Paul Douglas On Weather
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August Is Almost Over...

Where has the summer gone? Feels like just yesterday that kids were getting out of school and everyone was making their summer plans. How many of my plans got done? Not enough! Anyway, as we look at August 1st-30th, the average temperature has been only about three degrees above average despite that hot stretch of weather we saw earlier in the month. That makes it the 12th warmest August to date. While we have received 2.29" of rain, it's still below average and the 45th driest August to date.


Drought Update

After a fairly dry week across the state, the drought is back to expanding. Extreme Drought (D3 of 4) is now in place across 10.06% of the state, in parts of southeastern Minnesota (including Rochester and Austin) and north-central Minnesota (from the Twin Ports west to the Brainerd Lakes area). The other "lower" drought categories also saw slight increases week-to-week, with 99.91% of the state at least abnormally dry. The only section of the state that isn't is along the North Dakota border in Wilkin and Clay Counties.

Most of the metro went from Moderate to Severe Drought this week, and across the state, we only saw a steady or worsening drought.


Friday: First Day Of A 90F Degree Stretch

As many of you start the extended Labor Day weekend on Friday, it'll be a nice but warm start to it. Morning temperatures start off in the mid-60s with highs topping off in the low 90s - the start of a stretch of 90s through the Labor Day weekend. Mainly sunny skies and breezy conditions are expected during the day.

Most of the state will be at least 10F degrees to 15F degrees above average on Friday with lots of sunshine and highs in the 80s and 90s. The cool spot will be close to Lake Superior - and even there it'll be in the 70s.

Breezy winds out of the south help lift those temperatures into the 80s and 90s across much of the state. Here in the metro, wind gusts of 25-30 mph are expected.


Record Warmth Possible For Labor Day Weekend

Strong southerly winds will help boost temperatures this Labor Day extended weekend in the metro, with mid to upper 90s expected under lots of sunshine. The only saving grace to this warmth is that it doesn't look as humid as the stretch earlier in August (50s to mid-60s for dewpoints vs. 70s), so it'll be more the heat than the humidity this time. To note, the 98F on Sunday would tie for the third warmest temperature during the month of September, and 97F on Monday would tie for ninth (or tenth, if we do see 98F or higher on Sunday). The metro has only hit 100F once in the month of September - 104F on September 10, 1931.

While we may not see the second 100F of September on record in the metro, several record highs are expected across the region - mainly on Sunday and Labor Day Monday. You can see on Sunday it'll be around 90F all the way up to the International Border.


Insured Weather Disaster Losses Increasing
By Paul Douglas

Documenting a fire-hose of weather disasters around the planet is the rough equivalent of taking a leisurely stroll through the Book of Revelations. Has it always been this way, but with social media we are connected 24/7? Awareness may be part of it, but extreme weather events are increasing.

According to the Wall Street Journal, worldwide insured losses from natural disasters have reached $120 billion (adjusted for inflation) in 4 of the past 6 years. More people living in high-risk areas (near warm, hurricane-prone waters)? Yep. A warming planet amping up storms? Yep.

Some of that simmering warmth returns in the coming days with an early-September streak of 90s. 100F is not out of the question close to home Sunday, but less water in the air will make it feel like 105F, not the 115F heat indices we enjoyed a few weeks ago. Good times.

No significant rain, just a warm bias into winter, thanks to El Nino.

An extra serving of heat and wildfire smoke? Yes. Still better than quakes and storms with names.


Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

FRIDAY: Sunny and hot. Wake up 66. High 91. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind S 10-20 mph.

SATURDAY: What September? Sizzling sun. Wake up 73. High 96. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind SW 15-25 mph.

SUNDAY: Blazing sun with record heat. Wake up 76. High 99. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind SW 10-20 mph.

MONDAY: Sweaty sunshine. More records. Wake up 77. High 98. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind S 15-25 mph.

TUESDAY: Still steamy. Slight thunder chance. Wake up 76. High 91. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind SW 10-20 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Cooler with a stray T-storm. Wake up 65. High 78. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind NE 10-20 mph.

THURSDAY: Some clearing, comfortable again. Wake up 60. High 77. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NE 8-13 mph.


Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
September 1st

*Length Of Day: 13 hours, 15 minutes, and 24 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 3 minutes and 0 seconds

*When Do We Drop Below 13 Hours Of Sunlight? September 7th (12 hours, 57 minutes, 11 seconds)
*When Are Sunrises At/After 7:00 AM? September 23rd (7:01 AM)
*When Are Sunsets At/Before 7:00 PM? September 28th (6:59 PM)

This Day in Weather History
September 1st

1926: Perhaps the most intense rainfall rate ever in downtown Minneapolis falls on this date. 1.02 inches of rain is recorded in six minutes, starting at 2:59pm in the afternoon according to the Minneapolis Weather Bureau. The deluge, accompanied with winds of 42 mph, causes visibility to be reduced to a few feet at times and stops all streetcar and automobile traffic. At the intersection of Second and Sixth Streets in downtown Minneapolis, rushing water tears a manhole cover off, and a geyser of water shoots 20 feet in the air. Hundreds of wooden paving blocks are uprooted and float onto neighboring lawns, much to the delight of barefooted children seen scampering among the blocks after the rain ends.

1894: The Great Hinckley Fire. Drought conditions start a massive fire that begins near Mille Lacs and spreads to the east. The firestorm destroys Hinckley and Sandstone and burns a forest area the size of the Twin Cities Metropolitan Area. Smoke from the fires brings shipping on Lake Superior to a standstill.

1807: The earliest known comprehensive Minnesota weather record begins near Pembina. The temperature at midday is 86 degrees, with a 'strong wind until sunset.'


National Weather Forecast

On Friday, hot weather will start to build once again in the central United States heading into the Labor Day weekend. Storms are possible in the Southeast, partly due to an area of low pressure in the Gulf. Monsoonal storms are possible in the west, and a system moving through the region will help to spark some more.

Pockets of heavy rain from Thursday through Saturday are expected in the Mid-Atlantic (from Idalia moving away on Thursday), the northern and eastern Gulf Coast, and in parts of the Great Basin and Desert Southwest. In these areas, rainfall amounts of 3"+ are possible.


Hurricane Idalia is yet another test of America's aging power infrastructure

More from Axios: "In the immediate aftermath of Hurricane Idalia, getting the power back on as quickly as possible will be one of the most pressing challenges — and any major delays will once again call into question the resilience of the country's aging electrical infrastructure. Why it matters: Power outages can be one of the longest-lasting and dangerous results of major hurricanes, sometimes persisting well after any storm surge and high winds subside. 2021's Hurricane Ida, for example, knocked out power for more than a million residents across Louisiana and nearby states; full restoration took over two weeks."

'You can't survive this': Hurricane Idalia strikes Florida's most vulnerable coast

More from Grist: "This year's first major hurricane made landfall early Wednesday morning, bringing 125 mile per hour winds to Florida's Big Bend region. Officials and residents told Grist that the sparsely populated coastal area, which stretches from near Gainesville to just south of Tallahassee, was wholly unprepared for Hurricane Idalia, a Category 3 storm fueled by exceptionally hot waters in the Gulf of Mexico. The area hasn't been struck directly by a hurricane in more than a century. "We've never seen anything like this," said Mandy Lemmermen, the battalion chief for the Dixie County fire department, who was hunkered down in an operations center in the county seat of Cross City when she spoke to Grist on Tuesday evening. "You can't survive this." After taking shape in the Gulf of Mexico, Idalia underwent a process known as "rapid intensification," swiftly strengthening from a tropical storm to a Category 4 hurricane as it passed over the hot waters of the Gulf of Mexico, then weakening just before it made landfall. The most devastating Atlantic hurricanes of the past few years, including 2022's Ian and 2021's Ida, have all undergone this process. Scientists believe that climate change is making it more common."

Biden pledges $95 million to shore up Hawaii's electric grid after deadly wildfires

More from CNBC: "The federal government will provide $95 million to shore up Hawaii's electric grid in the wake of deadly wildfires, President Joe Biden announced Wednesday. The money "means investments to make sure electricity can continue to reach homes, hospitals and water stations, even during intense storms," Biden said at a White House event on disaster recovery. The funding will also enable the Pacific island state to bury more power lines, replace old electrical poles and clear overgrown brush around them, said Biden. The news comes as Hawaii's main electric utility, Hawaiian Electric, is facing a dozen lawsuits alleging that the company's practices were partly responsible for the deadly fires, a claim the utility denies."


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Thanks for checking in and have a great day!

- D.J. Kayser