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Extreme Fire Danger Today
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MUCH OF MINNESOTA DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY
Steady northwest winds with gusts near 30 mph are expected again today with humidities dropping to between 15 and 25 percent. Some humidities in the lower teens are possible. Critical fire weather conditions are expected and any fires that form will have the ability to spread quickly. The National Weather Service in Twin Cities/Chanhassen has issued a Red Flag Warning, which is in effect from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening. The Fire Weather Watch is no longer in effect.
AFFECTED AREA...All of central and south central Minnesota.
WIND...Northwest 20 to 25 mph with gusts near 30 mph.
HUMIDITY...15 to 25 percent. Even lower humidities are possible.
IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.
Meteograms For Minneapolis
The hourly weather forecast for Tuesday will be windy with dry and mild temps. This will create extremely high fire concerns across the region today. Note that if wildfires do start, they could quickly spread and get out of control.
Ice Outs
According to the MN DNR, Lake Minnetonka is officially ICE OUT!! It happened on Wednesday, April 19th, which is a just about a week later than average. The earliest ice out was on March 11th, 1878, while the latest ice out was on May 5th, 2018. Ice outs will continue to creep north over the next several days and weeks. Many of the larger lakes in central and northern Minnesota have yet to go ice out, but it won't be long now...
See more from the MN DNR ice out page HERE:
Flood Outlook
According to the National Weather Service, out of 160 river gauges on the map below, 30 are currently in flood stage and still could be over the next several days. The good news is that many rivers have crested close to home with river levels dropping through the weekend and into early next week.
Flood Waters Receding in Stillwater
Here's the river forecast for the St. Croix River at Stillwater. Major flooding has ended after reaching a crest of 89.26ft earlier this week, which is the 7th highest crest on record there. We'll still be dealing with minor flooding through the weekend and most of next week, but the worst appears to be over for this spring.
See more from the river gauge HERE:
Flood Waters Receding Along The Mississippi at St. Paul
The Mississippi River at St. Paul will still be dealing with Major flooding through the weekend, but it appears the crest of 18.24ft earlier this week will be the high point of this spring season. That mark is the 11th highest on record. As we head into next week, we'll still be dealing with moderate and minor flooding, but water levels will be receding.
Snowfall So Far This Season
Snowfall amounts are quite impressive across the region with several locations running well above average. Duluth has seen nearly 140" of snow, which is the snowiest season on record! The Twin Cities has seen more than 90" of snow, which is the 3rd snowiest season on record. Interestingly, Bismarck North Dakota is only 0.5" away from being the snowiest season on record as well! Most climate sites around the Midwest are well above average for snowfall this season with a surplus of more than 50" in Duluth and Bismarck. The Twin Cities is nearly 40" above average this season as well.
Snowiest Season on Record in Duluth
As of Monday, the NWS in Duluth had seen nearly 140" of snow, which is the snowiest season on record. This beats the previous record of 135.4" set during the winter of 1995-96. Interestingly, 1996 was the last year that Lake Superior completely froze over. Note that there have only been 19 seasons on record that have recorded 100" or more in Duluth.
3rd Snowiest Season on Record in Minneapolis
It's been an impressive snow season in the Twin Cities as well with the MSP Airport picking up more than 90" of snow, which is good enough for the 3rd snowiest season on record. We need less than 5.0" into the 2nd spot and less than 9" to get into the top spot. If you're wondering, the latest measurable snow (0.1") on record at MSP was on May 24th set in 1925. The snow season isn't quite over just yet... Stay tuned.
Precipitation Outlook
Here's the total liquid precipitation potential through next Monday. Areas of rain will develop later this week and into the weekend ahead with heavier precipitation possible across the Western & Southern US.
Extended Temperature Outlook
The NBM extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis looks much warmer than it has been with highs warming into the 60s and 70s through the 2nd week of May. We may be finally turning a corner and on our way to more spring-like weather, finally!
Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Tuesday
The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Tuesday, May 2nd will still cooler than average with breezy winds, but at least we'll have sunny and dry weather.
Weather Outlook on Tuesday
Temps on Tuesday will be nearly -5F to -10F below average across the southern half of the state with readings warming into the 50s. Folks in far western MN could warm into the 60s.
Weather Outlook
A large area of low pressure around the Great Lakes region will begin to move east through midweek, which will allow the winds across the Midwest to slowly ease. Dry and sunny weather through midweek will begin turn more unsettled late week with an increase chance in showers and thunderstorms into the weekend.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
Temps will be cooler than average again on Tuesday with readings only warming into the mid/upper 50s. We'll finally climb to above average levels Wednesday and Thursday with readings back into the 60s and 70s.
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
Dry and mostly sunny skies will linger through much of midweek before rain and isolated thunderstorms chances move in late week and into the weekend ahead.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows warmer than average weather moving into parts of the Midwest from May 7th to the 13th. Meanwhile, cooler than average weather will be possible in California and the Southeastern US.
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows quieter/drier weather in place from the Midwest to the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. Meanwhile, more active weather will be possible again in the Western US.
Spring Is Finally Here. I Think
By Paul Douglas
I figure we have roughly one week before the bugs realize how nice it is here. Use this time wisely. In fact, you'll be amazed how fast we transition from "Why is it so darn cold and slushy?" to "Why do thunderstorms always come on weekends?" Everything about the atmosphere is unfair.
April is the windiest month for much Minnesota, the result of huge temperature swings, and some of that bad-hair-fun spills into today, with gusts to 30 mph. At least the sun will be out; as high in the sky as it was April 10. If you're working outside don't forget the sunscreen.
That high sun angle will coax temperatures to near 60F today, and 70F by late afternoon Thursday. Winds ease up by midweek and if you don't have a little spring in your step yet - you will soon.
A parade of warmer fronts (I have been waiting 8 months to say that in a sentence) leave skies overhead irritable and capable of a few weekend thunderstorms.
And so it begins. ECMWF hints at a few 80s next week. Too hot? Bring on the 2023 Bug Olympics!
Extended Forecast
TUESDAY: Sunny and breezy. Winds: NW 15-25. High: 59.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear and not as windy. Winds: N 5-15. Low: 37.
WEDNESDAY: Beautiful blue sky, milder. Winds: W 5-10. High 66.
THURSDAY: Lukewarm sunshine. Winds: SW 5-10. Wake-up: 45. High 71.
FRIDAY: Clouds increase, stray shower. Winds: SE 7-12. Wake-up: 47. High 70.
SATURDAY: Some sun, humid. Passing T-shower. Winds: SE 10-20. Wake-up: 51. High: 71.
SUNDAY: More numerous showers, T-storms. Winds: SE 10-15. Wake-up: 54. High: 68.
MONDAY: More sunshine, very pleasant. Winds: W 7-12. Wake-up: 51. High: 70.
This Day in Weather History
May 2nd
2013: A historic snowstorm dumps up to 18 inches of snow in southeast Minnesota and west central Wisconsin. Blooming Prairie receives 18 inches from this storm, and Eau Claire gets 9.3 inches.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
May 2nd
Average High: 64F (Record: 91F set in 1880 & 1959)
Average Low: 45F (Record: 24F set in 1875 & 1961)
Record Rainfall: 1.49" set in 1944
Record Snowfall: 2.2" set in 1954
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
May 2nd
Sunrise: 6:00am
Sunset: 8:19pm
Hours of Daylight: ~14 hours & 18 minutes
Daylight GAINED since yesterday: +2 Minutes & 45 Seconds
Daylight GAINED since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 5 hour & 32 minutes
Moon Phase for April 30th at Midnight
4.4 Days Until Full "Flower" Moon
"May 5 at 12:34 p.m. CDT - Flowers are abundant everywhere. It was also known as the Full Corn Planting Moon or the Milk Moon. or Antarctica, Oceania, Australasia, Asia, Europe, Africa, South Georgia and the South Sandwich Islands, a penumbral lunar eclipse also occurs on this night. Within an hour of either side of the moment of maximum eclipse (17:24 GMT in which nearly 97% of the moon will be inside the penumbral shadow) a subtle darkening may appear along the moon's upper limb. But unfortunately, this eclipse is not visible from North America."
National High Temps on Tuesday
Temperatures on Tuesday will be cool and windy along and east of the Mississippi River Valley as a big storm swirls around the Great Lakes Region. Meanwhile, folks in the Plains and Intermountain-West will be well above average with record warmth possible in the northern Rockies.
National Weather Outlook Tuesday
The weather outlook on Tuesday will be wet, cool and windy from the Great Lakes to the Northeast. Areas of rain and thunder will be possible across the Western Coast with areas of snow in the high elevations.
National Weather Outlook
An intense area of low pressure will continue to swirl over the Great Lakes and lift northeast toward the Great Lakes and Northeastern US with areas of heavy rain through midweek. Areas of unsettled weather will once again move into the Western US.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, the extended precipitation outlook shows heavier precipitation across parts of the Central US and also in the Pacific Northwest.
Snowfall Potential
According to the ECMWF (European model), snowfall accumulations will wrap up near the Great Lakes Region, but we'll see quite a bit more snowfall in the high elevations in the Western US once again.
Climate Stories
"Deadly heatwaves threaten to reverse India's progress on poverty and inequality – new research"
"Record-breaking heatwaves in April 2022 put 90% of people in India at increased risk of going hungry, losing income or premature death, according to our new study. After 2022 was designated the hottest in 122 years, extreme heat has appeared early again this year with over 60% of India recording above-normal maximum temperatures for April, according to the country's Meteorological Department. El Niño, a natural climate event that can increase global temperatures, is also expected to occur this year. The increasing frequency of such deadly heatwaves could halt or even reverse India's progress in reducing poverty, food and income security and gender equality, harming the quality of life for over 1.4 billion Indians. As a natural phenomenon, extreme heat is projected to occur once every 30 years or so in the Indian subcontinent. This is no longer the case thanks to man-made climate change. India has suffered over 24,000 heatwave-related deaths since 1992 alone, with the May 1998 heatwave being one of the most devastating as it claimed over 3,058 lives."
See more from The Conversation HERE:
"Currently — May 1st, 2023"
"Happy May Day! So far this Spring has been a weird one in the United States, with trees leafing out either waaaay early (if you're in the Southeast) or waaaay late (if you're out West). That tracks with the wild Winter we've had too that left most of the Northeast with nary a snowflake and the California ski resorts buried up to the rooftops. These kinds of stuck weather patterns are an area of active research when it comes to climate change. If you're looking to become a climate scientist in your free time, this is one good area to study. Human-induced climate change caused East Africa's worst drought in at least 40 years, according to a new study from the World Weather Attribution initiative. This drought was brought upon by rising temperatures from the burning of fossil fuels and stunted much-needed rainfall to Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia, the study revealed. In fact, last fall, the rainfall was far below average for a fifth season in a row—a new record."
"California's Big Melt kicks off, likely to cause floods"
As they watch for a spring heat wave set to arrive in the final days of April, Californians are bracing for the first big surge of flooding from a near-record snowpack. Abundant spring sunshine and near-record temperatures in the 80s and 90s Fahrenheit were predicted to stretch from Thursday through the final weekend of the month. Daily record highs of 93°F in Sacramento and Redding may well be topped on Friday, and some record-warm daily minimums are possible as well. By Sunday, temperatures could approach 100°F in parts of the southern San Joaquin Valley.
See more from Yale Climate Connections HERE:
