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Isolated Severe Threats This Week
According to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, there is a risk of a few strong storms across parts of the state on Tuesday and Wednesday. The threat won't be very widespread, but there will certainly be a chance of large hail and damaging winds in some of the stronger storms.
Severe Risk For Tuesday
Severe Risk For Wednesday
Simulated Radar Through Midweek
The simulated radar from AM Tuesday to Midday Wednesday shows a stronger line of thunderstorms developing across NW Minnesota around midday Tuesday and drifting south through the afternoon and evening hours. There could be a few isolated strong storms across parts of Central Minnesota PM Wednesday as well.
2 Supermoons This August!!
August has two full Moons this year! You may have heard that there are four supermoons in a row this year; the August 1 supermoon is the second supermoon of this unusual sequence. "Supermoon" is a catchy term for what astronomers call "a perigean full Moon" which is when the full Moon happens at (or very near) the exact time when the Moon is closest to us in its orbit. A supermoon exceeds the disk size of an average-sized Moon by up to 8% and the brightness of an average-sized full Moon by some 16%. You may not perceive the difference in size, but a supermoon will appear brighter in the sky. The full Sturgeon Moon reaches its peak on Tuesday, August 1, 2023, and then we have a full Blue Moon on Wednesday, August 30, 2023—and it will be the closest supermoon of the year!
August 1: Full Sturgeon Moon
August's first full Moon will appear on the afternoon of Tuesday, August 1, reaching peak illumination at 2:32 P.M. Eastern Time. That evening, look toward the southeast after sunset to catch a glimpse of the Sturgeon Moon rising.
August 30: Blue Moon
Later in the month, a second full Moon, a Blue Moon will make an appearance. The term Blue Moon is most commonly used when we have two full Moons in a single month. On Wednesday, August 30, the Full Moon will peak at 9:36 P.M.
5th Driest May 15th Through July 30th on Record
It has been very dry across much of the region this summer with only 3.67" of rain falling at the MSP Airport from May 15th to July 31st. This is the 5th driest such period on record with the driest being 1.90" set in 1988. Interestingly, that same period last year was drier than this year.
60 Day Precipitation Anomaly
The map below shows the 60 day precipitation anomaly, which indicates that some locations are nearly -3.00" to nearly -7.00" below average (in red/pink) since mid/late May. There are a few locations across the state that have surpluses, but most locations are well below average.
Drought Update
Drought conditions continue to deepen across the region with a few pockets of Extreme Drought now showing up (in red). The last time that parts of Minnesota were in an Extreme Drought was back in mid December, nearly 7 months ago.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
The extended precipitation outlook shows minimal rainfall through next week. Areas of heavy rainfall are starting to look more likely as we approach the weekend.
Hottest Days of 2023 So Far
MSP Just had it's hottest week of 2023 with a number of 90F days. The hottest day of 2023 (so far) was on Thursday with a high of 96F and heat index values peaking around 105F to 110F. Uffda! There have been (20) 90F days this year. Our average number of 90F days is 14.
Average Number of 90F Days At MSP
Looking at the last 30 years, the average number of 90F days at the MSP Airport is (14). July is the hottest month with an average of (6) 90F days. We've only had (3) days in the 90s this July, but have already had (14) days in the 90s this year. Last year we had (18) days in the 90s and in 2021 there were (27) days in the 90s. The most number of 90F days in any single year was (44) set in 1988.
Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Tuesday
The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Tuesday, August 1st will be quiet and mostly dry with warm temps warming into the upper 80s, which will be above average for early August.
Meteograms For Minneapolis
The hourly temps through the day Tuesday shows readings starting in the mid 60s in the morning and topping out in the mid/upper 80s in the afternoon. The day will be mostly dry with a chance of showers and storms possible later in the day.
Weather Outlook For Tuesday
Temps on Tuesday will warm into the 80s across much of Minnesota, which will be at or slightly above average for this time of the year. It'll be a dry through the early part of the day with chances of thunderstorms moving in late.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
The 5 day temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows temps warming into the 90s once again, which will be nearly 10F above average for this time of the year.
Stickier Dewpoints Into the Week Ahead
The dewpoint forecast over the next few days shows a gradual increase as we approach midweek. Readings by Wednesday and Thursday will be quite sticky and humid, but it should last too long.
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended weather outlook for the Twin Cities shows warmer temps with readings in the upper 80s to the lower 90s with more humid weather. It looks like more unsettled weather will move in as we approach the weekend with locally heavy rainfall.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows a gradual warming trend into the 90s this week before cooling back to near average into the 2nd week of August.
Weather Outlook
There will still be a few aggressive thunderstorms across parts of the nation over the next 5 to 7 days. Some of the rainfall could be heavy across the Intermountain-West and the Front Range of the Rockies. There could also be heavy rains from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic States.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14-day temperature outlook shows cooler than average temps across the High Plains and the Midwest. Warmer than average readings will continue across the Southern US.
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
The extended precipitation outlook shows more active weather across much of the nation and especially in the Pacific Northwest. Meanwhile, folks in the Southwest will be drier and quieter.
Sweaty Corn May Be Amping Up The Heat Index
By Paul Douglas
Minnesota sweetcorn is extra-good this summer. Your honor, let the record show that I am pro-corn and grateful for farmers, Minnesota's first true entrepreneurs, taking risks with uncertain returns.
That said, corn "sweats" at night, releasing amazing amounts of water into the air in a process known as evapo-transpiration. Last week dew points in Iowa reached 86F, making it feel like 125 degrees! Yes, summer heat indices are higher in and near the Midwestern Corn Belt. Who knew?
5" of rain over 5 days would be amazing, but I'm giving thanks for recent (smoke-free) sunshine and moderate temperatures. We heat up to 90F or beyond by midweek, but dry weather prevails through at least Friday.
It's a little early talking about weekend weather but the weather models I'm looking at consistently show a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms on Saturday. If you have outdoor plans keep an eye on the forecast and have a Plan B.
Heavy, widespread rain may not return until October. Any rain now would be most welcome.
Extended Forecast
TUESDAY: Warm sunshine. Winds: SE 8-13. High 86.
TUESDAY NIGHT: More clouds. Winds: SE 5-10. Low: 70.
WEDNESDAY: Hot sunshine, more humidity. Winds: S 8-13. High: 90.
THURSDAY: Yes, it's hot enough for me. Sunny. Winds: NW 5-10. Wake-up: 72. High 92.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny, stray T-storm? Winds: E 5-10. Wake-up: 73. High 91.
SATURDAY: Strong/severe T-storms possible. Winds: SE 10-20. Wake-up: 70. High: 83.
SUNDAY: Sunny peeks, breezy and cooler. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 66. High: 81.
MONDAY: Some sun, PM T-storm. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 64. High: 82.
This Day in Weather History
August 1st
1955: A thunderstorm in Becker County dumps a foot of rain at Callaway.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
August 1st
Average High: 83F (Record: 101F set in 1988)
Average Low: 65F (Record: 49F set in 1962)
Record Rainfall: 2.03" set in 1975
Record Snowfall: NONE
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
August 1st
Sunrise: 5:58am
Sunset: 8:39pm
Hours of Daylight: ~14 hours & 41 minutes
Daylight LOST since yesterday: 2 Minutes & 22 Seconds
Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 21st): ~ 55 minutes
Moon Phase for July 31st at Midnight
0.5 Days After Full "Sturgeon" Moon - Aug. 1 at 1:32 p.m. CDT - The Sturgeon Moon, when this large fish of the Great Lakes and other major bodies of water like Lake Champlain is most readily caught. A few tribes knew it as the Full Red Moon because the moon rises looking reddish through sultry haze, or the Green Corn Moon or Grain Moon.
National High Temps on Tuesday
Temperatures on Tuesday will be very steamy across the Southern US, where readings will warm into triple digits. Record highs will be possible for some across the Deep South with highs in the triple digits.
National Weather Tuesday
The weather outlook on Tuesday will feature showers and storms from the Desert Southwest the High Plains. Some of the storms could be a little on the strong side with locally heavy rainfall.
National Weather Outlook
The weather outlook through Wednesday shows scattered storms from the Desert Southwest to the Midwest. Some of the storms could be strong to severe with locally heavy rainfall.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, the extended precipitation outlook shows heavier precipitation across parts of the Central US.
Climate Stories
"Extreme heatwaves threaten world's food security, and other nature and climate news you need to read this week"
"This weekly round-up contains the key nature and climate news from the past week. Top nature and climate stories: Extreme heatwaves threaten world's food security; Canada's wildfire smoke reducing air quality for millions; Climate talks between US and China produce modest progress. 1. Extreme heatwaves threaten world's food security, scientists say As global "hottest-ever" limits continue to be broken, scientists warn of intensifying heat waves affecting the planet's ability to provide us with food. July saw the world's hottest day ever recorded as Europe, the US and China experienced life-threateningly high temperatures. Researchers predict that the growing intensity and frequency of heatwaves will cause crop failures on land and lead to ecosystems and marine life dying in the world's oceans."
"Teaching climate change is tough. We are here to help."
"A 2021 UNESCO study found that while 95% of teachers consider climate change education important to teach, only 40% feel confident to teach it. Students are equally dismayed. A 2019 Eurobarometer survey found that 41% of 15-20 year olds in the EU feel that climate change is not adequately taught in schools. News Decoder partnered with the Climate Academy to put forward solutions to this persistent problem with the Erasmus+ project, The Writing's on the Wall. To close that confidence gap and demystify teaching about climate change, we've created innovative, accessible educational resources that empower young people with knowledge, skills, voice and a platform to inform and influence others through art and journalism. Resources range from short videos and articles to ready-made lessons and small group activities."
See more from News Decoder HERE:
"Bumps in the Air: What's Climate Change Got to Do With It?"
"Cups bouncing off trays, flight crews strapping on to their seats midflight, bumps in the sky: Into this zig-zagging volatility we fly. That is, if you make it off the ground. This past weekend — high season for summer travel — about 2,450 flights were cancelled across the country, driven by the sequence of rollicking extremes wreaking chaos in our lower atmosphere. In July they came like plagues: the Canadian wildfires that choked much of New England; the rainstorms that deluged New England and the Eastern Seaboard; and the blistering heat wave across the Southwest. All these events came in a two week span in July — atmospheric dissonance raged. Of course they all overlapped, and as if we need reminding, they're all part of a continental (and global) weather system: Havoc wreaked in New England does not take long to ripple across the flight patterns in and out of L.A. or any other destination. Is it bad luck, or is it a pattern?"
See more from Capital and Main HERE:
