The Tsuyoshi Nishioka experiment has been a failure for the Twins, at least so far, but that won't stop them from signing other players from the Japanese professional leagues.
Mike Radcliff, the Twins vice president of player personnel, said to turn their back on Japan now would be like ignoring all players from Stanford, or any college, just because a high-round draft pick from that school was unsuccessful.
"I know a lot of people are wary with our investment in Japan after our involvement with Nishioka," Radcliff said Tuesday. "But we'll continue to scout Japan and every other market we've explored. There's too much talent there. We've added new guys to the list for this year and beyond."
The Twins and other teams are studying a new crop of Japanese players that's ready to move overseas, a group including Yu Darvish, who is already one of the most talented pitchers in the world.
Darvish, 25, figures to be out of the Twins price range with a tag expected to reach $100 million, including the posting fee. But another pitcher they've followed closely is Hisashi Iwakuma, 30, who starred in the 2009 World Baseball Classic.
Twins General Manager Terry Ryan was scouting under then-GM Bill Smith during the 2009 WBC and watched Iwakuma go 3-0 with a 1.35 ERA, leading Japan to the championship. At his best, Iwakuma is comparable to Carl Pavano. He isn't overpowering, but he has great command, keeps the ball down and keeps hitters off-balance with a split-fingered fastball.
Last fall, Iwakuma tried coming overseas under the posting system. The Twins made the second-highest bid to the Rakuten Golden Eagles, though it paled compared to the $19 million bid Oakland made to secure exclusive negotiating rights.
The Athletics failed to close the deal with Iwakuma, as the righthander drove a hard bargain, knowing he could become a free agent this fall and avoid the posting system this time.
The Twins are trying to bolster their starting rotation, so an Iwakuma signing seems logical, but he missed most of June and July because of a sore right shoulder and his velocity was down after he returned. He finished 6-7 with a 2.42 ERA, recording 90 strikeouts for Rakuten, with 19 walks in 119 innings.
Iwakuma recently went to Phoenix to begin acclimating himself to the United States. He has been working out but not throwing. Teams that bid for him will be gambling that his shoulder isn't an issue moving forward.
Eventually, Iwakuma could land a three-year deal at somewhere between $5 million and $8 million per year.
Another pitcher expected to move from Japan is lefthander Tsuyoshi Wada. Like Iwakuma, he's a 30-year-old free agent, and he posted even better numbers, going 16-5 with a 1.51 ERA.
But as a finesse lefthander who projects as a No. 5 starter, or even a long reliever, he likely won't command big money.
Darvish, Iwakuma and Wada give teams options beyond a free agent starting pitching market highlighted by C.J. Wilson, Mark Buehrle, Roy Oswalt and Edwin Jackson.
Ryan spent more than two weeks in Japan this September before moving back into the GM role. Though the Twins are unlikely to bid on another Japanese position player now, other teams will consider center fielder Norichika Aoki and shortstop Hiroyuki Nakajima.
Many think Nakajima will be a better major-league player than Nishioka, or at least a better hitter, but the Twins haven't given up on Nishioka.
"The guy is over in Japan working his tail off to show he can be a good player over here," Radcliff said. "Yes, we definitely believe there's more to come."
The Twins committed about $15.5 million to acquire Nishioka last offseason, including the $5.3 million posting fee paid to the Chiba Lotte Marines. Nishioka broke his leg in the season's sixth game, missed more than two months, and finished the year batting .226 with a .278 on-base percentage and two stolen bases in 68 games.
On Wednesday, the Twins will announce their two-year, $6.75 million deal with 37-year-old middle infielder Jamey Carroll, but they still intend to let Nishioka fight for a starting job in spring training.
"I have a lot of confidence in our evaluators that are responsible for the Far East," Ryan said. "They saw [Nishioka] a lot over the years. We probably have a guy here that is much, much better than anybody realizes because he just was not healthy enough to play the game."
