 1875)
Average Precipitation: 0.02" (Record: 0.43" set in 1950)
Average Snowfall: 0.2" (Record: 6.4" in 1950)
Record Snow Depth: 21" in 1979


Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
February 14th

Sunrise: 7:14 AM
Sunset: 5:40 PM

*Length Of Day: 10 hours, 25 minutes and 18 seconds
*Daylight GAINED Since Yesterday: ~2 minutes and 54 seconds

*When Do We Climb To 10.5 Hours Of Daylight? February 16th (10 hours, 31 minutes, and 11 seconds)
*When Is The Sunrise At/Before 7:00 AM?: February 23rd (7:00 AM)
*When Is The Sunset At/After 6:00 PM? March 1st (6:01 PM)


National Weather Forecast

A messy forecast is expected for a good portion of the country on Sunday. Snow will stretch from the Four Corners to the southern and central Plains, up through the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, and Northeast. Icing will be expected from southern Texas up through the New York City area. Strong storms will be possible across portions of Florida, including for the Daytona 500. Another system will bring rain and snow impacts to the Pacific Northwest down to the Bay Area.

As typical in winter, several feet of snow will be possible in some of the western mountains. However, the main story will be heavy snow across portions of the southern Plains, with up to a foot possible across areas of Oklahoma. Heavy icing will also be possible from southern Texas through eastern Kentucky.

Here's a look at some of the expected snow and ice totals in the Southern Plains. It's not every day that you see the potential for up to a foot of snow for Oklahoma City, nor accumulating snow and ice for Houston!

Of course, with the wintry weather in place, cold temperatures will go along with it. Houston won't make it above freezing on Monday, and Oklahoma City could see a top ten coldest low on record Tuesday morning. This could be a major disaster across portions of the region due to burst pipes and nearly impossible travel.


NASA Is Dropping a New Rover on Mars. Here's What Could Go Wrong

More from Gizmodo: "Failure could take on many forms next week when NASA's next-gen rover, Perseverance, reaches the surface of the Red Planet. Here's what needs to go right—and how things could quickly go sideways—when Perseverance tries to make its much-anticipated landing. For NASA, the entry, descent, and landing (EDL) of Perseverance on Thursday, February 18 presents numerous potential points of failure. NASA has said that "hundreds of things have to go just right" for the rover to survive the seven minutes of terror. We can't take a safe landing for granted: As NASA points out, only "about 40 percent of the missions ever sent to Mars—by any space agency—have been successful." Which, yikes."

'A big promise': Biden's climate spending pledge faces early test

More from Politico: "President Joe Biden has promised 40 percent of the benefits from the $2 trillion he's aiming to spend on climate change will go to disadvantaged communities that have suffered the most from pollution. But figuring out how to spend that potential mountain of cash may vex the places vying for it and the lawmakers tasked with doling it out. People at the highest levels of Biden's administration are huddling to try to meet the 120-day deadline Biden set out in his sprawling executive order on climate change to issue recommendations for spending that money. And figuring out the details while avoiding the blunders that could undermine confidence in the program will be crucial for generating political momentum for his climate agenda — something Biden's former boss President Barack Obama struggled to do with his 2009 stimulus package."

Digging in: a million trees planted as villages and schools join climate battle

More from The Guardian: "The UK may be in the grip of a winter lockdown but in one village on the edge of the Yorkshire Dales the local climate-change group has been busy. Plans are afoot to plant hundreds of trees on land surrounding Newton-le-Willows, in lower Wensleydale, in an effort to tackle the climate crisis. According to scientists, planting billions of trees across the world is one of the biggest and cheapest ways of taking CO2 out of the atmosphere. Bob Sampson, a former land-use planning adviser for the Ministry of Agriculture and member of the village's climate-change group, has written to local landowners asking permission to grow trees on their land. Seven have agreed so far, and he is now recruiting villagers to sponsor, and plant, trees."


Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).

- D.J. Kayser