Paul Douglas On Weather
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Soggy Tuesday Ahead

The weather on Tuesday will be quite soggy across the region with rain moving in around midday and continuing through much of the afternoon/evening. Temperatures farther north and west will be cold enough for snowfall, which could add up to a few inches of snow by AM Wednesday. A light coating of snow will be possible in the Twin Cities by early AM Wednesday.

Waterlogged Storm

This will be a waterlogged storm with total liquid amounts approaching 1" or more across parts of Central MN.

Snowfall Potential

Winter weather headlines have been posted northwest of the Twin Cities, where some 2" to 6" and 60mph winds will be possible. Blizzard conditions may be possible in some areas across far western MN and into the Red River Valley.

Warmer Temps Continue. Brief Cooldown Late Week.

Mild February temperatures look to continue across much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation through at least midweek. A bigger storm system will develop in the Central US midweek with cooler air funneling in later this week. The good news is that this cooler air won't be too terribly cold and it certainly won't be as cold as it was a couple of weeks ago.

Extended Temperature Outlook

The NBM extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis keeps milder weather in place over the next several days with highs warming into the 30s to near 40F. It looks like warmer than average weather sticks around through midweek before a brief cool stint moves in later this week with highs in the 10s and 20s. Again, it won't be too cold and it won't last long. Highs be next weekend look to warm into the 30s once again.

Snow Depth

As of Sunday, February 12th, the MSP Airport still had 7" of snow on the ground. Meanwhile, there's nearly 2ft of snow on the ground in Duluth, across northern Wisconsin and the UP of Michigan. With several days of warmer weather on the horizon, our snow pack will take a bit of a hit, so get out there and enjoy while it's still around.

25th Longest Stretch of 6" Snow Depth a MSP

Believe it or not, the MSP Airport is currently sitting at its 25th longest consecutive stretch of at least 6" of snow on the ground. There has been at least 6" of snow on the ground since December 20th with the maximum snow depth at 16" on January 5th & 6th. With warmer weather continuing through the middle part of next week, the snow pack will continue to dwindle. By the way, this is the longest stretch of at least 6" of snow since 2014 (1/14 to 3/13), that was a 59 day day stretch.

Seasonal Snowfall

Taking a look at snowfall since July 1st, many locations have seen above average amounts so far this season, but folks from near Sioux Falls to the Twin Cities and towards Duluth are nearly 15" to 25" above average this month. 55.6" of snow has fallen at the MSP Airport, which is the 9th snowiest start to any season on record.

Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Tuesday

The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Tuesday, February 14th shows a high temp approaching 40F, which will be nearly +10F to +15F above average for this time of the year. It will also be a very soggy day with areas of rain moving in, especially around midday and into the afternoon & evening.

Weather Outlook on Tuesday

Temps across the region on Tuesday will warm into the 30s and possibly near 40F, which will be nearly +10F to +20F above average for this time of the year. Areas of rain and snow will develop and continue into early Wednesday.

Meteograms For Minneapolis

The weather outlook for the Twin Cities through the day Sunday shows mild temperatures in place with readings in the mid 30s in the morning with highs approaching 40F in the afternoon. Skies will be cloudy with areas of rain through much of the day. Winds will be breezy with some 20mph to near 30mph gusts possible.

Hourly Feels Like Temps

Feels like temps on Tuesday won't be too chilly with readings in the 20s and 30s through the day.

Weather Outlook

The week ahead will be quite active as two different storm systems develop in the Central US. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible in the Central & Southern US with areas of heavy snowfall across parts of the Midwest & Great Lakes.

Severe Threat Next Wednesday & Thursday

Strong to severe thunderstorms possible both Wednesday and Thursday. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is highlighting areas in the Central & Southern US that could see large hail, damaging winds and even tornadoes.

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows well above average temps continuing through midweek next week. Tuesday will be a very warm day with a high approaching 40F, which will be nearly 10F to 15F above average. It'll be colder later this week with temperatures dipping back down into the 10s and 20s, which will be nearly -5F to -10F below average.

Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended weather outlook for the Twin Cities into next week looks pretty mild through Wednesday with highs in the 30s and 40s. There will be 2 different storm system that will impact the region midweek with areas of rain and possibly some accumulating snow. Temps will then take a high late week as highs fall into the 10s and 20s. The colder air won't last long as temps look to warm into the 30s and 40s again this weekend.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows cooler than average temperatures lingering across the Western US and into the Midwest. Meanwhile, the southeastern part of the nation will be warmer than average.

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows more active weather in place across much of the nation.

Unusual Warming Properties of Pine Trees
By Paul Douglas

We've had quite a run of Marchlike warmth in recent days. Saturday Baudette, Hibbing and International Falls all experienced a record high of 47F, nearly 10F warmer than St. Cloud and the Twin Cities.

The Duluth office of the National Weather Service has a good explainer. It's all about "albedo". On a sunny day darker surfaces (like asphalt driveways and pine trees) absorb more of the sun's warming radiation. Proximity to (darker-shaded) pine trees can keep nearby temperatures significant warmer than snow-covered fields. Who knew?

Treat your valentine to an umbrella today with periods of rain, as a storm tracks from the Texas Panhandle into the MSP metro tonight. A few inches of slush may fall on the cold side of the storm (Brainerd and Bemidji) with a slushy coating in the Twin Cities Wednesday.

A Thursday storm tracks south of town with another weekend thaw, before the mercury droops next week. I see a few days in single digits and teens. By then we will be long overdue for a wintry flashback.

Extended Forecast

TUESDAY: Rain likely. Winds: SE 10-20. High: 40.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Wet & windy. Rain & snow mix. Winds: WNW 15-25. Low: 27.

WEDNESDAY: Flurries taper, metro slush? Winds: NW 15-25. High: 33.

THURSDAY: Snow southeast MN. Windy & brisk. Winds: N 10-20. Wake-up: 11. High: 20.

FRIDAY: Sunny and chilly. Winds: S 8-13. Wake-up: 3. High: 24.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny, thawing out. Winds: SW 5-10. Wake-up: 19. High: 36.

SUNDAY: Mix of clouds and sunshine. Winds: W 10-20. Wake-up: 22. High: 35.

MONDAY: Snow arrives, light accumulation? Winds: NE 10-20. Wake-up: 27. High: 31.

This Day in Weather History

February 14th

1923: A 'Black Dust Blizzard' ends after two days. Dirt blown into the state from North Dakota created drifts.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

February 14th

Average High: 28F (Record: 50F set in 1882)

Average Low: 12F (Record: -25F set in 1875)

Record Rainfall: 0.43" set in 1950

Record Snowfall: 6.4" set in 1950

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

February 14th

Sunrise: 7:14am

Sunset: 5:39pm

Hours of Daylight: ~10 hours & 24 minutes

Daylight GAINED since yesterday: +2 Minutes & 54 Seconds

Daylight GAINED since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 1 hour & 37 minutes

Moon Phase for February 14th at Midnight

1.6 Days After Last Quarter Moon

National High Temps on Tuesday

Temperatures on Tuesday will be very mild across the eastern half of the nation, where temps could be nearly +10F to +20F above average. Meanwhile, the western half of the nation will be cooler than average with temps running -5F to -15F below average.

National Weather Outlook Tuesday

The weather outlook for Tuesday will be quite active in the Central US with scattered showers and storms in the Southern US with areas of rain and snow farther north.

National Weather Outlook

The weather outlook through midweek looks very active in the Central US with scattered showers and storms in the Southern US, some of which could be strong to severe. Meanwhile areas of heavy snow and strong winds will be possible farther north, where blizzard conditions will be possible for some.

Extended Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, the extended precipitation outlook shows heavier amounts in the Southern US. There will also be heavier pockets of precipitation across parts of the Midwest.

Snowfall Potential

According to the ECMWF (European model), heavy snow will be found across much of the high elevations in the Western US. A developing storm system will also bring heavy snow to the Southwest and from the Central Plains to the Great Lakes into next week

Climate Stories

"Two years after its historic deep freeze, Texas is increasingly vulnerable to cold snaps – and there are more solutions than just building power plants"

"Texans like to think of their state as the energy capital of the world. But in mid-February 2021, the energy state ran short of energy. An intense winter weather outbreak, informally dubbed Winter Storm Uri by the Weather Channel, swept across the U.S., bringing snow, sleet, freezing rain and frigid temperatures. Texas was hit especially hard, with all 254 counties under a winter storm warning at the same time. Across the state, sustained arctic temperatures froze power plants and fuel supplies, while energy demand for home heating climbed to all-time highs. Cascading failures in the electric power and natural gas sectors left millions of people in the dark for days. At least 246 people died, possibly many more, and economic damage estimates damages reached US$130 billion."

See more from The Conversation HERE:

"The return of El Nino could make the world even hotter — endangering a critical climate threshold"

"Early forecasts suggest the El Nino climate phenomenon could return later this year, potentially paving the way for global temperatures to exceed the critical 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold for the first time. The El Nino Southern Oscillation system is composed of El Nino and La Nina — two opposite states of fluctuation in the Earth's climate system, which can have significant consequences on weather, wildfires, ecosystems and economies across the world. Professor Adam Scaife, head of long-range prediction at the U.K. Met Office, described the El Nino Southern Oscillation as "the biggest single natural variation in climate that we know about on the timescale of a few years." El Nino — or "the little boy" in Spanish — is widely recognized as the warming of the sea surface temperature, which occurs every few years. An El Nino event is declared when sea temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific rise 0.5 degrees Celsius above the long-term average."

See more from the CNBC HERE:

"Atmospheric rivers are hitting the Arctic more often, and increasingly melting its sea ice"

"Atmospheric rivers, those long, powerful streams of moisture in the sky, are becoming more frequent in the Arctic, and they're helping to drive dramatic shrinking of the Arctic's sea ice cover. While less ice might have some benefits – it would allow more shipping in winter and access to minerals – sea ice loss also contributes to global warming and to extreme storms that cause economic damage well beyond the Arctic. I'm an atmospheric scientist. In a new study of the Barents-Kara Seas and the neighboring central Arctic, published Feb. 6, 2023, in Nature Climate Change, my colleagues and I found that these storms reached this region more often and were responsible for over a third of the region's early winter sea ice decline since 1979."

See more from Lake County News HERE:

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