See
more of the story
After correctly predicting the Twins' triumph over Toronto in two games, it's time to look into the future for the outcome of their American League Division Series against Houston.
The Twins are heading to Minute Maid Park facing a formidable challenge: Beat an Astros team that is historically excellent in the postseason.
While defeating Toronto in the wild-card series, the Twins served notice that their pitching staff is built for October. But the Astros lineup is more dangerous than Toronto's, with Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker. Michael Brantley, a former Twins nemesis with Cleveland, is also on the roster. The lefthanded hitting Alvarez is effective against righties and lefties. Tucker, another lefthanded hitter, fares better against lefties. Matching up against them will be tricky.
What makes the challenge even tougher is that, like the Twins' Pablo López and Sonny Gray, Houston has a 1-2 punch of righthander Justin Verlander and lefthander Framber Valdez. Verlander, traded back to the Astros before the deadline, is 40 but can still dominate. He's 22-10 with a 2.76 career ERA against the Twins. He threw 14 scoreless innings at them in two starts last season.
The Twins offense improved as the regular season went along, but they scored only five runs in two games — at home — against Toronto. Houston manager Dusty Baker knows what he's doing by leading with Verlander. Valdez, who can stifle lefthanded and righthanded hitters, is an ace-level No. 2 pitcher.
The Twins won four of six games against Houston in the regular season but never faced Valdez (or Verlander, who was with the Mets at the time). The expected Game 2 matchup between Valdez and López will be epic.
Both the Twins and the Astros have good bullpens with live arms. Baker doesn't send pinch hitters to the plate much, as only four teams have fewer pinch-hit plate appearances this season. The Twins were third in pinch-hit plate appearances during the regular season, as Rocco Baldelli changes his personnel during games faster than Dean Evason changes lines.
In the end, the Twins are up against a team that has played in six consecutive American League Championship Series — and four World Series during that period. The Astros are run by one of baseball's great managers. There are four Twins who have won a World Series either with or in Houston. Carlos Correa (2017), Dallas Keuchel (2017) and Christian Vázquez (2022) won with the Astros; Michael A. Taylor was with Washington when the Nationals defeated Houston in 2019. But the Astros' postseason pedigree is purer, and they have home-field advantage.
The Twins have a chance if they produce more than the five runs they scored in two wild-card series games, and if Houston plays to its baffling standards at home (39-42 during the regular season).
Expect these games to be close. But also expect Houston to prevail in five games and head to baseball's final four.
