Paul Douglas On Weather
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"California's Snowpack Nearly 200% Above Average for Early February"

"Last month's series of winter storms dropped a lot of snow across the state's mountain ranges. But there could be dry conditions to come. State officials say California's snowpack is the highest it's been in decades for early February, the Los Angeles Times reported. The California Department of Water Resources conducted the second manual snowpack survey of 2023 yesterday at Phillips Station near Lake Tahoe. Officials found 85.5 inches of snow depth. That's 193% above average for the snow depth for the location for this time of year, according to a statement from the Department. Last month, Water Resources officials found 55.5 inches of snow depth. The impressive pileup of snow is thanks to a series of atmospheric rivers, which from late December to mid-January brought one winter storm after another to the arid state. The abundance of snow is a promising sign for easing drought, as about 30% of the state's water needs come from the snowpack, according to the Department of Water Resources. As all that snow melts, it fills nearby rivers, lakes, and reservoirs."

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Still Cold This Week, But Much Warmer This Weekend

The 850mb temperature anomaly through next weekend shows milder temperatures continuing across much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation. There will be a brief cool snap later this week, but milder temps look to return this weekend.

Extended Temperature Outlook

The NBM extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows mild weather in place over the next several days. Highs will warm into the 30s and possibly near 40F a few times through mid month. However, there will be a brief cool stint later this week with highs back to if not slightly below average.

Snow Depth

As of Sunday, February 5th, the MSP Airport still had 10" of snow on the ground. Meanwhile, there's nearly 2ft of snow on the ground in Duluth, across northern Wisconsin and the UP of Michigan. Meanwhile, nearly 1.5ft of snow is on the ground in International Falls. With several days of warmer weather on the horizon, our snow pack will take a bit of a hit, so get out there and enjoy while it's still around.

Seasonal Snowfall

Taking a look at snowfall since July 1st, many locations have seen above average amounts so far this season, but folks from near Sioux Falls to the Twin Cities and towards Duluth are nearly 20" to 30" above average this month. 55.5" of snow has fallen at the MSP Airport, which is the 6th snowiest start to any season on record.

Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Tuesday

The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Tuesday, February 7th shows a high temp approaching the mid 30s, which will be nearly +5F to +10F above average for this time of the year. Skies will be sunnier with breezy WNW winds during the first part of the day.

Weather Outlook on Tuesday

Temps across the region on Tuesday will warm into the 20s and 30s, which will be nearly +5F to +10F above average for this time of the year. We will also see a mix of clouds and sun through the day.

Meteograms For Minneapolis

The weather outlook for the Twin Cities through the day Tuesday shows mild temperatures in place with readings in the mid 20s in the morning and low/mid 30s in the afternoon. Skies will generally be sunny with gusty WNW winds through the first part of the day.

Hourly Feels Like Temps

Feels like temps on Tuesday won't be too chilly with readings in the 10s and 20s through the day.

Weather Outlook

The weather outlook through the weekend shows another storm system developing in the Southern US midweek with areas of rain and thunder across the Central US. This system will drift north mid/late week with areas of snow for parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes. The Twin Cities will largely get missed, but there could be a little snow on Thursday as the storm passes to our southeast.

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis through the first full week of February keeps our temps rather mild for this time of the year. There's a chance that we could be close to 40F on Wednesday with a brief cool down on Friday.

Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended weather outlook for the Twin Cities shows much warmer weather in place over the next several days. There could be a little light snow on Thursday as a storm system passes to our southeast of us. Temperatures will cool into the 20s on Friday, but will warm up into the 30s again this weekend.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows cooler than average temperatures across much of the Western US, but warmer than average temperatures will settle in across the eastern and especially the northeastern part of the nation.

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows more active weather in place across the nation and especially across the Central US.

Weather Maps Look Like Early March
By Paul Douglas

I may regret saying this out loud but I suspect the worst of winter is behind us now. Will we see more cold fronts and snowstorms? Yes. Take it to the bank. But MOST of the snow and MOST of the subzero cold is now in our rearview mirror.

The winter heating season is running slightly milder than average. Based on NWS heating degree days we've saved 3% on a typical winter heating bill, to date. Subzero fun? I count 11 nights below zero so far at MSP. The 30-year average for an entire winter is 20. We've already had a winter's worth of snow (55" so far) but I'll be amazed if we pick up more than 20-25" of additional snow into April. Then again I'm continually amazed.

The pattern looks more like early March than early February. I see daytime highs in the 30s with a few low 40s looking out the next 2 weeks. This is more of a Pacific flow with fewer arctic incursions. Rain may streak into town next Tuesday, with a better chance of slushy snow late next week. Winter? Yep. Polar? Not even close. Good times huh?

Extended Forecast

TUESDAY: Partly sunny, breezy. Winds: NW 15-25. High: 36.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear and quiet. Winds: SSW 5. Low: 24.

WEDNESDAY: Blue sky, hints of March. Winds: S 8-13. High: 41.

THURSDAY: Storm stays south. Few PM flakes? Winds: NW 8-13. Wake-up: 28. High: 37.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy and brisk. Winds: NW 15-25. Wake-up: 21. High: 25.

SATURDAY: Plenty of sunshine. Winds: S 10-15. Wake-up: 10. High: 31.

SUNDAY: Mix of clouds and sun, relatively mild. Winds: S 5-10. Wake-up: 23. High: 40.

MONDAY: Partly sunny and breezy. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 27. High: 35.

This Day in Weather History

February 7th

1857: A snowstorm dumps around 9 inches of snow at Fort Snelling.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

February 7th

Average High: 26F (Record: 53F set in 1987)

Average Low: 10F (Record: -29F set in 1875)

Record Rainfall: 0.94" set in 1928

Record Snowfall: 5.9" set in 2019

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

February 7th

Sunrise: 7:24am

Sunset: 5:29pm

Hours of Daylight: ~10 hours & 4 minutes

Daylight GAINED since yesterday: +2 Minutes & 44 Seconds

Daylight GAINED since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 1 hour & 17 minutes

Moon Phase for February 7th at Midnight

2.5 Days After Full Moon

"12:29 p.m. CST - Usually, the heaviest snows fall in this month. Hunting becomes very difficult, and hence to some tribes this was the Full Hunger Moon."

National High Temps on Tuesday

Temperatures on Tuesday will be milder across the Midwest and eastern half of the nation, where readings will be nearly +10F above average. Temps in the Rockies will be below average

National Weather Outlook Tuesday

The weather outlook for Tuesday shows a developing area of low pressure in the Southern US, where showers and storms will be possible. Meanwhile, a wintry mix will be possible in the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. There will be another rain/snow mix in the Northwest.

National Weather Outlook

A fast moving clipper system will push through the Great Lakes region with a wintry mix. An area of low pressure will develop in the Southern US with showers and storms and locally heavy rainfall. Another system will develop in the Northwest a some mountain snow.

Extended Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, the extended precipitation outlook shows heavier amounts in the Southern US. There will also be heavier pockets of precipitation in the Pacific Northwest.

Snowfall Potential

According to the ECMWF (European model), heavy snow will be found across much of the high elevations in the Western US. There will also be decent snowfall potential in the across parts of the Midwest and eastern Canada.

Climate Stories

Where does Earth end and space begin? The Karman line is only one answer

"When a spacecraft blasts off the surface of Earth, it eventually exits our planet's airspace and enters outer space. Where, precisely, that boundary lies is up for some debate. Many experts cite what's called the Kármán line as that edge of space, which establishes the boundary as the altitude above which conventional aircraft can't fly. That line is often placed at approximately 62 miles above our planet's surface. That figure has many practical uses, but its scientific accuracy has been questioned. Assigning a precise value to the edge of space is anything but straightforward. "In science, the boundaries we draw don't exist in nature exactly," says Jonathan McDowell, an astrophysicist at the Center for Astrophysics | Harvard & Smithsonian. "Where a boundary exists is where some quantity changes very rapidly over a short distance… And that is true at this edge of the atmosphere. But what you choose to call space and what you choose to call Earth—that's a human decision that's not forced on us by physics."

See more from Popular Science HERE:

"Western wildfires destroyed 246% more homes and buildings over the past decade – fire scientists explain what's changing"

"It can be tempting to think that the recent wildfire disasters in communities across the West were unlucky, one-off events, but evidence is accumulating that points to a trend. In a new study, we found a 246% increase in the number of homes and structures destroyed by wildfires in the contiguous Western U.S. between the past two decades, 1999-2009 and 2010-2020. This trend is strongly influenced by major fires in 2017, 2018 and 2020, including destructive fires in Paradise and Santa Rosa, California, and in Colorado, Oregon and Washington. In fact, in nearly every Western state, more homes and buildings were destroyed by wildfire over the past decade than the decade before, revealing increasing vulnerability to wildfire disasters. What explains the increasing home and structure loss?"

See more from The Conversation Alert HERE:

"More Than 400,000 Texans Without Power Amid Dangerous Winter Storm"

"Central Texas has been frozen since earlier this week after an Arctic front rolled into the Southern U.S. Parts of central, west, and north Texas and nearby states Arkansas and Tennessee were under ice storm warnings, per the National Weather Service Prediction Center. The freezing temperatures and sleet should end by this weekend. "The prolonged and damaging ice storm that has impacted a large region from Texas to Tennessee is forecast to finally come to an end today as a final surge of moisture slides eastward," the NWS said. "Highs will return into the 40s and 50s by Friday, likely eliminating any icy concerns." "FINALLY beginning to see some clearing on radar. Road conditions will slowly improve as we climb into the mid 30s today. Slick spots will persist overnight but widespread improvement is expected tomorrow. Allow for extra travel time today. It's still slushy!" the Fort Worth National Weather Service account tweeted Thursday."

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